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At G20, China unlikely to heed calls for rescue

by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Nov 12, 2008
China will go to the G20 meeting in Washington with a pledge to be an active participant, but it is unlikely to offer itself as lender of last resort for countries reeling from the global downturn.

President Hu Jintao's presence at the meeting of the world's major industrialised countries and its main emerging economies reflects China's transformation into a nation with a crucial role in the world economy.

Analysts say it also shows China's growing concern about the fallout of the world crisis, and its increasing willingness to consult with other nations on major global issues.

"China is coordinating with the rest of the world. That's good, that's important," said Dong Tao, a Hong Kong-based analyst with Credit Suisse.

With a financial system that remains relatively closed, and a banking system that benefited from a massive recapitalisation effort early this decade, China's exposure to the global financial storms has been limited.

But due to its reliance on selling exports to western markets, it has not been immune.

China's government has been watching with anxiety as the nation's export growth has slowed, with many factories in its industrialised south closing and its economic expansion falling to the lowest level in five years.

Against this sombre backdrop, China's leaders have said they hope the summit will lead to concrete results in the form of a more regulated global financial system.

"We have a need for financial innovation to better service the economy, but we have an even greater need for more financial regulation to ensure financial stability," Premier Wen Jiabao said recently.

However the world appears to have expectations far higher for China at the meeting than the country is comfortable with.

"International society is having very high expectations for China to rescue the world economy," said Jia Qingguo, an international relations scholar at Peking University.

"I think they just forget China is still a developing country with 1.3 billion people," he said.

In Washington, Hu's delegation is likely to come under pressure because of China's huge forex reserves, coveted and envied by cash-starved economies, including tiny troubled Iceland.

At over 1.9 trillion dollars, the reserves are the largest in the world by far -- nearly eight times bigger than the 250 billion dollar bail-out fund managed by the International Monetary Fund.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown called last month for a boost to the IMF fund, suggesting China and the oil-rich Gulf nations were the likeliest contributors.

But Tao of Credit Suisse said Brown's proposal was "not very realistic."

"I don't think China is in any mood nor appetite to get its two trillion of reserves into this game," the analyst said.

"You have a great risk for the capital you put in as last resort -- you never see it coming back to you. I don't think this is acceptable for China."

China, a top holder of US Treasurys, is also unlikely to make any major purchases of new American government debt, according to Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at People's University in Beijing.

Shi noted that the large Chinese holdings of dollar-denominated securities had fallen steeply in value along with the greenback.

"It will invite massive public criticism if the government continues to buy large sums of US Treasury bonds," Shi said.

Meanwhile China will likely continue to insist that ensuring stability at home for the world's fourth-largest economy is the most important measure it can take in helping to manage the global crisis.

To this end, China has announced a four-trillion-yuan (586-billion-dollar) stimulus package to be spent on infrastructure and other projects aimed at helping it weather the global crisis.

And for all its current woes, China's economy is expected to grow by 8.5 percent next year, against a 0.3 percent contraction among the advanced economies, the IMF said last week.

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Global crisis hits over 1,300 south China firms: report
Beijing (AFP) Nov 11, 2008
More than 1,300 companies shut down, suspended operations or moved out of south China's Pearl River Delta in the first nine months of the year due to the global downturn, state press said Tuesday.







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