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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China official PMI shows expansion in positive sign
By Kelly OLSEN
Beijing (AFP) April 1, 2015


Macau casino revenue falls for 10th straight month
Hong Kong (AFP) April 1, 2015 - Macau's casino revenue fell in March for the tenth straight month as China's corruption crackdown took a continuing toll on the city, figures showed Wednesday.

The city saw its second-worst monthly decline of 39 percent for March compared to the same month last year as Beijing encourages the semi-autonomous territory to diversify from gambling and reins in high-rolling visitors from the Chinese mainland.

Gross revenue from gambling for March this year was 21.49 billion patacas ($2.69 billion), according to figures from the former Portuguese colony's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau.

The results were in line with an estimated 40 percent drop by nine analysts polled by Bloomberg News.

Revenue for the first quarter fell 36.6 percent to 64.78 billion patacas.

"We still expect the entire year to show negative growth, (with) every month for the year to be negative," CLSA gaming analyst Aaron Fischer told AFP.

"We've become more cautious on the sector because we're seeing bigger declines in VIP (gamblers)," Fischer said.

"The anti-corruption measures in China have a negative impact on sentiment and people's desire to travel to Macau."

Fischer said he expects the second half to show an improvement helped by the opening of a new hotel and an expansion to an existing casino resort.

Casino revenue for the city plunged a record 49 percent year-on-year in February.

The fall has mostly been attributed to a corruption crackdown spearheaded by Chinese President Xi Jinping which has dented the VIP gaming market.

Xi stressed during a December visit that the territory's economy must diversify away from casinos.

Macau, the only part of China where casino gambling is legal, overtook Las Vegas as the world's casino capital in terms of revenue after the sector was opened up to foreign competition in 2002. Its gambling revenues are still multiple times that of the American city.

China's manufacturing activity expanded in March for the first time since December, the government said Wednesday, a bright spot as the world's second-largest economy fights a broad slowdown in growth.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) came in at 50.1 last month, up from 49.9 in February and the first result showing expansion since a similar 50.1 in December.

The index, which tracks activity in factories and workshops, is considered a key indicator of the health of China's economy, a major driver of global growth. A figure above 50 signals growth, while anything below indicates shrinkage.

The data surprised economists, who attributed the improvement to official efforts to boost the weakening economy.

"After a string of disappointing data, the improvement in the official PMI is welcome news and suggests that the recent rate cuts and pick-up in bank lending growth may be helping to support large firms," Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in reaction to the data.

But he added that the economy still probably suffered a sharp slowdown in the first quarter of the year, meaning more cuts in interest rates and bank reserve ratios were likely.

Investors cheered the result, sending the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index up 1.66 percent to 3,810.29, its highest close in seven years.

The official PMI contracted in January for the first time in more than two years, raising alarm bells for China's growth outlook.

China's economy expanded 7.4 percent in 2014, marking a 24-year low. The slowdown has prompted authorities to loosen monetary policy in a bid to stimulate growth.

The government last month set its annual target for gross domestic product (GDP) expansion at about 7.0 percent, down from its aim of approximately 7.5 percent in 2014.

The central People's Bank of China (PBoC) has cut benchmark interest rates twice since November and has also lowered the amount of funds banks must keep on hand to boost lending and spark economic activity.

- 'Job shedding' -

A closely watched private PMI survey showed conflicting results on Wednesday, with British bank HSBC's final PMI reading for March coming in at 49.6, below break-even, but better than a preliminary reading of 49.2 released last week.

The index, compiled by information services provider Markit, fell from 50.7 in February and has now shown contraction for three of the past four months.

Markit economist Annabel Fiddes said the result showed output growth was suffering as slack domestic and foreign demand weighed on market conditions.

"Company downsizing policies contributed to a further decline in manufacturing employment, with the pace of job shedding the strongest since last summer," she added in a release accompanying the results.

China's leadership is seeking a managed slowdown in GDP growth to more sustainable, consumer-spending driven expansion, as in other major economies such as the United States.

Too steep a deceleration, however, could cost jobs and sow discontent, a key concern of the ruling Communist Party, which places prime emphasis on social stability.

Besides the interest rate and other cuts, the central bank on Monday lowered minimum down payment levels on second homes nationwide in a bid to boost the slumping property market.

The move suggests that "the government will roll out further supportive policies to prevent growth from dropping below 7.0 percent", ANZ economists Liu Li-Gang and Louis Lam said in a note.

Declines in Chinese new home prices slowed in March from the previous month, a private survey showed Tuesday.

The average price of a new home in China's 100 major cities edged down 0.15 percent from February, the China Index Academy (CIA) announced, better than a drop of 0.24 percent in February.


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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China home prices fall in March; Bank deposit insurance starts May 1
Beijing (AFP) March 31, 2015
Falls in Chinese house prices decelerated in March from the previous month, a survey showed Tuesday, after authorities loosened mortgage and tax policies as growth in the world's second-largest economy slows. The average price of a new home in China's 100 major cities edged down 0.15 percent from February to 10,523 yuan ($1,697) per square metre, the China Index Academy (CIA) said in a state ... read more


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