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India, Pakistan and threats of a water war: what we know Srinagar, India, April 26 (AFP) Apr 26, 2025 India, furious after a deadly attack, has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, with Islamabad warning any attempt to stop water flows would be considered an "act of war". The 65-year-old pact was considered a rare diplomatic success story between bitter nuclear-armed rivals who have fought multiple conflicts. But one thing experts on both sides of the border agree on is that while important, its suspension will have limited immediate impact on water.
New Delhi suspended its part in the treaty after gunmen in Indian-run Kashmir targeting tourists killed 26 men on April 22. India accused Pakistan of supporting "cross border terrorism", claims rejected by Islamabad. Pakistan, which argues India is flouting international law, said it would respond with "full force" to any attempt to stop the water.
The issue of water is deeply sensitive for both nations. For parched Pakistan, the water is critical for consumption and agriculture. Under the deal, it was agreed that India controls three eastern Indus tributaries outright -- the Ravi, the Sutlej and the Beas. India has the unlimited right to use them for irrigation and power generation. While most is used, water still flows to Pakistan, especially during the rainy season when dams are full. Three western rivers -- the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus -- are allocated to Pakistan. India however can exploit them for non-consumptive uses, such as hydroelectric power. Indian dams under construction on the Chenab are expected to increase its use.
"Any safe infrastructure to divert water, beyond what is happening now, takes years, mostly more than a decade". India's existing dams do not have the capacity to block or divert water. "India cannot immediately stop the flow of these rivers, as it is technically unfeasible and economically not viable", Pakistan water expert Hassan Abbas said. The treaty's most important role was a dispute resolution mechanism, but Thakkar argued that it was already "more or less in limbo" for several years.
"The public was asking for retaliation, but that military retaliation takes time," Donthi said. "It may take a week, two weeks, but there was a need for an immediate reaction". The Indian public will view it as "a collective punishment that's being imposed on Pakistan for the act", Donthi said. Hindu-nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi had already threatened to use water as a weapon in 2016 after an attack in Indian-run Kashmir. "Blood and water cannot flow together," he said at the time.
The precious resource is being sucked up by increasing populations and surging agricultural requirements, as well as hydropower projects fuelled by rising energy needs. Building further dams that could hinder the flow more significantly is a tough task in rugged mountain terrain, but not impossible. The growing impacts of climate change, shifting weather systems and melting glaciers in the wider Himalaya region means water is becoming more valuable than ever.
It noted that China controls the headwaters of the Brahmaputra, the vast river key to India's northeast. "By suspending the treaty and acting unilaterally, it sets a precedent that could one day be used against it", it read. burs-pjm/mtp |
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