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TRADE WARS
China warns WTO facing 'existential crisis' amid US trade moves
by Staff Writers
Geneva (AFP) May 13, 2019

China 'won't surrender' to pressure in US trade war
Beijing (AFP) May 13, 2019 - China warned Monday that it will "never surrender to external pressure" after the United States ordered tariffs on almost all Chinese exports.

The latest round of trade negotiations ended Friday without a deal, with President Donald Trump increasing tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent and ordering the start of a process to impose new duties on another $300 billion.

China vowed last week to hit back with the "necessary countermeasures", though it has yet to specify what they will look like.

"China will never surrender to external pressure," foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular briefing Monday.

"We are determined to have the ability to safeguard our legitimate rights and interests."

"We have said many times that imposing tariffs will not solve any problems," Geng said, adding that China hoped the United States will work with Beijing to reach a "mutually beneficial and win-win agreement."

China's top trade negotiator, Liu He, said Friday that talks would continue in Beijing at an unspecified date.

White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow told US media Sunday that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could meet next month on the sidelines of the G20 summit to hash out their differences on trade, although no new talks are scheduled.

"The two presidents maintain contact through various means," Geng said, without confirming a possible meeting between the two leaders.

Beijing has so far slapped tariffs on $110 billion worth of US goods in retaliation to the US punitive duties.

A further $50 billion in Chinese goods which were already hit with 25 percent tariffs last summer were left unchanged by Trump.

China on Monday blamed US policies for creating an "existential crisis" at the World Trade Organization, and urged reform of the body to help it withstand the pressure from Washington.

In a document posted on the WTO website, China cautioned that a range of recent "unilateralist and protectionist practices" had "undermined the authority and efficacy of the WTO".

"As a consequence, the organisation is facing an unprecedented existential crisis," it said.

China did not mention the United States by name, but it referred to a number of policies clearly associated with Washington.

Among other things, it warned that the decision by a "certain member" to use its national security as a pretext to impose "unwarranted tariffs on steel and aluminium", had "disturbed the international trade order and international market... and undermined the relevant rules of the WTO".

It also slammed the unnamed WTO member for taking "unilateralist measures of raising trade barriers and imposing import tariffs in an arbitrary way and without authorisation from the WTO".

The document was released amid new eruptions in the US-China trade war, despite ongoing discussions aiming to resolve the two countries' differences.

Beijing said earlier Monday it would raise tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods from June 1 in retaliation for the latest round of US tariff hikes on $200 billion worth in Chinese products.

US President Donald Trump had also ordered the start of a process to impose new duties on another $300 billion worth of Chinese items.

Trump, who began the standoff last year complaining about unfair Chinese trade practices, has specifically blasted the WTO for slighting US trade interests to the benefit of China.

In the document filed to the WTO, China said it supported "necessary reform of the WTO so as to overcome its existential crisis, enhance its authority and efficacy, and increase its relevance in terms of global economic governance."

It stressed the need to resolve several "urgent issues threatening the existence of the WTO".

In addition to the issues related to tariffs, it decried the blockage of the appointment of new judges to the appellate chamber at WTO's Dispute Settlement Body.

The appellate body, which offers a last resort to settle international trade disputes and avoid escalation between countries, normally counts seven judges.

But the number has gradually dwindled amid Washington's refusal to agree to fresh appointees, amid US complaints the body's arbitrators treat the US unfairly.

The Chinese document warned that if the blockage continues, there will be only one WTO appeals judge left in office by December.

"Such a situation would severely threaten the proper functioning of the dispute settlement mechanism and therefore pose an imminent and institutional risk to the Organization," it said.

China's arsenal in the trade war against the United States
Beijing (AFP) May 14, 2019 - Beijing's latest retaliation against US tariff hikes -- an increase on $60 billion of US imports from June 1 -- could leave China running low on ammunition in the trade war.

China imports almost four times less than it exports to the United States, and Beijing already levies punitive charges on almost all US goods arriving in China -- $110 billion out of an annual total of $120 billion.

So if Beijing does up its tariffs to as high as 25 percent on a range of US products, including liquefied natural gas, chemicals, fruit, vegetables and seafood, it may limit its room for manoeuvre.

Here AFP looks at some of China's options:

- Tariff tussling? -

"Tariffs are a self-inflicted wound. You are raising the import costs of your own producers," said Robert Lawrence, professor of trade and investment at Harvard University.

However, in the middle of a trade war "economic considerations are secondary", he said, because "it is much more about posturing, bargaining and politics".

"Can China be seen to be passively accepting these measures from the United States?"

Cars and auto parts from the US face the prospect of a 25 percent hike in duties.

Announced by Beijing in December, the measure was suspended at the beginning of the year but can be easily reactivated.

The sector, crucial for the US economy, also represents an important electoral base for Donald Trump.

- Devalue the yuan? -

Trump regularly accuses the Chinese central bank of lowering its currency rate to support exporting firms, but is it an option?

Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific chief economist for IHS Markit, says no.

"It is not a realistic strategy for China to try to mitigate a 25 percent tariff by allowing further declines in the yuan," he told AFP.

"A key priority for the Chinese government since 2015 has been to stabilise the exchange rate and prevent large capital outflows, in order to protect its foreign exchange reserves.

"Therefore the Chinese government is unlikely to want any potentially destabilising decline in the yuan, which could trigger renewed large capital outflows."

- Penalise businesses? -

China could make life difficult for US companies in the country in the form of regulatory requirements or customs blockages.

These measures "will get a lot of support in China, but will further undermine business confidence" abroad, said Jake Parker from the US-China Business Council.

If Beijing went for that option, that would constitute an "escalation", according to Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).

"If you do that, then you run the risk that the Trump administration decides to do a 'ZTE'," referring to when Washington last year banned all sales of electronic components to the Chinese telecoms giant, jeopardising its very existence.

The White House accused the firm of violating embargoes against Iran and North Korea. Donald Trump finally agreed to reconsider the decision.

- Call for a boycott? -

The Chinese could be encouraged not to buy American flagship products, such as the iPhone.

Amid frosty relations with Japan in 2012 or South Korea in 2017, boycott campaigns led to a 50 percent collapse in sales for both countries' car brands in one month.

However, such a measure would also penalise the millions of Chinese employed by American companies and their local partners.

- Snub Boeing? -

China is key to Boeing, to whom it sells a quarter of its planes.

The editor of the nationalist newspaper Global Times -- controlled by the Chinese government -- pondered the possibility that the country would reduce its Boeing orders, although the US aircraft manufacturer said it was "confident".

At the end of March, Beijing nevertheless finalised a firm order for 300 aircraft from European giant Airbus when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited France.

- Sell the debt? -

China is the largest holder of US debt (about $1.2 trillion), but selling a big part of it would be risky because any destabilisation of the markets could undermine the value of Treasury bonds held by Beijing.


Related Links
Global Trade News


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TRADE WARS
It's everyday Americans who pay Trump's tariffs
Washington (AFP) May 9, 2019
President Donald Trump has repeatedly boasted that the tariffs he has imposed on trading partners are a financial windfall for the US treasury, but research shows it is Americans that bear the brunt of the impact. Trump plans to ratchet up tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent on Friday, and said the US will be fine without a trade deal since it is raking in the proceed from the tariffs. But that announcement worries businesses and farmers, and has shaken up investors worl ... read more

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