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TRADE WARS
China's 'Silk Road' project runs into debt jam
By Julien GIRAULT
Beijing (AFP) Sept 2, 2018

Deal on China-backed mega free trade pact likely in November: Singapore
Singapore (AFP) Sept 1, 2018 - Broad agreement on what would be the world's biggest free trade deal is expected to be reached at a leaders' summit in Singapore in November, the city-state's trade minister said Saturday.

The 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which will cover about half the world's population and a third of its GDP, has taken centre stage as Washington embarks on a unilateral, protectionist agenda.

The RCEP is backed by China and notably excludes the US, which had been leading another regional pact -- the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) -- until President Donald Trump abandoned it on coming to office early last year.

Trump, whose administration has embarked on an America-first policy and is engaged in a tit-for-tat trade brawl with China, will skip two Asian summits in November, including one in Singapore.

RCEP trade ministers and negotiators met in Singapore on Thursday and Friday on the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathering.

The RCEP will group the 10 ASEAN members plus China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. It will become the world's biggest free trade pact if agreement is reached.

Singapore Trade and Industry Minister Chan Chun Sing said the RCEP talks have reached their "most challenging stage" but maintained that an agreement was in sight.

"We are looking for that broad agreement, that milestone to be achieved, or what we call substantial conclusion, when the leaders meet at the end of the year," he said at a news conference Saturday, referring to the November summit.

"Just like climbing a mountain, as we go nearer and nearer to the summit, the climb can become steeper and more challenging," Chan said.

A diplomatic source said one possible sticking point is the degree to which countries are willing to open up their markets to each other for goods, services and investments.

For a deal to be reached, countries must work to narrow their differences and show flexibility to accommodate each other's concerns, Chan added.

Beijing is keen to use Washington's rejection of the TPP to increase its influence in the region by backing the ASEAN-led RCEP and endorsing free trade.

RCEP is a more modest deal that prescribes lower and more limited regulatory standards.

The 11 remaining TPP members signed a slimmed down version of the agreement in March.

China's massive and expanding "Belt and Road" trade infrastructure project is running into speed bumps as some countries begin to grumble about being buried under Chinese debt.

First announced in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, the initiative also known as the "new Silk Road" envisions the construction of railways, roads and ports across the globe, with Beijing providing billions of dollars in loans to many countries.

Five years on, Xi has found himself defending his treasured idea as concerns grow that China is setting up debt traps in countries which may lack the means to pay back the Asian giant.

"It is not a China club," Xi said in a speech on Monday to mark the project's anniversary, describing Belt and Road as an "open and inclusive" project.

Xi said China's trade with Belt and Road countries had exceeded $5 trillion, with outward direct investment surpassing $60 billion.

But some are starting to wonder if it is worth the cost.

During a visit to Beijing in August, Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said his country would shelve three China-backed projects, including a $20 billion railway.

The party of Pakistan's new prime minister, Imran Khan, has vowed more transparency amid fears about the country's ability to repay Chinese loans related to the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Meanwhile the exiled leader of the opposition in the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, has said China's actions in the Indian Ocean archipelago amounted to a "land grab" and "colonialism", with 80 percent of its debt held by Beijing.

Sri Lanka has already paid a heavy price for being highly indebted to China.

Last year, the island nation had to grant a 99-year lease on a strategic port to Beijing over its inability to repay loans for the $1.4-billion project.

- 'Ambiguous partner' -

"China does not have a very competent international bureaucracy in foreign aid, in expansion of soft power," Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder and research director at J Capital Research, told AFP.

"So not surprisingly they're not very good at it, and it brought up political issues like Malaysia that nobody anticipated," she said.

"As the RMB (yuan) becomes weaker, and China is perceived internationally as a more ambiguous partner, it's more likely that the countries will take a more jaundiced eye on these projects."

The huge endeavour brings much-needed infrastructure improvements to developing countries, while giving China destinations to unload its industrial overcapacity and facilities to stock up on raw materials.

But a study by the Center for Global Development, a US think-tank, found "serious concerns" about the sustainability of the sovereign debt in eight countries receiving Silk Road funds.

Those were Pakistan, Djibouti, Maldives, Mongolia, Laos, Montenegro, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The cost of a China-Laos railway project -- $6.7 billion -- represents almost half of the Southeast Asian country's GDP, according to the study.

In Djibouti, the IMF has warned that the Horn of Africa country faces a "high risk of debt distress" as its public debt jumped from 50 percent of GDP in 2014 to 85 percent in 2016.

Africa has long embraced Chinese investment, helping make Beijing the continent's largest trading partner for the past decade.

On Monday, a number of African leaders will gather in Beijing for a summit focused on economic ties which will include talks on the "Belt and Road" programme.

- 'Not a free lunch' -

China bristles at criticism.

At a daily press briefing on Friday, foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying denied that Beijing was saddling its partners with onerous debt, saying that its loans to Sri Lanka and Pakistan were only a small part of those countries' overall foreign debt.

"It's unreasonable that money coming out of Western countries is praised as good and sweet, while coming out of China it's sinister and a trap," she said.

Stevenson-Yang said China's loans are quoted in dollar terms, "but in reality they're lending in terms of tractors, shipments of coal, engineering services and things like that, and they ask for repayment in hard currency."

Standard & Poor's said Beijing structures the infrastructure projects as long-term concessions, with a Chinese firm operating the facility for a period of 20 to 30 years while splitting the proceeds with the local counterpart or government.

The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, raised concerns about potential debt problems in April and advocated greater transparency.

"It's not a free lunch, it's something where everybody chips in," she said.


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TRADE WARS
China-backed trade pact talks at 'critical stage': Singapore PM
Singapore (AFP) Aug 29, 2018
Talks on a China-backed free-trade pact have reached a "critical stage", Singapore's leader said Wednesday as he urged regional economic ministers to seal the deal by the end of the year. The 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which will be the world's biggest free-trade accord if it is agreed, has taken centre stage as Washington embarks on a unilateral, protectionist agenda. Covering about half the world's population, the RCEP notably excludes the US, which had been ... read more

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