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TRADE WARS
China makes Arab trade push on ancient Silk Road
by Staff Writers
Yinchuan, China (AFP) Sept 23, 2011

As European and US economies falter, China is making a trade push with the Arab world, where businessmen say recent political changes will further open up the region to investment.

A major Sino-Arab trade forum is currently under way in the northern region of Ningxia, where politicians from the Maghreb and Middle East and members of the Gulf's ruling families have come to mix with hundreds of entrepreneurs.

Participants in the forum say recent regime changes in some Arab states have created a favourable environment for business, and many countries in the region are looking to Beijing to help them bridge their development gap.

China's trade exchanges with Arab countries, while not as extensive as with some other nations, are growing by 30 percent annually, Jia Qinglin, one of the nation's top nine leaders, said at the opening of the meeting.

Many members of China's Muslim Hui minority live in Ningxia -- located on the ancient Silk Road -- which may explain why Beijing chose the isolated region as a platform to promote trade with the predominantly Muslim Arab world.

According to organisers of the forum -- which kicked off Wednesday and goes on until Sunday -- the 22 countries that make up the Arab League have sent representatives, along with other non-Arab states, particularly from Africa.

Jia -- head of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a legislative advisory body -- said that over the past five years, trade between China and Arab states has increased from $65 billion to $145 billion.

The exchanges -- once centred on hungry Beijing's need for oil and gas -- are diversifying into the food, financial services, textile, tourism, industrial equipment, aviation and maritime transport sectors.

And according to several participants in the forum in Yinchuan, Ningxia's capital, recent political upheavals in several Arab states are expected to trigger more openness, which will work in favour of trade with China.

"We have seen uncertainties in many countries," said Mohammed Bin Essa Al-Khalifa, head of the Economic Development Board in Bahrain, where Shiite-led democracy protests in March were crushed by the Sunni monarchy.

"At the same time we embrace more opportunities, and we should expect an opening up to commerce... The global economic centre of gravity is moving towards the East."

Amr El-Adawi, an Egyptian businessman who works in China, said he thought the new situation in his country -- where the 30-year reign of Hosni Mubarak ended in February after 18 days of protests -- would be conducive to business.

"We have had 30 years without any development in Egypt," he told AFP.

Tarek Yakhlef from the Tunisian Union for Industry, Commerce and Handicrafts also predicted that the January ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali will create "a favourable environment for exchanges and investment."

He said he had not expected Yinchuan -- with its large, straight avenues bordered by tall buildings -- to be as modern, hidden as it is in remote Ningxia.

"We thought that (only) the coastal towns were developed in China, so we're surprised. Infrastructure (here) is developed, and people are well organised," said Yakhlef.

Other participants in the forum praised the capability of China's industrial firms.

"The Europeans, with all due respect, have two main problems -- delays and capacity," said Khaled El-Ruz, a Kuwaiti who works in the oil and gas industry and in shipyards.

"The Chinese are really occupying the market," he said, adding that they often managed to be 20 percent cheaper on tenders in his sector.

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WTO cuts 2011 world trade growth forecast to 5.8%
Geneva (AFP) Sept 23, 2011 - The World Trade Organization on Friday cut its 2011 trade growth forecast to 5.8 percent from 6.5 percent as earlier predicted, amid increasing economic uncertainty.

"Members must remain vigilant. This is not the time for go-it-alone measures. This is the time to strengthen and preserve the global trading system so that it keeps performing this vital function in the future," warned Pascal Lamy, director-general of the WTO, in a statement.

Trade volumes in developed economies are now projected to grow by 3.7 percent for 2011, as opposed to the 4.5 percent predicted in April.

For developing economies, full year trade growth is expected to reach 8.5 percent, down from the earlier forecast of 9.5 percent.

WTO economists said that since their previous forecast, "developed economies in particular have been buffeted by strong headwinds, including the lingering effects of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the prolonged budget impasse and credit downgrade in the United States, and the ongoing euro area sovereign debt crisis."

Poor output and employment data have also hammered consumer confidence and contributed to the turmoil in the financial markets.

The economists also warned that the current forecast still carries "an unusually high degree of uncertainty" as it is made on the assumption that trade would slow down instead of declining drastically.

On the upside, the economy may see a pick up in growth if policymakers are able to find credible solutions to the debt crisis.

"On the other hand, policy missteps could trigger wider instability along the lines of the crisis that followed the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008," it said.

"Weighing these factors, we believe that risks to the forecast are firmly rooted on the downside but we should not ignore the fact that there is some upside potential," it warned.





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