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China exports down 21.4 percent y-o-y in June

by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) July 10, 2009
Chinese exports dropped 21.4 percent year on year in June, customs figures showed Friday, narrowing from May's fall with analysts saying it was too early to predict a recovery for the ailing sector.

The latest plunge was the eighth straight monthly decline, but a less steep tumble than the 26.4 percent year on year fall the previous month.

The latest drop in exports, to 95.4 billion dollars, underlines how the country's crucial manufacturing sector has been hit by a fall in demand from the United States and Europe during the global economic crisis.

Imports tumbled 13.2 percent year-on-year in June to 87.2 billions dollars, the customs data showed.

For the first six months of the year, the trade surplus was 96.9 billion dollars, down 1.3 percent compared to the same period in 2008.

For June alone the trade-surplus was 8.2 billion dollars, the official data showed.

"I don't think we are seeing any signs of significant recovery in the export sector this year," said Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, speaking in Beijing.

Green said it was too early to say whether the reduction in China's trade surplus would be sustained.

"A big question is whether this is a temporary or structural change in China's trade surplus," he added

"It looks like it is getting smaller, but that is because China is now growing faster than the rest of the world.

"As soon as the world economy bounces back perhaps next year, that is going to put more pressure for (China's) trade surplus to rise again."

China's huge trade surplus has long been a source of friction with Europe and the United States, and it surged to record levels last year on the back of a drop in imports as the nation's economy cooled.

But since China's unprecedented 585-billion-dollar fiscal package was revealed late last year, the country's economy has shown some signs of stabilising.

The stimulus was aimed at lifting the economy mainly through investment in large infrastructure projects.

China's economy is heavily dependent on exports, and the slowdown led to the closure of thousands of factories in the country's southern and eastern manufacturing heartlands in the last year.

Wang Qian, a Hong Kong-based analyst with JP Morgan, said the latest figures showed imports had been boosted by the stimulus.

"The stimulus package helped increase China's imports, which meant expanded exports by other countries," she told AFP.

"So (a recovery in China's exports) still depends on domestic demand in developed countries such as Europe, the United States and Japan increasing."

She said there were signs that consumer spending was stabilising and business retrenchment was less severe.

"China's export sector is gradually rebounding from the bottom even though it is still falling year on year," she added.

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