"Most insurance and re-insurance companies have no doubt that the rising tide of losses from weather-related disasters is linked with climate change," said Thomas Loster of German reinsurance giant Munich Re.

"The possibility of a one-trillion-dollar-loss year is one scenario out of many, but whatever the precise figures the losses are already large and set to increase."

The trillion-dollar projection comprises total losses -- as compared with only insured losses -- from droughts, storm surges, hurricanes and floods.

It is sketched as a peak year in a scenario stretching until 2040 and is based on the calculation that the long-term costs from extreme natural disaster events are doubling every 12 years.

The figure was compiled by a financial firm, Andlug Consulting, for the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP's) Financial Initiative, which gathers UN experts and leading actors in the insurance sector.

In 2002, insurance firms considered 150 billion dollars to be the likely maximum annual cost of big weather damage, said Loster, of Munich Re Foundation, a not-for-profit body that works in developing countries.

But this estimate has had to be massively revised, he said.

In 2005, the cost was 210 billion dollars, 120 billion of which was inflicted by Hurricane Katrina, he said.

"Katrina was the first (weather event) to create climate refugees," said Loster. He noted that the cost of this storm could have been even higher, as the wealthiest parts of New Orleans had been largely spared from the flood.

The report was issued on the eve of a three-day conference of the world's environment ministers, charged with establishing the next steps in tackling climate change. They are meeting to set the seal on the November 6-17 talks under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Global warming is the term used to describe the rise in atmospheric temperatures driven by greenhouse gases, the invisible byproduct of burning oil, gas and coal.

Scientists have predicted for years that this temperature rise would begin to affect the climate system, and many -- probably a majority -- are convinced this is already the case.

Few, though, are willing to link a single big storm, such as Katrina, with the long-term phenomenon of climate change, and point out that the economic and human cost of these big disasters has been magnified by development in coastal areas.

In Florida, which bears the brunt of tropical storms which make landfall in the US, the population has risen from three million in 1950 to 15 million today.

So far in 2006, the economic losses from bad weather events have been around 30 billion dollars, led by Typhoon Kaemi, which struck China in July with a nine-billion-dollar whack, said Loster.

Andlug Consulting's scenario noted that so-called great disasters appear in clusters every three years.

"Making allowance for such clusters, and for the inclusion of all costs, it seems likely that there will be a 'peak year' that will record losses of one trillion before 2040. In fact, since so much development is taking place in coastal zones, the figure may arrive considerably before 2040," the report warned.

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