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TRADE WARS
Allies, rivals alike hit out at Trump trade tariffs
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) March 9, 2018

Trump tariffs chip away at world's free trade credo
Paris (AFP) March 9, 2018 - Donald Trump's tariff announcement this week is another nail in the coffin of a global free trade ideology that had gone mostly unchallenged for decades, analysts say.

But cracks in the belief that free trade is best had been visible even before the US President pulled the trigger on steel and aluminium tariffs, and institutions defending free trade have found themselves increasingly overwhelmed by countries unwilling to play ball.

The US leader's move has compounded concerns raised in recent years by China's persistent overcapacity and Germany's chronic trade surpluses -- contrary to the prescriptions of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Other entities whose global role is being called into question are the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, both keystones of globalisation.

"This is effectively the Washington Consensus that is being called into question," said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at credit insurance firm Euler Hermes.

- Open borders in doubt -

The Washington Consensus refers to the neo-liberal economic policy prescriptions, including open trade and investment, that developing nations in crisis have been urged to pursue to receive help from the IMF and World Bank since the 1980s.

"Today, there is doubt that the opening of borders is always beneficial," Subran told AFP.

Triggering threats of retaliatory measures, the move on tariffs for steel and aluminium has brought the world to the brink of a trade war -- which Trump said would be "good and easy to win".

"There is a problem with global governance," said one participant in major trade negotiations, on condition of anonymity.

"The WTO should be the proper tool, but it let China develop these surpluses and not respect its commitments," said the negotiator, pointing in particular to state subsidies for industry.

Even IMF chief Christine Lagarde admitted she had some sympathy for the US president's frustration with the global trade system.

Trump "has good reasons to protest against the current situation," she said on France's RTL radio, a day before the US president signed the tariff order.

"There are countries that don't always respect WTO agreements, which have technology transfer requirements, one thinks naturally of China, but China isn't the only country to have such practices," said Lagarde in a tacit acknowledgement that global trade rules haven't always been respected in recent years.

Jennifer Hillman, who previously served at the WTO adjudicating trade disputes, raised the possibility that Trump's true purpose is "to create a crisis in the WTO or... lay the groundwork for the United States to withdraw".

- Undermining the WTO -

The United States has been putting sticks into the spokes at the WTO by blocking appointment of new judges, which is causing longer delays to resolve trade disputes.

That could work to the Trump administration's advantage as it erects protectionist measures which risk falling foul of WTO rules.

"The United States may be trying to use that queue to its advantage so it never has to come into compliance," said Hillman.

Such a strategy would, in turn, frustrate other countries who hope the WTO to seek redress against the US for unfair trade measures.

United States trading partners, led by Asian powerhouses China and Japan, lashed out Friday at controversial tariffs on foreign steel and aluminium signed off by President Donald Trump, as fears grew of a global trade war.

Close ally Japan warned the tariffs of 25 percent on imported steel and 10 percent on aluminium "could have a grave impact on the economic relationship" between the world's top and third-largest economies.

Japan's top government spokesman Yoshihide Suga said the move could harm the global trading system and the entire world economy and said Tokyo would urge the US to give the country an exemption.

The world's second-biggest economy, China, was also vocal in its opposition, deriding the tariffs as "a serious attack on normal international trade order."

In a sharp reversal from decades of a US-led drive towards more open trade, Trump declared on Thursday that America had been "ravaged by aggressive foreign trade practices."

"It's really an assault on our country," he blasted, announcing the tariffs on the metals used in everything from cars to construction, roads to railways.

- 'Real friends' -

Trump said the tariffs -- which will come into effect after 15 days -- will not initially apply to Canada and Mexico, and that close partners on security and trade could negotiate exemptions.

Canada was the single-largest US source of steel last year, followed by Brazil, South Korea, Russia, Mexico, Japan and Germany.

The US neighbour to the north was also by far the largest supplier of alumina and aluminium, followed by China, Russia and the United Arab Emirates.

Trump had indicated he would be flexible toward "real friends," and during the signing confirmed Canada and Mexico would be exempted permanently if the ongoing renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement is successful.

But both Mexico and Canada rejected Trump's linkage of the levies to ongoing NAFTA talks.

Canada's foreign affairs minister termed the two things "separate issues" while Mexico's economy ministry said "the negotiation of the NAFTA should not be subject to conditions outside the process."

The US leader had also added Australia to a list of likely carve-outs, as a "great country" and "long-term partner."

- 'All necessary steps' -

However, he took aim at Germany, reviving a longstanding gripe that European NATO allies do not pay their fair share.

"Many of the countries that treat us the worst on trade and on the military are our allies, as they call them," he complained.

The EU, Brazil and Britain were also quick to launch broadsides against the tariffs, which are worth billions of dollars.

The top European Union trade official Cecilia Malmstroem insisted the entire bloc "should be excluded" from the tariffs as a "close ally," vowing to "seek more clarity" from Washington.

Britain blasted the tariffs as "not the right way" to tackle the problem of global overcapacity in steel and said it would work with the EU to consider the scope for exemptions.

The EU has promised tariffs on items from steel to peanut butter, bourbon and denim -- most of which are produced in states that Trump needs to win re-election.

Major producer Brazil immediately vowed to take "all necessary steps" in order to "protect its rights and interests" in response to the US move.

- Off the cuff -

Last week Trump stunned the world -- and his own aides -- with an off-the-cuff announcement of his plan, even before White House lawyers judged the legality of the tariffs.

Trump said he was merely fulfilling a campaign promise, saying he had been talking about perceived trade injustices "a long time, a lot longer than my political career."

And while the full economic impact remains unknown, the political fallout was swift with the top Republican in Congress Paul Ryan publicly denouncing Trump's move, and vowing to push him to narrow its focus to "countries and practices that violate trade law."

The move also sparked the resignation of top economic advisor Gary Cohn in protest.

And even as Trump approved the tariffs, 11 partners in the Asia-Pacific were in Santiago, Chile, to sign a multilateral trade deal embraced by president Barack Obama but rejected by Trump.

However, stock markets in Asia rallied as traders said the tariffs could have been worse. Equities were also buoyed by the news that Trump would meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.


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TRADE WARS
Despite tariffs, Trump takes softer tone with China
Washington (AFP) March 8, 2018
While slapping duties on steel and aluminum imports, President Donald Trump struck a more conciliatory tone towards China, pointing to negotiations under way to trim Washington's soaring bilateral trade deficit with Beijing. "We're negotiating now with China. We're in the midst of a big negotiation. I don't know that anything is going to come of it," Trump said at the White House while rolling out the new trade barriers. "They have been very helpful. President Xi, I have great respect for, lot o ... read more

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