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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Asia doing "pretty well" despite China slowdown: IMF chief
by Staff Writers
Jakarta (AFP) Sept 2, 2015


China, India drive Australia's best tourism year since Sydney Olympics
Sydney (AFP) Sept 2, 2015 - A boom in cashed-up visitors from China and India has helped Australia record its strongest tourism year since the Sydney Olympics, officials said Wednesday, with more than Aus$33 billion (US$23.1 billion) pumped into the economy.

The government-run Tourism Research Australia's International Visitor Survey showed that seven percent more people made the trip in the year to June 30 to reach a new high of 6.6 million -- the best since the hugely successful Games were held in 2000.

Tourists from China jumped 22 percent to 864,000. They also spent big, contributing Aus$7 billion, a 32 percent spike, to account for around Aus$1 in every Aus$5 spent by international visitors during the year.

Tourists from the United States (544,000) and New Zealand (1.2 million) also rose, while those from Britain and Japan remained steady.

India was one of the fastest growing markets, boosted in part by Australia co-hosting the Cricket World Cup with New Zealand, with 207,000 people making the trip, up 20 percent, and their spending surpassing Aus$1 billion for the first time.

"Tourism can be our fastest growing sector this decade if we continue to leverage our 'clean, green and safe' brand to position ourselves as the number one, long-haul destination in Asia," Trade Minister Andrew Robb said.

"With China now accounting for one in every five dollars spent by international visitors, it is clear that China is vital to the sustained growth of our tourism sector."

New South Wales, home to Sydney, was the most visited state, followed by Victoria and Queensland.

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said Wednesday Asian economies were doing "pretty well" despite the volatility created by China's slowdown and unease on global financial markets.

A fresh round of volatility shook Asian and European stocks on Wednesday, as further evidence of slowing growth in China's economy overshadowed global markets.

Financial markets have gyrated recently on the China concerns, with emerging economies and their currencies taking a beating.

Lagarde, in Jakarta for a two-day visit, said the recent turmoil highlighted the "extraordinary gains" made by Asian economies but warned further volatility was on the horizon.

"Now the situation is changing yet again, and we are all feeling the impact of China's rebalancing and moving to a revised business model," she told a conference.

"What has been demonstrated in the last few weeks is how much Asia is at the core of global economy, and how much disruptions occurring in one market in Asia can actually spill over to the rest of the world."

China wants future growth to be driven more by domestic demand than by investment and exports, as in the past.

Later, Lagarde said the IMF was talking to China about its transition to a more market-determined economy, including the internationalisation of its currency -- a "significant" process which she hoped could be "managed in an orderly fashion".

Slower growth in major economies like China and Japan, lower commodity prices and the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States would continue to weigh on emerging markets across the region, the IMF chief added.

To tackle the bumpy road ahead, she suggested policymakers consider reining in excessive credit growth, adopt tighter fiscal policies, use the exchange rate as a "shock absorber", maintain adequate foreign exchange reserves and bolster regulatory oversight of the financial sector.

Despite external pressures and the slower pace of expansion in Asia, Lagarde said that "this whole region, in the world, is doing pretty well", and would continue to be a key source of global growth.

Lagarde this week added her voice to private-sector economists who have cut their world growth estimates, conceding growth would likely be weaker than the 3.3 percent estimate the IMF published just two months ago.

Australia's economy slows as China stumbles
Sydney (AFP) Sept 2, 2015 - Australia's economy expanded at its slowest quarterly pace in more than two years, data showed Wednesday, with exports dragged down by weakening growth in key trading partner China.

Resources-driven economies such as Australia, Brazil and Canada have been hurt by softening Chinese demand for commodities, which has triggered a dive in prices for metals and oil, sending their currencies tumbling and hitting revenue.

Canada, the world's fifth-largest oil producer, said Tuesday it had fallen into recession for the second time in seven years, while Brazil's GDP contracted for the first two quarters of this year.

Economic growth in Australia -- of which iron ore and coal are its largest exports -- expanded at a slower-than-expected 0.2 percent in April-June, taking the annual rate to 2.0 percent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.

The latest figures -- which followed strong 0.9 percent growth in the first quarter -- were softer than analysts' expectations of quarterly growth of 0.4 percent and year-on-year growth of 2.2 percent.

The Australian dollar, a risk proxy for China, was already reeling from fears about the health of the world's second-largest economy and briefly slipped below 70 US cents before recovering.

Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey sought to allay fears about the economic outlook and said while his country had been hit by its biggest fall in the terms of trade for more than half a century, the economy had avoided a recession for 24 years.

"At a time when other commodity-based economies like Canada and Brazil are in recession, the Australian economy is continuing to grow at a rate that meets and sometimes beats our most recent budget forecast," he told reporters.

"The diversity and flexibility of the modern Australian economy is continuing to get us through the recent massive falls in commodity prices."

- Recession risk? -

The last time the economy expanded at this pace was in the March quarter of 2013, and before that, the weakest reading was a 0.4 percent contraction in the three months to March 2011.

Mining production "fell significantly" by 3.0 percent for the quarter, although growth through the year was 2.1 percent, with statistics bureau adding exports also fell.

Net exports detracted from GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points for the three months.

In positive news, household spending rose 0.5 percent for the period while government expenditure jumped 2.2 percent.

National Australia Bank senior economist David de Garis told AFP there was "some economic progress, but in a still-difficult environment", adding that the 2.0 percent GDP reading was forecast by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Australia has struggled to transition from mining-driven growth as an unprecedented boom in resources investment ends, with non-mining industries failing to fill the gap.

The central bank Tuesday kept interest rates at a record-low 2.0 percent, while the jobless rate has stayed around a decade-high of 6.0 percent in recent few months.

Capital Economics' senior Asia economist Daniel Martin said the lower second-quarter reading could put rate cuts back on the table, adding: "The risks may now be to the downside, with the chances of a recession looking larger than at any time in the last 24 years."

But despite other commodity economies such as Canada slipping into recession, Australia's more than two-decade-long period of growth was likely to remain intact unless there was an unexpected shock, RBC Capital Markets' fixed income strategist Michael Turner told AFP.

"We think you'd need an exogenous shock to get us into some kind of contraction, be that from China or elsewhere. Growth is not great, but it's not terrible in the same breath.

"There are parts of the economy that are going OK," he added, pointing to residential construction, household consumption and net exports.

TD Securities' chief Asia-Pacific strategist Annette Beacher said it was not yet "our turn for the 'r' (recession) word" and the new data would not trigger a change in the RBA's outlook.


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