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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China faces 'unprecedented' economic policy challenge: IMF
By Jeremy TORDJMAN
Lima (AFP) Oct 7, 2015


Chinese official: 'Don't worry about our economy'
Lima (AFP) Oct 7, 2015 - A senior Chinese central bank official sought Wednesday to downplay concerns that China's economic slowdown will further drag down the global economy.

"I would say don't worry," said Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, after the International Monetary Fund warned of risks in China's economic challenges.

"China will still have pretty much middle-to-high growth in the near future," said Yi, speaking in Lima where the IMF-World Bank annual meetings were beginning.

"A lot of people are considering a slowdown of the Chinese economy," he said, referring to how the downturn has helped send global commodity prices plummeting, hurting the economies of exporters.

But he insisted that Chinese imports of raw materials for its industrial economy will grow steadily in the future.

Yi meanwhile welcomed the agreement by 12 Pacific Rim countries led by the United States and Japan -- but excluding China -- to form a giant new free-trade zone, the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Beijing has sought to counter the TPP, agreed Monday after gruelling negotiations in Atlanta, with its own regional trade organization, and has not officially commented on the deal yet.

But Yi said Beijing "has an open mind to the TPP" and is ready to cooperate with the group.

The TPP treaty still awaits the signature and ratification of the governments of the 12 countries, which is likely to take well into 2016.

China confronts a monumental and risk-fraught task as it moves toward a more market- and consumption-based economic model, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

As the most important emerging-market economy, China's rebalancing and deleveraging will "require great care," the Fund said in its new review of global financial risks.

"The Chinese authorities face an unprecedented policy challenge in carrying out their objectives to make the transition to a new growth model and a more market-based financial system," the IMF said.

"Achieving this outcome will require careful pacing of reforms and policy consistency."

The focus on China came in the IMF's new Global Financial Stability Report which stresses the increased dangers across the emerging markets from slow growth and global market turbulence, to very high levels of corporate borrowing.

The report was released on the eve of the IMF-World Bank annual meetings, being held in Lima, at which global policy makers review the state of the global economy and hash over important issues.

If not handled well from a policy viewpoint, the IMF warned, the cost to the world economy of the emerging market downturn could be a huge three percent of global output, said IMF Financial Counsellor Jose Vinals.

"The recommendation is for an urgent upgrade in policies, so as to avoid downside risks," he said.

In the worst scenario, corporate default rates could rise, particularly in China, "raising financial system strains, with implications for growth," the report said.

A particular risk is that emerging markets' state-owned enterprises like those in the energy sector, which have raised huge amounts of funding by issuing bonds, could find themselves falling back on governments to service their debt.

That could raise the risk of governments seeing their credit grades lowered to non-investment grade or junk status, as happened to Brazil one month ago, the IMF warned.

- Legacies of central planning -

The slowdown in China, the world's number-two economy, is both a cause and a part of the malaise hitting emerging markets.

The IMF said China will have challenges dealing with the legacies of its old centrally-planned system as it moves to a more market-driven economic structure.

For one, the IMF said, Chinese banks have only just begun to deal with growing problems on their loan books due to the difficulties many Chinese companies are having.

On Tuesday the IMF cut its global growth forecast for this year to 3.1 percent and to 3.6 percent in 2016, both numbers 0.2 percentage point lower than forecasts just three months ago.

The Fund cited particularly the increasing global challenge from China's growth pains.

"While the growth slowdown in China is so far in line with forecasts, its cross-border repercussions appear greater than previously envisaged," it said.

The Fund pointed to a core repercussion of China's downturn -- its lower purchases of key global commodities that many other countries depend on for earnings.

Prices of commodities from oil to metals to grains have slumped over the past two years, taking a strong hit on emerging economies and government budgets around the globe.

"Commodity prices are highly volatile and unpredictable, posing significant challenges to policymakers in resource-rich economies," the IMF said.

The Fund said that natural resources should be a blessing for a country, but that many have struggled to leverage such resources to improve living standards and deepen economic strength.

"Especially in the case of exhaustible mineral and hydrocarbon wealth, many countries have apparently suffered from what is often termed a 'resource curse,'" when a country with abundant natural wealth lags in development for a range of complex reasons.


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IMF gloomy on world economy as China slows
Lima (AFP) Oct 6, 2015
The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecasts for the world economy Tuesday, warning of increasing risks from the slowdown in China, which is dragging other emerging markets down with it. The global economy will expand just 3.1 percent this year and 3.6 percent next year, the IMF predicted, revising downward its previous forecasts by 0.2 percentage points in both cases. Even t ... read more


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