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China expected to grow 9.5 percent in 2010

China's manufacturing activity expands in December
Beijing (AFP) Jan 1, 2010 - China's manufacturing activity expanded for the 10th straight month in December as the recovery in the world's third-largest economy continued to gather pace, official data showed Friday. The China Manufacturing PMI, or Purchasing Managers' Index, rose to 56.6 percent in December from 55.2 in November, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement on its website. A reading above 50 means the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates an overall decline. "The rising index suggests the Chinese economy has further consolidated its recovery," researcher Zhang Liqun said in the statement. But a pullback in new export orders in December suggested China's key trading partners were still suffering from the impact of the financial crisis, Zhang said.

New export orders slipped one point to 52.6 percent in December from the previous month, the data showed. "It is too early to be optimistic about the recovery in the global market," Zhang said. China's export-driven economy is expected to easily exceed the government's oft-stated target of eight percent growth in 2009, mainly as a result of massive stimulus spending to combat the crisis. The nation's economy expanded by 8.9 percent in the third quarter, up from 7.9 percent in the second quarter and 6.1 percent in the first three months. In 2008, manufacturing accounted for more than 40 percent of economic output in China, which has been hit hard by evaporating demand for its products in key export markets such as the United States and Europe. HSBC is due to release its China Manufacturing PMI on Monday.
by Staff Writers
 Beijing (AFP) Jan 1, 2010
 China is expected to grow by about 9.5 percent in 2010, state media quoted a government think tank as saying Friday, exceeding forecasts made by outside experts for the new year.

The world's third-largest economy will be boosted by double-digit growth in real estate investment and mild inflation, the State Council's Development Research Centre said in a report published in the China Economic Times.

"In 2010, the external environment will remain rather grim but it will not deteriorate further," Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomist at the centre, said in the report.

Zhang added that exports -- a key driver of economic growth -- would start to grow again in the coming year.

The think tank's 2010 economic growth forecast is well above Beijing's oft-stated target of eight percent -- seen as crucial for job creation and ensuring social stability -- and is higher than estimates for 2009.

For 2010, the Asian Development Bank has put its economic growth forecast for China at 8.9 percent, while the International Monetary Fund predicted growth of nine percent.

China's economy grew by 8.9 percent in the third quarter of 2009 -- the fastest pace in a year -- after expanding by 7.9 percent in the second quarter and 6.1 percent in the first, the slowest pace in more than a decade.

Zhang said real estate investment was expected to grow by 30 to 40 percent in 2010 and become the "main source driving investment growth".

China last month vowed to tighten supervision of the real estate market to curb "overly fast" price rises that have raised fears of a property market bubble.

The country's consumer price index, a key measure of inflation, is estimated to remain below three percent, Zhang said.


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