Supporters of the troubled Kyoto Protocol will be looking keenly for any sign from Russia that it will end its hesitation waltz and finally ratify the deal, providing the push that will transform it into an international treaty.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been sending out mixed signals for months.

On one side, Moscow has said it will "closely examine" ratification while on the other, according to diplomats, it has told the European Union (EU) it wants to link ratification to its bid to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

In a phone interview with AFP ahead of the December 1-12 meeting, European Environment Commissioner Margot Wallstrom bluntly ruled out making any further moves towards Russia.

"It's a matter of believing or not in their promise to actually live up to their promise to ratify (Kyoto) and if they are able to live up to that commitment," Wallstrom said.

"(...) I think that we've already made all the concessions necessary to Russia... we gave them everything they wanted in the end. So the concessions are already made."

Kyoto, the keystone of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), requires industrialised signatories to cut emissions of "greenhouse gases" -- six types of carbon gases, mainly emitted by fossil fuels, that trap the Sun's heat, thus warming the atmosphere and driving a motor of potentially catastrophic climate change.

The protocol's framework was approved by the United States in 1997 under Bill Clinton's administration, but one of Bush's first acts after taking office was to walk away from it.

That placed Kyoto's very survival at doubt -- not just for ratification, but also because it deprived the deal's planned market in carbon emissions of its biggest purchaser, for gas-guzzling America is the biggest greenhouse-gas polluter of all.

The Milan talks take place under the umbrella of the UNFCCC, of which the United States remains a member, even though it has abandoned Kyoto.

The meeting gathers 4,000 delegates, including a high-level "segment" on December 10 and 11 that is expected to be attended by environment ministers from around 80 countries.

Although no declaration is due to be released, the forum should give a critical feel for assessing Kyoto's survival chances.

It could also give an idea as to how far the big developing countries, such as China and India, are willing to sign up for detailed emissions cuts of their own when the second Kyoto round is negotiated.

As a sweetener to poorer countries, the EU is likely to give details of a 410-million-dollar package, sketched at a key conference in Bonn in 2001, to help the developing world cope with the impact of climate change.

The present Kyoto round -- if it is implemented -- schedules emissions cuts by a deadline of 2008-2012 compared with the levels that prevailed in 1990.

The latest figures show that with rare exceptions, the industrialised countries have enormous work to do to meet their commitments.

Even though Kyoto's political future is unclear, man-made global warming is no longer in doubt among mainstream scientists, and more and more businesses are taking an interest in it, sensing the potential for profit.

Around 200 presentations are scheduled to be made at Milan by corporations, research units and government agencies, eager to promote their work in this field.

TERRA.WIRE