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Climate change: Main points from IPCC report BANGKOK, May 4 (AFP) May 04, 2007 Following are key points from a landmark document on tackling greenhouse gas emissions, issued here on Friday by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
- Greenhouse gases rose by 70 percent between 1970 and 2004, from 28.7 to 49 billion tonnes per year in carbon dioxide (C02) or its equivalent. From 1990 to 2004, the increase was 28 percent. - CO2, which now accounts for more than three-quarters of emissions, increased by 80 percent from 1970 and 28 percent from 1990. - The biggest rise has been in energy supply, an increase of 145 percent from 1970-2004, followed by transport (120 percent). - Greater energy efficiency has been hugely outweighed by the rise in global income and the world's population, which have added to the burning of oil, coal and gas. - On present trends, emissions are projected to rise 25-90 percent by 2030, compared with levels in 2000. - Between two-thirds and three-quarters of this increase is projected to come from developing countries, although their per capita emission levels will remain well below those of rich countries. - Developed countries accounted for 20 percent of the global population in 2004 but 46 percent of global greenhouse-gas emissions.
The deeper and faster the cut, the higher the cost. But the bill can be relatively modest and existing technologies, or those within reach, can be used. The cost of acting now should weighed against the risk that delay will drive up the cost in the medium and long term, says the report. It highlights these scenarios among others: - Stabilising emissions at 445-535 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 equivalent would limit the overall rise in global warming since pre-industrial times to 2.0-2.8 C (3.6-5.0 F). The cost in 2030 would be less than 0.12 percentage points of annual world GDP growth. - Stabilisation at 535-590ppm: warming would be restricted to 2.8-3.2 C (5.0-5.8 F) over pre-industrial times, clipping less than 0.1 points of the GDP growth rate in 2030. - Stabilisation at 590-710ppm: warming would be 3.2-4.0 C (5.8-7.2 F), costing less than 0.06 percent of GDP growth rate in 2030.
The report emphasises a "price for carbon," or passing onto producers and consumers a price that would indirectly reflect the environmental damage from using fossil fuels. A sustained price encourages energy efficiency and the switch to cleaner sources. - Possibilities include a regulatory approach, taxes and charges and a carbon market, where polluters can swap tradable permits. Voluntary agreements between governments and industry are "politically attractive" but most have "not achieved significant emissions reductions beyond business as usual." - Carbon pricing would be especially effective in the power sector. A sustained price of 20-50 dollars per tonne of CO2 would transform the power supply industry, giving renewables a share of up to 35 percent of the market by 2030, nearly double that of 2005. - Renewable energies such as wind, solar and geothermal should be encouraged. Options for helping them include producer subsidies, preferential tariffs and obligations for buying from these sources. - Promoting energy efficiency. Tougher building standards, mandatory fuel economy, biofuel blending and investment in better public transport are among the policy options. In buildings, about 30 percent of emissions could be avoided by 2030 "with net economic benefit." - Carbon sequestration, a controversial prototype technology by which underground chambers store CO2 emissions from coal-fired plants, has "the potential to make an important contribution" to mitigating emissions by 2030, although technical, economic and regulatory factors will wield a big influence. - Nuclear power, which accounted for 16 percent of electricity supply in 2005, could have an 18 percent share by 2030 with a CO2 price of up to 50 dollars per tonne, "but safety, weapons proliferation and waste remain as concerns." - Geo-engineering, or unconventional schemes that seek to offset global warming by setting up a sunshade of mirrors in space or sowing the oceans with iron to encourage uptake of atmospheric CO2, is bluntly rejected. "(These) remain largely speculative and unproven, and with the risk of unknown side-effects," says the report.
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