. Earth Science News .
CLIMATE SCIENCE
Brace for extra-warm weather through 2022: study
By Marlowe HOOD
Paris (AFP) Aug 14, 2018

Manmade global warming and a natural surge in Earth's surface temperature will join forces to make the next five years exceptionally hot, according to a study published Tuesday.

The double whammy of climate change and so-called natural variability more than doubles the likelihood of "extreme warm events" in ocean surface waters, creating a dangerous breeding ground for hurricanes and typhoons, they reported in Nature Communications.

"This warm phase is reinforcing long-term climate change," lead author Florian Sevellec, a climate scientist at the University of Brest in France, told AFP.

"This particular phase is expected to continue for at least five years."

Earth's average surface temperature has always fluctuated.

Over the last million years, it vacillated roughly every 100,000 years between ice ages and balmy periods warmer than today.

Over the last 11,000 years, those variations have become extremely modest, allowing our species to flourish.

Manmade climate change -- caused by billions of tonnes of greenhouse gases injected into the atmosphere, mainly over the last century -- has come on top of those small shifts, and today threatens to overwhelm them.

Teasing apart the influence of carbon pollution and natural variation has long bedevilled scientists trying hey to quantify the impact of climate change on cyclones, droughts, floods and other forms of extreme weather.

- Natural warming v. manmade change -

Sevellec and his colleagues tackled the problem in a different way.

First, they focused on the natural fluctuations that -- for most climate scientists -- are "noise" obscuring the climate change fingerprint.

Second, they used a streamlined statistical approach rather than the comprehensive climate models that generate most long-term forecasts.

"We developed a system for predicting interannual" -- or short-term -- "natural variations in climate," Sevellec said.

"For the period 2018-2022, we found an anomaly equivalent to the impact of anthropogenic warming."

Natural warming, in other words, will have about the same impact as manmade climate change over the next five years.

The likelihood of a marine heatwave or other ocean "warming events" is predicted to increase by 150 percent.

The new method -- dubbed PROCAST, for PRObabilistic foreCAST -- was tested against past temperature records and proved at least as accurate as standard models.

It can be run in seconds on a laptop, rather than requiring weeks of computing time on a super-computer.

"This opens of the possibility of doing climate forecasts to more researchers, especially in countries that don't have easy access to super-computers," Sevellec said.

The researchers intend to adapt their system to make regional predictions, and -- in addition to temperature -- to estimate rainfall and drought trends.

The Paris climate treaty calls for capping global warming at "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and 1.5 C if deemed feasible.

On current trends, however, Earth is on track to heat up by twice that much before the end of the century.


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


Thanks for being here;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5 Billed Monthly


paypal only


CLIMATE SCIENCE
Earth at risk of heading towards 'hothouse Earth' state
Stockholm, Sweden (SPX) Aug 09, 2018
Keeping global warming to within 1.5-2C may be more difficult than previously assessed, according to researchers. An international team of scientists has published a study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) showing that even if the carbon emission reductions called for in the Paris Agreement are met, there is a risk of Earth entering what the scientists call "Hothouse Earth" conditions. A "Hothouse Earth" climate will in the long-term stabilize at a global average of 4 ... read more

Comment using your Disqus, Facebook, Google or Twitter login.



Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Nine dead including children as migrant boat sinks off Turkey: report

For wetter or worse: Philippine bride defies storm

Lombok quake sends shudders through tourist industry

Japan's crippled Fukushima plant stops selling souvenirs

CLIMATE SCIENCE
UNH researchers find seed coats could lead to strong, tough, yet flexible materials

Rediscovering the sources of Egyptian metals

A new classification of symmetry groups in crystal space proposed by Russian scientists

France to set penalties on non-recycled plastic

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Pacific Ocean's effect on Arctic warming

Expedition probes ocean's smallest organisms for climate answers

Half a degree less warming can avoid precipitation extremes

Does rain follow the plow

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Scientists trace atmospheric rise in CO2 during deglaciation to deep Pacific Ocean

Ice sheets of the last ice age seeded the ocean with silica

The Arctic Carbon Cycle is Speeding Up

Concern for climate as Sweden's highest peak melts away

CLIMATE SCIENCE
US jury orders Monsanto to pay $290mn to cancer patient over weed killer

Jurors mull 'day of reckoning' in Roundup cancer trial

Cultivated areas halve in Iraq as drought tightens grip

Glyphosate under fire from San Francisco to Sri Lanka

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Typhoon Shanshan clips Japan coast, sparing Tokyo

Indonesia quake toll jumps to 164, survivors wait for aid

Rain-on-snow flood risk to increase in many mountain regions of the western US, Canada

Flash floods kill 37 in India's tourist hotspot Kerala

CLIMATE SCIENCE
South Sudan president pardons rival, rebels: state radio

Three Congo soldiers walk free after 'mass murder' convictions

Canadian UN peacekeepers return to Africa after 24 years

Suspicion of electoral fraud revives ethnic tension in Mali

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Chimpanzee foods are mechanically more demanding than previously thought

New light shed on the people who built Stonehenge

Modern Flores Island pygmies show no genetic link to extinct 'hobbits'

Homo sapiens developed a new ecological niche that separated it from other hominins









The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2024 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. All articles labeled "by Staff Writers" include reports supplied to Space Media Network by industry news wires, PR agencies, corporate press officers and the like. Such articles are individually curated and edited by Space Media Network staff on the basis of the report's information value to our industry and professional readership. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Statement Our advertisers use various cookies and the like to deliver the best ad banner available at one time. All network advertising suppliers have GDPR policies (Legitimate Interest) that conform with EU regulations for data collection. By using our websites you consent to cookie based advertising. If you do not agree with this then you must stop using the websites from May 25, 2018. Privacy Statement. Additional information can be found here at About Us.