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China leaders draft 2009 macroeconomic policy

China posts another record trade surplus in November
China said Wednesday its trade surplus hit a monthly all-time high of 40.1 billion dollars in November on the back of a drop in imports. The customs authority said the surplus surged despite a 2.2 percent decline in the value of Chinese exports to 115.0 billion dollars. Xinhua news agency said it was the first time since June 2001 that exports saw a year-on-year drop. That decline was more than offset, however, by a 17.9 percent fall in imports.

The data marked the latest evidence that China's trade-reliant economy was being hit hard by the global financial crisis, which has shrunk demand for the country's manufacturers in export markets. The trade surplus for the first 11 months of the year was 256 billion dollars, the customs authority said on its website. The World Bank has predicted that economic growth in China next year will slow to a 19-year low of 7.5 percent.

China's producer price inflation slows
Growth in China's producer price index (PPI) slowed dramatically to just two percent in November from a year earlier, state-run Xinhua news agency said, in yet a sign of a weakening economy. Economists said it was a signal that the eagerly anticipated consumer price index (CPI), to be published Thursday, could be decelerating abruptly. "PPI is often a leading indicator of CPI," said Robert Subbaraman, a Hong Kong-based analyst with Nomura International Ltd. "It's suggesting that CPI inflation is going to fall very sharply."

The November PPI figure from the National Bureau of Statistics compared with 6.6 percent in October and a 12-year high of 10.1 percent in August. "It is closely linked to international commodity prices," said Zhuo Xiaolei, a Beijing-based analyst with Galaxy Securities. "Commodity prices, led by oil prices, have dropped since July by 60 to 70 percent," she said. China's export-dependent economy has been hit hard by the global financial crisis.

The World Bank has predicted that economic growth in China next year will slow to a 19-year low of 7.5 percent. Growth in China's consumer price index hit a 17-month low of 4.0 percent in October, down from 4.6 percent in September and a 12-year high of 8.7 percent in February. Inflation had been a major concern at the start of the year. The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release the November consumer price index Thursday.

by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Dec 10, 2008
China's top leaders ended the most important economic policy gathering of the year Wednesday, focusing on how to stimulate demand and create jobs in 2009 to ward off the global economic crisis.

The annual Central Economic Work Conference, chaired by President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, wrapped up after three days with a macroeconomic policy blueprint for next year, the government said.

"The development of our nation's economy faces many challenges in 2009, but also many opportunities," said a communique issued by the conference and carried on state television.

"To overcome the serious influence of the international financial crisis and carry out next year's economic tasks in a good way is of vital importance to safeguarding the stability of the reform and opening programme and fulfilling ... our plan to build a well-off society."

The work conference called for expanding domestic demand, maintaining "fastpaced" economic growth by weaning the nation away from its dependency on exports, the communique said.

The central bank was specifically tasked with creating a "suitably relaxed monetary policy" capable of advancing economic growth, the People's Bank of China said in a statement posted on its website on the conference.

"We will use all monetary tools to flexibly adjust the supply and demand for capital and adopt stronger measures to support the development of small and medium enterprises," the bank said.

The 2009 macroeconomic policy was described in broad-brush strokes with detailed plans expected to be put before and approved by China's annual session of parliament in March.

"The main tasks facing China's economy is to stimulate investment and consumer spending, so we should be seeing some fiscal measures aimed at lowering taxes," the China News Service quoted Zhao Xijun, a finance expert at the People's University, as saying.

"Monetary policy is likely to be relaxed and we will see further cuts in lending and deposit rates and we shouldn't rule out an increase in bank loans."

During the conference, leaders had been expected to discuss a proposal by the finance ministry to let the 2009 fiscal deficit swell to 280 billion yuan (40.7 billion dollars), up 56 percent from this year, to help maintain growth, media reports said.

In the past few months Beijing has already introduced a series of monetary and fiscal policies aimed at blunting the impact of the global meltdown, including a four-billion-yuan spending package and steep interest rate cuts.

"The fundamental problem facing China's leaders is income distribution which is resulting in a surplus in industrial goods and property... as the global economy slows down," Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai, told AFP.

"What China needs are strong capital measures that can make industrial goods and property affordable to people."

China's economic growth slowed to 9.0 percent in the third quarter of this year as global financial woes started taking a toll, prompting the government to announce its stimulus package.

As a result of the slowdown, growth in the world's fourth-largest economy weakened to 9.9 percent over the first three quarters of the year.

Ahead of the three-day conference, Chinese economists predicted the government would target an eight percent economic growth rate for 2009, a pace that would be the minimum required to keep the unemployment situation under control.

"The meeting will detail measures for achieving at least eight percent growth in 2009," said Song Hong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a top government think tank.

November foreign investment in China down 36.5 pct
Foreign direct investment in China fell by more than a third in November from a year earlier, the government said Wednesday, as the economic crisis dealt another blow to the country's economy.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in November totalled 5.3 billion dollars, 36.5 percent lower than a year earlier, the commerce ministry said in a statement.

Month-to-month FDI figures can be volatile because one major deal can have a dramatic effect, but analysts said November's figures were likely the start of a longer term trend.

"The direction of China's economy is far from optimistic, discouraging foreign investors to enter," said Sherman Chan, a Moody's Economy.com analyst.

China's monthly FDI was likely to continue to fall until at least mid-2009 as the global economy continues to deteriorate, Chan wrote in a note.

However, she said China's FDI would be one of the first indicators to rebound once the global recovery begins.

The FDI for the first eleven months of the year rose 26.3 percent compared with the same period last year, the ministry said.

Foreign companies invested 86.4 billion dollars in the country in the period from January to November, it said.

The growth rate for the period was sharply slower than the 35.1 percent rise in the first ten months of the year.

FDI is one of the factors driving the rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves, which topped 1.9 trillion dollars at the end of September.

The November decline covers a period where business deals around the world ground to a standstill because lending dried up.

"It's a reflection of the global liquidity squeeze," said Ren Xianfang, a Beijing-based analyst with Global Insights.

The worsening profits outlook for Chinese companies also slowed the flow of outside investment, Industrial Bank economist Lu Zhengwei said.

"Since the beginning of this year, many export oriented factories in China had either gone bankrupt or were forced to close down," Lu said.

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Climate, finance crisis top agenda at Tusk-Merkel talks
Warsaw (AFP) Dec 9, 2008
Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were to hold bilateral talks Tuesday in Warsaw focused on the EU's planned climate package and the financial crisis ahead of a key EU summit.







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