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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China says industrial output, retail sales rise in Aug
By Fran WANG
Beijing (AFP) Sept 13, 2016


China bank PSBC launches $8.1 bn IPO: reports
Hong Kong (AFP) Sept 13, 2016 - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) launched an initial public offering in Hong Kong worth $8.1 billion on Tuesday, reports said, in what is expected to be the world's biggest flotation this year.

The Beijing-based lender is offering 12.1 billion shares at HK$4.68 to HK$5.18 each, according to Bloomberg, which said cornerstone investors would buy the majority of the stock.

The listing is expected be the biggest since that of Chinese Internet giant Alibaba in New York in 2014, which raised $25 billion.

PSBC is China's fifth-largest lender with 40,000 branches -- more than any other bank in the country -- and around 70 percent in rural areas.

Founded in 2007, it provides basic banking services to farmers and agricultural business owners, and it is the only financial institution present in some of the country's most remote regions.

According to the latest figures, PSBC's total assets reached 7.7 trillion yuan by March. Its net profit rose 11 percent year-on-year in the first quarter to 12.48 billion yuan.

"PSBC's earnings indicators such as profit and non-performing loan (NPL) ratios are better than other commercial banks in China," Dong Ximiao, senior economist and visiting fellow at Renmin University of China, told AFP.

But he added that the bank's low NPL ratios were due to it lending less, weakening its earnings capacity.

"The bank is trying to transform into a modern commercial bank using funds raised from the offering. But the task will be a challenging one," he said.

Previously completely state-owned, PSBC raised 45.1 billion yuan ($7 billion) by selling a 16.92 percent stake to 10 strategic investors in December, valuing the firm at $40.6 billion.

Among the buyers were e-commerce giant Alibaba's affiliate Ant Financial and Tencent, another internet behemoth.

Moody's warns on Hong Kong rating after polls
Hong Kong (AFP) Sept 13, 2016 - Hong Kong's credit rating could be at risk after the success of a new generation of young anti-China politicians in legislative elections this month, Moody's warned.

The first poll since mass "Umbrella Movement" protests against Beijing two years ago saw the election of five lawmakers backing independence or self-determination to the Legislative Council (LegCo).

But Moody's said the city's Aa1 rating, the agency's second highest, could be in trouble if the increased ranks of opposition politicians slow down policymaking.

"With these results, filibustering, which has become increasingly common in the past two years, is likely to continue, a credit-negative development that will result in slow and less effective policymaking," it said in a report published Monday.

It also said it expects the political divide to widen in the near future.

"In this environment, political friction is likely to continue and may intensify ahead of the chief executive election in March 2017," it said of the city's leadership election.

Financial secretary John Tsang said Tuesday the ratings agency should be "fair" to the city.

"If they know the situation better, then maybe they will know whether or not it will truly affect the overall economy or the workings of the government," Tsang said.

Moody's in March downgraded the city's outlook from "stable" to "negative", citing increasing political riskiness and closer economic ties with China, which is facing a growth slowdown.

The democratic camp including independence activists gained three seats in the 70-strong LegCo at the September 4 poll. That gives them the 30 members needed to veto key bills, which can only be passed with a two-thirds majority.

However, the overall make-up of the LegCo remains weighted towards Beijing under a system that makes it almost impossible for the democracy camp to take a majority.

China's industrial output and retail sales growth accelerated in August, government statistics showed Tuesday, with both of them exceeding expectations in encouraging signs for the world's second-largest economy.

Industrial production rose 6.3 percent year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, faster than July's 6.0 percent and above the median forecast of 6.2 percent in a Bloomberg News poll of economists.

Retail sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose 10.6 percent in August, the NBS said, also ahead of expectations and the July figure.

Beijing is looking to retool the economy from a reliance on investment spending and exports to one driven more by consumer demand, but the transition has proven bumpy and gross domestic product growth has been slowing.

China is a key driver of the world economy but grew at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century last year, and has decelerated further since then.

"In August... some indicators picked up, efforts of cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs and strengthening weak links achieved notable results," said NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun.

"The national economy has achieved moderate but steady and sound development," he added, but urged caution.

"We must be aware that the domestic and external economic conditions are still complicated and severe with many instabilities and uncertainties," he said.

Fixed asset investment, a gauge of infrastructure spending, was up 8.1 percent in the first eight months of the year, matching the figure for the January-July period.

Retail sales beat expectations of 10.2 percent in a Bloomberg News poll of economists, while fixed asset investment was ahead of the 7.9 percent estimate.

Online retail sales rose 26.7 percent in the first eight months of the year from the same period in 2015, dwarfing the 10.3 percent growth in overall retail sales and accounting for 11.6 percent of the total.

But analysts were cautious about August's figures, and investors gave them a lukewarm response, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ending just 0.05 percent higher.

- 'Under pressure' -

"Today's data fits with our long-running view that the delayed impact of earlier policy easing means that a stronger second half to this year is likely," Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

But he said that further monetary easing was "unlikely in the near-term", so that "this uptick in economic activity is likely to fizzle out going into next year".

Beijing has listed reducing overcapacity and excess inventory and cutting down borrowing as top priorities, with the country's ailing steel industry -- accused by US and European rivals of dumping on world markets -- a key target.

Authorities have set a goal to cut 45 million tonnes of annual steel capacity this year, with the official Communist mouthpiece People's Daily last month saying around 21 million tonnes had been eliminated by July.

But actual production of crude steel was up 3.0 percent year-on-year in August, the NBS figures showed, accelerating from 2.6 percent the previous month.

"We expect investment to remain under pressure in the rest of the year because of slower real estate construction and spare capacity in key sectors," Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note.

"But with industrial profits recovering recently and investment itself also, in August, the downward pressure should diminish."

Maintaining growth is a key priority for China's Communist party, which is keen to avoid the risk of unemployment-driven social unrest, and claims rising living standards in recent decades as part of its right to rule.

Sheng said employment could remain stable despite slowing growth as "labour-intensive" service industries were making up more of the economy. One percentage point of GDP growth now creates 1.7 million jobs, he said, 400,000 to 500,000 more than in 2011-2013.


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