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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China September PMI misses estimate: HSBC
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Sept 30, 2014


China house prices fall faster in September: survey
Beijing (AFP) Sept 30, 2014 - China's home prices fell at a faster rate in September than the previous month, a survey showed Monday, as the central bank announced looser credit policies to try to avoid a sharp decline.

The average price of a new home in 100 major cities was 10,627 yuan ($1,731) per square metre last month, down 0.92 percent from August, the China Index Academy (CIA) said in a statement.

It was the fifth month-on-month decline in a row, as analysts warn that China's flagging property sector is contributing to slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy.

All of China's 10 biggest cities continued to post month-on-month decreases, with the average price in Beijing dropping 1.34 percent to 32,281 yuan per square metre.

"The market trend is clearly downward" said CIA, the research unit of real estate website operator Soufun, adding: "Potential buyers expect the market to decline, and there is not enough credit to support demand."

In recent years China has sought to rein in runaway property prices -- a source of discontent among ordinary citizens -- by introducing market control measures including buying limits on second and third homes.

But local governments make much of their income from land sales to developers and have tried to find ways to loosen the restrictions as property prices have fallen in recent months.

The survey results came as China's central bank eased credit policies for the sector, announcing Tuesday that people who had paid off previous mortgage loans would be treated as first-time buyers and enjoy preferential policies.

For first-time purchases, lenders are now allowed to charge a mortgage rate as low as 70 percent of the benchmark lending rate, the People's Bank of China said in a statement.

"These measures suggest that the government does not want to have a sharp correction in the property sector," analysts at Nomura said in a note.

"But we doubt that they will end the correction, given the severity of the oversupply problem," they added.

In June the city of Hohhot in the northern region of Inner Mongolia became the first to drop restrictions on the purchase of second homes, and most other municipalities that had imposed the policy have followed suit.

The central government in July published a draft of long-awaited property registration rules, a move that could reduce scope for speculation and pave the way for nationwide real estate taxes.

Year-on-year, prices in the surveyed cities rose 1.12 percent in September, two percentage points lower than the annual rise in August and the ninth month of shrinking yearly increases, said CIA.

China's manufacturing activity came in below initial expectations in September, HSBC said Tuesday, adding to pressure on Beijing to address slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy.

The British bank's final purchasing managers index (PMI), which tracks activity in China's factories and workshops, came in at 50.2.

But while the closely watched figure, compiled by information services provider Markit and released by HSBC, is unchanged from August and is above the 50-point level that separates growth and contraction, it is below a preliminary reading of 50.5.

August's figure was down from an 18-month high of 51.7 in July.

Beijing's official PMI for August came in at 51.1, down from 51.7 in July. It will release its September figure on Wednesday.

"Production increased at the slowest pace in the current four-month sequence of expansion, while job-shedding across the sector extended into an 11th successive month," HSBC said.

Last week's initial result had sparked some optimism that China's economy may be showing signs of picking up following a string of weak data recently.

Qu Hongbin, HSBC's chief economist for China, said the latest reading indicates growth in the sector still lacks vigour.

"Overall, the data in September suggest that manufacturing activity continues to expand at a slow pace," Qu said in a release acompanying the data.

"We think risks to growth are still on the downside and warrant more accommodative monetary as well as fiscal policies."

China's economy grew a stronger-than-expected 7.5 percent in the second quarter, up from 7.4 percent in the previous three months, which was the worst since a similar 7.4 percent expansion in July-September 2012.

China is scheduled to announce third-quarter gross domestic product figures on October 21.

- Worries over property sector -

Authorities have since April introduced a string of measures to try to boost growth, including targeted infrastructure spending, small business tax breaks and incentives to spur lending in rural areas and to small companies.

But with indicators in August pointing to slowing industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment, economists have intensified calls for further measures.

A slowdown in China's huge property sector is also weighing on overall growth.

Falls in new home prices accelerated in September, dropping for the fifth straight month, a private survey showed Tuesday.

The average price of a new home in 100 major cities was 10,627 yuan ($1,731) per square metre in September, down 0.92 percent from August, the China Index Academy said in a statement. August prices had fallen 0.59 percent.

Separately, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, eased credit policies for the sector, announcing that people who had paid off previous mortgage loans would be treated as first-time buyers and enjoy preferential policies, a move seen as a bid to boost the market.

"These measures suggest that the government does not want to have a sharp correction in the property sector," economists at Nomura said in a note.

Downward revisions to the HSBC PMI "were in line with our view that growth momentum has continued to lose steam in September," they said in a separate report.

"We believe the main drag was the property market correction, which we expect to last into 2015."

The government has in recent years introduced measures to temper soaring prices and appease ordinary citizens hoping to own homes.

However, with those measures kicking in and prices beginning to decline local governments -- which rely on land sales for much of their income -- are looking for a loosening of those restrictions.

China's economic growth target for this year calls for an expansion of about 7.5 percent, the same objective set last year.

Premier Li Keqiang has stressed repeatedly that authorities are not overly focused on achieving that figure -- suggesting actual growth could end up lower -- but rather are taking a comprehensive view of the economy's health.

China is attempting to achieve a tricky transformation of its growth model to make consumer spending the main growth driver rather than state-led investment as in the past.

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