The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its annual review of world affairs that governments needed to do more to tackle a resurgent Al-Qaeda as well as limit the damage from global warming.

Its 400-page report assessed that global events from May 2006 to June 2007 were "discouraging," expressing disappointment that bloody violence in Iraq and Afghanistan had not been curbed and the Middle East crisis had deteriorated.

In part, it attributed events like North Korea's alleged nuclear missile tests and Iran's continued intransigence over its disputed atomic power programme on a White House weakened by its post-war policy in Iraq.

But on Islamist extremism, it said the United States and its allies had fundamentally failed to deal with Al-Qaeda, whose ideology inspired by Osama bin Laden had now taken such root that it would take decades to defeat.

Evidence of their failure to tackle the root causes rather than the symptoms of such extremism was seen in a worrying increase in radicalisation among European-based Muslims in the last 12 months, the IISS said.

"The threat from Islamist terrorism remains as high as ever and looks set to get worse," the report said.

The year to mid-2007 showed Al-Qaeda had become "adaptable and resilient," planning and co-ordinating large-scale attacks in the West despite losing some key figures, it added.

Smaller jihadist groups had sworn formal allegiance to Al-Qaeda while alleged plots uncovered in Europe, Canada, the Gulf and north Africa "point to a growing trend towards radicalisation within the Islamic world," it added.

Extremist violence was also fuelled by sectarian bloodshed between Sunni and Shia Muslims in Iraq and NATO forces' difficulty containing Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan.

At the same time, the US-run detention camp at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba continued to be a rallying call for disaffected Muslims bent on violence, as did its controversial policy of extraordinary rendition of security suspects.

The IISS assessed that the West has had some success, such as Sunni tribal leaders rejecting extremism in Anbar province in Iraq or the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the self-styled leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, in a US air strike.

But more work was needed to bridge the gap between Muslim and non-Muslim, with efforts concentrated on interaction and integration, it said.

"The long-term challenge is to confront the extremist ideology which gives rise to terrorism, and which Al-Qaeda has shown great skill and ingenuity at propagating," it added.

Meanwhile, the think-tank said there was now a growing -- but still not universal -- recognition that global warming exists, may be man-made and that urgent action was needed to tackle the rise in harmful emissions.

Unchecked, the effects of global warming would be "catastrophic -- on the level of nuclear war -- if not in this century, certainly in the next," it said.

Temperature rises had important consequences for global security, having the potential to increase migration, water and food shortages and potentially exacerbate existing flashpoints and tensions, said the IISS.

In a stark warning, it said action taken by individual countries and the international community in the next few years would determine whether the second half of the 21st century would see instability, human tragedy and war or an easing of and adjustment to climate change, with an emphasis on multi-lateralism.

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