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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China revises 2009 growth up to 9.1 percent

by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) July 2, 2010
China said on Friday its red-hot economy had expanded by 9.1 percent in 2009 in an upward revision that narrows the gap even further with the world's number two economy Japan.

The revision by the national statistics bureau from an earlier figure of 8.7 percent came ahead of second-quarter data due this month that is expected to show the world's third-largest economy slowed in the three months to June.

The country's nominal gross domestic product hit 34.0507 trillion yuan in 2009, which based on the central bank's average yuan-dollar exchange rate for the year equals 4.98 trillion dollars.

However even with the revision, Japan retains its place as the world's second-largest economy. It posted nominal GDP of around 5.07 trillion dollars last year, based on the average dollar-yen exchange rate for 2009, according to data released in June.

The new growth figure is a result of an upward revision of contributions by China's secondary and tertiary industries to last year's GDP, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website.

The growth rate was well above the government's target of eight percent for the full year, a level seen as crucial for fostering job creation and staving off social unrest among China's urbanising 1.3-billion-strong population.

China powered out of the global financial crisis last year on the back of a government stimulus package worth four trillion yuan (586 billion dollars), which saw massive investment in highways, bridges and other infrastructure.

"We think the impact of the stimulus package was greater than what was reported," said Erwin Sanft, an economist at BNP Paribas in Hong Kong.

"Therefore an upward revision doesn't surprise us."

Royal Bank of Canada senior analyst Brian Jackson said the new figure would have little impact on this year's growth rate.

"This revision shows China's out-performance last year was even more impressive than it first appeared, but it doesn't have major implications for how fast it will grow this year," Jackson said.

After returning to double-digit growth of 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, China's economy accelerated to 11.9 percent in the first quarter of this year, fuelling fears the economy was at risk of overheating.

Worried an explosion in bad debts could derail the economic surge, Beijing announced a series of measures to rein in bank lending and speculative property investment to avoid a real estate bubble.

Most economists think the economy slowed in the second quarter due to these tightening measures and a slowdown in manufacturing activity.

Royal Bank of Scotland economist Ben Simpfendorfer has forecast 11.1 percent growth in the second quarter.

"The list of indicators signalling a slowing economy is lengthening -- the purchasing managers index is lower, iron ore imports are weaker and equities have fallen," Simpfendorfer said in a note to clients this week.

Premier Wen Jiabao said this week the economy was "developing in the expected direction", suggesting recent tightening moves would remain in place despite signs of a slowdown.



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