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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Bloomberg at UN climate talks to push for US action
By Patrick GALEY and Amelie BOTTOLLIER-DEPOIS
Madrid (AFP) Dec 10, 2019

2020 election crucial for US to catch up on climate action
Washington (AFP) Dec 9, 2019 - A significant expansion of state, city, and business climate action could reduce US greenhouse gas emissions by up to 37 percent by 2030 over 2005 levels even without federal support, according to projections published Monday.

But the election of a president who advances a comprehensive national climate strategy could reduce emissions by 49 percent by 2030, around the levels UN experts deem a necessary stepping stone to meet the Paris accord goals needed to prevent runaway planetary warming.

The figures were compiled by America's Pledge, a group founded in 2017 and financed by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who last month announced he was running to be the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election.

Climate change experts quoted in the report, from the University of Maryland and the Rocky Mountain Institute, estimate the US is presently set to reduce emissions by 25 percent by 2030 if sub-federal climate ambitions remain at their current levels.

The main factors are natural market forces, which are increasingly favoring renewable energies and disfavoring coal, as well as laws in Democratic-led states, notably California and New York.

The best case scenario however would involve the election of a Democratic president and congressional majority that would adopt a set of laws on the energy sector and on vehicles that would put the country on track to meet carbon neutrality by 2050.

Scientists deem that necessary to limit long-term warming at 1.5 or two degrees higher than pre-industrial levels.

"We do have time to catch up with the Paris goal, but we need to move very rapidly," Carl Pope, vice president of America's Pledge told reporters ahead of the report's presentation at the COP25 UN climate conference in Madrid on Monday.

"It does require revolutionary change, but that change is already happening," Pope added. "So we need federal reengagement, we ideally need it in 2021. But we shouldn't stop if we don't get it."

Under the US system of governance, states have the power to legislate against fossil fuel use in local energy production, and set standards for building insulation and heating.

But other important regulations remain under federal purview, including car emissions, aviation, shipping, oil pipelines, hydrocarbon drilling on federal lands, the federal energy sector and regulations for carbon-intensive industries such as cement and steel.

By comparison, the European Union is on track to significantly exceed its target of reducing emissions by 40 percent by 2030 compared to 1990, which is earlier than the reference year chosen by Washington of 2005.

Many European countries have called for the zone to adopt the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.

American presidential hopeful Michael Bloomberg will attend UN climate talks in Madrid Tuesday with the message that the US is "still in" the fight against global warming despite its looming withdrawal from the world's climate plan.

The billionaire, aiming to become the Democratic presidential candidate for next year's vote, will unveil findings by a research group he funds suggesting that a president who prioritises climate reforms could reduce US emissions by 49 percent by 2030.

This would put the largest historic emitter on track to meet its current obligations under the 2015 Paris accord, irrespective of Donald Trump's decision to remove the US from the landmark deal.

Bloomberg will appear alongside Hollywood icon Harrison Ford and United Nations officials at the COP25 talks, currently in their second week.

"Despite Trump backing out of the Paris Agreement, climate progress is happening in the US thanks to bold action from cities, states, & businesses," he tweeted.

"Tomorrow, I'll represent the US at #COP25 to deliver our America's Pledge report showing how far we've come."

Nations are locked in crunch negotiations over how to deliver on pledges in the Paris agreement to drastically reduce emissions to keep global temperature increases to "well below" two degrees Celsius.

Former US President Barack Obama played a key role in pushing through the Paris pact.

But Trump has since signalled his intent to withdraw from the deal, although the United States will still be part of the UN climate change process.

Congressional leader Nancy Pelosi told delegates at the start of the Madrid talks last week that the world could still count on Americans to fight global warming.

"We're here to say to all of you, on behalf of the House of Representatives and the Congress of the United States, we're still in it, we're still in it," Pelosi said.

- 'Morale boost' -

Sebastien Treyer, director of environmental watchdog IDDRI, told AFP Bloomberg's appearance would "boost morale" at the talks.

"The 'we are still in' message is very important and to have a personality such as his is very important, particularly since he has a lot of influence in the New York finance community."

Elan Strait, director of US climate Campaigns WWF, told AFP: "The world is desperate to hear real American leadership on climate change."

Bloomberg is poised to run as a centrist and analysts suspect that he could eat into support enjoyed by fellow moderate Joe Biden.

Bloomberg is prioritising the climate in his election bid, and the study from his think tank draws a clear line in the sand between himself and Trump on the fate of the planet.

Climate change experts quoted in the report, from the University of Maryland and the Rocky Mountain Institute, estimate the United States is presently set to reduce emissions by 25 percent by 2030 if sub-federal climate ambitions remain at their current levels.

It said the best case scenario would however be the election of a Democrat to the White House as well as a congressional majority to bring the energy and auto sectors in line to set the US on track to carbon neutrality by 2050.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Early climate change models were pretty accurate, study finds
Washington (UPI) Dec 5, 2019
Early climate models get a bad wrap for being imprecise, but new research suggests they were surprisingly accurate. Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NASA reviewed 17 climate models described in scientific papers over the last several decades. The earliest were developed in the 1970s, while the most recent were created in late 2000s. Of the 17 models, analysis showed 14 were very accurate in predicting the average global temp ... read more

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