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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Brexit is risk to global growth, says G20
By Bill SAVADOVE
Chengdu, China (AFP) July 24, 2016


UK warns of Brexit 'shadow' on world economy
London (AFP) July 24, 2016 - Britain's finance minister warned Brexit would cast a "shadow" over the world economy but said he was eyeing a free trade deal with China in interviews with the BBC and Sky News on Sunday.

Speaking on the sidelines of the G20 meeting of leading world economies in Chengdu, China, Philip Hammond told Sky that the vote to leave the EU was "not the only shadow the world economy faces".

"There is going to be uncertainty about the outcome hanging over the world economic outlook for perhaps the next couple of years," Hammond said.

"At the same time there are very exciting opportunities opening up with China, with Australia, with India, and with many other countries" once Britain has withdrawn from the EU, he said.

Asked by the BBC if he could envisage a free trade deal with China, he said: "Definitely I could see such a thing."

"We already have a strategic partnership with China... Once we are out of the European Union then I have no doubt on both sides we will want to cement that relationship into a firmer structure in a bilateral way," he said.

G20 finance ministers on Sunday said the Brexit vote heightened risks for the world economy and vowed to use "all policy tools" to boost growth.

China President Xi Jinping before the referendum had said that he hoped Britain would remain in the 28-nation bloc to promote the "deepening development of China-EU ties."

Senior figures from some of Britain's biggest financial services companies, including HSBC, Virgin Money, the London Stock Exchange and Standard Life were travelling with Hammond.

Prime Minister Theresa May also discussed a trade deal with Australia in a phone call with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull earlier this month.

Foreign Office junior minister Alok Sharma was also travelling to India on Monday on his first visit since his appointment.

"Britain is open for business and thriving on the world stage. We want the strongest possible relationship with India," Sharma said.

Britain's vote to leave the European Union heightens risks for the world economy, finance chiefs from the G20 group of leading countries said Sunday, vowing to use "all policy tools" to boost growth.

The outcome of June's referendum "adds to the uncertainty in the global economy", they said in a communique after a meeting of central bankers and ministers in the Chinese city of Chengdu.

But they insisted that G20 countries were "well positioned to proactively address the potential economic and financial consequences" of the vote, adding: "In the future, we hope to see the UK as a close partner of the EU."

"In light of recent developments, we reiterate our determination to use all policy tools -- monetary, fiscal and structural -- individually and collectively to achieve our goal of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth," said the communique, repeating a pledge from an earlier meeting in Shanghai in February.

But it called for "inclusive growth" to bring in those left out of economic prosperity.

Fiscally rigorous Germany in particular is reluctant to endorse the use of government spending to boost growth, seeing it as ineffective.

"It would be a mistake to think about the choice of tools as being either/or when it comes to structural reforms or using fiscal space," said US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew. "The two go hand-in-glove."

Embattled IMF managing director Christine Lagarde -- who faces prosecution in France on accusations of neglecting her duties as a government minister -- abruptly cancelled a news conference after the meeting, citing scheduling conflicts.

"Lacklustre growth of the post-crisis era continues," she said in a statement. "Structural reforms are particularly critical."

Concerns about slowing growth in China, the world's second largest economy, have receded into the background at the G20 in the face of other threats.

Apart from the British referendum vote the G20 cited several other factors complicating the global economic environment, among them "geopolitical conflicts, terrorism and refugee flows".

But participants said Brexit was at the forefront of concerns at the meeting in Chengdu, the last before the G20 summit in September.

Philip Hammond, Britain's finance minister, told reporters the subject had come up "a great deal".

"The reality is there will be a measure of uncertainty continuing right up to the conclusion of our negotiations with the EU," he said.

Before the meeting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecasts for global growth this year and next by 0.1 percentage points, to 3.1 percent and 3.4 percent respectively.

"'Brexit' marks the materialisation of an important downside risk to global growth," IMF staff said in a report, adding that as it was "still very much unfolding, more negative outcomes are a distinct possibility".

Officials in Chengdu said protracted or acrimonious talks between the EU and Britain over the departure could heighten the dangers.

- 'Solidarity and resolve' -

Lew stressed to his European and British counterparts "the need for negotiations to take place in a smooth, pragmatic and transparent manner".

"A highly integrated relationship between the UK and the EU is in the best interests of Europe, the United States and the global economy," he told journalists after the meeting.

Other challenges threaten: a slowdown in the Chinese economy, as well as terrorist attacks and the failed coup in Turkey.

Earlier this month 84 people were killed in the French city of Nice when a Tunisian truck driver -- suspected to be inspired by the Islamic State jihadist group -- ploughed his vehicle through crowds.

On Friday a German-Iranian gunman described as "obsessed" with mass killers shot dead nine people in the German city of Munich before killing himself.

"We condemn, in the strongest possible terms, the recent terrorist attacks," the communique said. "We reaffirm our solidarity and resolve in the fight against terrorism in all its forms and wherever it occurs."

French Finance Minister Michel Sapin told AFP that terrorism had become an economic risk: "Today the frequency of attacks creates a new situation of uncertainty, which is at least as damaging as regional destabilisations or a regional conflict."

But the communique did not mention the failed attempt to depose Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or his subsequent widespread crackdown on opponents.

Officials said the Turkish delegation had demanded an explicit statement of support for Erdogan's government, but some other representatives had demurred.

Britain might deploy fiscal stimulus in autumn: Hammond
Chengdu, China (AFP) July 24, 2016 - Britain could unleash a government stimulus package this autumn to counter the negative effects of its vote to leave the European Union, its finance minister said Sunday.

"We have the option of a fiscal response, and we will do that on our normal timetable around the autumn statement," Philip Hammond told reporters on the sidelines of a G20 finance ministers meeting in the Chinese city of Chengdu.

His remarks came after closely-watched survey data Friday showed that Britain's economy was battered by the Brexit vote last month and faced a "dramatic deterioration" in activity.

Hammond said the private sector business activity figures "underscore the hit to confidence from the uncertainty that the referendum decision has created".

"The reality is that there will be a measure of uncertainty right up to the conclusion of our negotiations with the European Union," he added.

There is a two-year window for negotiations from when Britain triggers the Article 50 clause, something which Britain's new Prime Minister Theresa May has signalled she might not do until next year.

But Hammond added: "The uncertainty will only end when the deal is done."

He said that Brexit had been a "major topic of discussion" at the G20 meeting, where finance chiefs from some of the world's most powerful nations and major emerging countries said that Brexit was a risk to global economic growth.

Hammond would not give details on the possible stimulus. Governments typically increase spending during recessions to balance plummeting private sector activity.

Economic data available in the autumn would allow London to "to reach a proper conclusion as to whether a fiscal stimulus is required", he said.

Britain's ruling Conservative party abandoned its policy of reaching a budget surplus by 2020 following the shock Brexit vote, potentially freeing up funds for spending.

Hammond said a "new framework" for Britain's budget would be released in the autumn to "give clarity to investors", without giving details.

China leads fall in foreign lending to emerging markets: BIS
Paris (AFP) July 22, 2016 - Cross-border lending, key to help fuel economic growth, fell to emerging markets at the start of the year, led by China, the Bank for International Settlements said Friday.

The $76 billion decline -- a 9-percent fall at an annual rate -- in the first quarter took the outstanding drop to $3.2 trillion to emerging market countries, the BIS said.

Emerging economies, such as Brazil and Russia, had until recently been responsible for most growth in the global economy.

But a plunge in oil and other commodity prices that has hobbled many emerging nations, as well as fears of a hard landing in China, have led to an outflow of foreign funds.

The BIS, which is owned by and serves central banks, said the drop in foreign lending to China drove the aggregate quarterly change in lending to emerging market economies as a whole and to emerging Asia in particular.

"Since hitting its all-time high at end September 2014, cross-border bank credit to China has contracted by a cumulative $367 billion," or by a third of the total, said the BIS.

China expanded by a better-than-expected 6.7 percent in the second quarter, but the key driver of the global economy is still expected to slow to the lowest in a quarter century as Beijing tries to rebalance the nation's economy.

China is seeking to restructure its economy to make the spending power of its nearly 1.4 billion people a key driver for growth, instead of massive government investment and cheap exports.

But the transition has caused growth to sputter.

The BIS also noted an increase in lending to governments.


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