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CLIMATE SCIENCE
As climate talks sputter, UN scientists vet 'Plan B'
by Staff Writers
Bonn (AFP) June 18, 2011

On the heels of another halting round of talks on climate change, UN scientists this week will review quick-fix options for beating back the threat of global warming that rely on technology rather than political wrangling.

Experts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), meeting for three days from Monday in the Peruvian capital Lima, will ponder "geo-engineering" solutions designed to cool the planet, or at least brake the startling rise in Earth's temperature.

Seeding the ocean with iron, scattering heat-reflecting particles in the stratosphere, building towers to suck carbon dioxide (CO2) out of the atmosphere, and erecting a giant sunshade in space are all on the examining table.

Critics say such schemes -- some of which have been tested experimentally -- are a roll of the dice with Earth's climate system and its complex web of biodiversity.

And even if one problem is solved, they argue, it may be impossible to anticipate knock-on effects and unintended consequences.

There is a political danger as well, climate policy experts caution: the prospect of a quick fix to global warming could weaken an already fragile global consensus on the need to reduce greenhouse gases or subvert complicated methods for measuring emissions cuts.

"It's a convenient way for Northern governments to dodge their commitments to emissions reduction," said Silvia Ribeiro of the ETC Group, a technology watchdog group.

Last week, more than 100 organisations, including ETC and Friends of the Earth, sent an open letter to the IPCC "demanding a clear statement of its commitment to precaution and to the existing international moratorium on geo-engineering."

Only four years ago, in its landmark Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC dismissed geo-engineering in a brief aside as charged with potential risk and unquantified cost.

But now the Nobel-winning panel is taking a closer look, a telling sign, for some, that the effort to tackle global warming through politics is taking too long and bearing too little fruit.

Delegates ended another 12-day talkfest in Bonn on Friday under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), still deeply riven over who should cut their emissions, by how much and when.

Current pledges fall far short of holding temperature rise in check below 2.0 degree Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared with pre-industrial levels, a widely accepted threshold for safety.

IPCC officials defend the new review on several grounds.

To begin with, it is what members of the 194-nation intergovernmental body asked for, said Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, a leading Belgian scientist and vice chair of the IPCC.

"My concern is to fulfill an IPCC mandate to provide the best information available to take informed decisions to protect the climate and the environment," he said by telephone.

"We will look at the advantages and possibilities, but we will also look at the potentially negative aspects."

The experts meeting Monday, he added, review the state of scientific knowledge but do not make policy recommendations.

"In the absence of an objective IPCC assessment, the only information available to policy makers would be from quite a diverse range of sources, some of which might have an interest at stake," he said.

Geo-engineering schemes can be as simple as planting trees to absorb CO2 or painting flat roofs white to reflect sunlight back into space, a technique already in use in many sun-baked urban settings.

They also include scattering sea salt aerosols in low marine clouds to render them more mirror-like, sowing the stratosphere with reflective sulphate particles, or "fertilising" the ocean surface with iron to spur the growth of micro-organisms that gobble up CO2.

At the sci-fi end of the scale is a proposal -- which exists, for now, only on paper -- for a sunshade positioned at a key point between Earth and the Sun that would deflect one or two percent of solar radiation, turning the planet's thermostat down a notch.

In an analysis published in September 2009, the Royal Society, Britain's academy of sciences, judged that planting forests and building towers to capture CO2 could make a useful contribution -- once they are demonstrated to be "safe, effective, sustainable and affordable."

It also noted that blunting the impact of solar radiation would still not lower atmospheric concentrations of CO2, which is also driving ocean acidification.




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UN talks must save Kyoto or 'collapse': AOSIS
Bonn (AFP) June 17, 2011 - UN talks struggling to forge a response to global warming must salvage the embattled Kyoto Protocol or risk collapse, the head of a 43-nation bloc of island nations said Friday.

"Some countries are willing to commit to a second commitment period," said Grenada's Dessima Williams, chair of the the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

"It is not anywhere near the full coverage that will be needed," she told AFP on the sidelines of a negotiating session of the 194-nation UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), ending Friday.

"However, it is either that or the complete collapse of the system."

Kyoto, which covers 37 industrialised countries, is the only international deal with binding targets for curbing greenhouse gases.

A first commitment period expires at the end of 2012, and the fate of the treaty remains in limbo.

Japan, Canada and Russia have all opted out of new commitments, and the European Union has said that its further participation cannot be taken for granted.

Washington helped craft the protocol but never ratified it, saying it was fatally flawed because developing giants such as China -- which has since become the world's top carbon polluter -- faced no emissions constraints.

These major emerging economies and other developing countries today insist that rich countries must renew their carbon cutting vows.

AOSIS nations are likely to be hit first and hardest by climate change, especially rising sea levels and more intense storms, scientists say. Impacts are already being felt, said Williams.

"We are seeing more extreme weather events, loss of water supply, fish stocks are not looking good, coral reefs are in trouble, and climate scientists are predicting a very intense hurricane season," she said.

"The Marshall Islands and other nations are beginning to loose not just coast but large swathes of territory."

Despite, or perhaps because, of these impacts, the AOSIS bloc has shown an increasing willingness to find a middle ground in the complex, multi-track climate talks.

Even if a scaled-down second round of Kyoto commitments -- including the European Union and a few other small nations -- only covers 12 or 13 percent of global CO2 emissions, the Protocol should be preserved, Williams insisted.

"It is better to have that than having nothing at all," she said. "The value of the Kyoto Protocol is that it helps us to collect data, and to observe and to monitor."

At the same time, she added, rich nations must "raise their level of ambition."

Under current trajectories, "We are looking at a 4.0 degree Celsius (9.2 degree Fahrenheit) increase in global average temperatures," she said.

Any increase of more than 2.0 C (3.6 F) above preindustrial levels puts Earth is a danger zone, UN scientists have said.





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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate chief pleads for 'high-level' push on Kyoto
Bonn (AFP) June 17, 2011
New talks on global warming ended here Friday with the UN's climate chief calling on world leaders to help resolve the fate of the Kyoto Protocol ahead of a key meeting six months down the road. "There is a growing realisation that resolving the future of the Kyoto Protocol is an essential task this year and will require high-level political guidance," said Christiana Figueres, executive sec ... read more


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