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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's economic growth slows to 9.2% in 2011
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Jan 17, 2012


China said Tuesday its economy expanded by 9.2 percent last year, slowing from 2010, as global turbulence and efforts to tame high inflation put the brakes on growth.

But the still healthy annual growth suggested that the world's number two economy would avoid a much-feared hard landing despite slumping demand from key export markets in the United States and Europe, analysts said.

The figures, down from 10.4 percent growth in 2010 but well above the government 2011 target of 8.0 percent, also suggest the central bank will be less likely to ease credit in the short-term.

"This indicates our economy is still good and quite stable, and a soft landing for the economy is more possible. Therefore, the government is likely to postpone the next policy easing move," said Li Huiyong, economist at Shenyin Wanguo Securities in Shanghai.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said, slower than in the third quarter, but still exceeding analyst expectations.

"It's slowing, even though it's not particularly aggressive. The economy seems to be surprisingly resilient so far," said Stephen Green, regional head of research for Greater China at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.

Output from the country's millions of factories and workshops rose 13.9 percent for all of 2011, a slower pace than in 2010, as manufacturers faced reduced demand from key export markets.

Urban fixed asset investment -- a measure of government spending on infrastructure -- rose at a slightly slower pace of 23.8 percent last year as Beijing retreated from stimulus measures.

And retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, rose 17.1 percent in 2011, slightly slower than in 2010, despite government moves to boost domestic consumption and make it play a greater role in economic growth.

Statistics bureau chief Ma Jiantang warned that China could face a tough year ahead in light of Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

"We must say that 2012 will be a year of complexity and challenges," he told a news conference.

"Given the turbulence in international financial markets and more serious protectionism in various forms, we're going to face serious challenges."

He played down worries over debt-burdened local governments and a collapse in the property market as the government seeks to bring down home prices.

Local governments, which are banned from borrowing directly from banks, have set up financing vehicles to fund infrastructure and other projects but growing debts have fuelled concerns about a potential explosion in bad loans.

China introduced a range of measures aimed at bringing down property prices last year, such as bans on buying second homes in some cities, hiking minimum down-payments and introducing property taxes.

"We believe that as long as we work hard we will be able to maintain steady and fairly fast economic growth in 2012," Ma said.

Most economists are predicting GDP growth of 8.0-8.5 percent for 2012. China will unveil its economic growth target at the annual session of the legislature in March.

"The slowdown that's been under way for some time continues to be the trend, but it's a slowdown to a rate that's still pretty healthy... and a rate which the Chinese government seems comfortable with," said Andy Rothman, China macro-strategist for brokerage CLSA.

Year-on-year growth in China has slowed for four straight quarters as Beijing -- anxious about soaring costs -- restricted lending and hiked interest rates, while US and European demand for Chinese-made products also weakened.

Nonetheless the fourth-quarter GDP growth beat a forecast of 8.6 percent by analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

The news lifted China's stock market, with the benchmark Shanghai index closing up more than 4.0 percent on Tuesday.

In a bid to boost growth and counter the slowdown in export demand, authorities in December cut the amount of money banks must hold in reserve for the first time in three years.

Some had expected the government to move again to loosen credit as early as this month, but stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter could give policy-makers breathing room, analysts said.

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China's property market slows in 2011
Shanghai (AFP) Jan 17, 2012 - China's property market slowed last year, official figures showed Tuesday, as the government sought to bring down runaway housing prices amid fears of a speculative bubble.

The country introduced a range of measures aimed at curbing the real estate market last year, such as bans on buying second homes in some cities, hiking minimum down-payments and introducing property taxes.

Overall property investment rose an annual 27.9 percent to 6.17 trillion yuan ($980 billion) in 2011, slowing from growth of 33.2 percent in 2010, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Meanwhile, housing sales -- excluding government subsidised homes -- rose 12.1 percent to 5.91 trillion yuan last year, marking a slowdown from 18.9 percent growth in 2010.

"Our major progress is that speculative-based investment in the property market has been curbed," statistics bureau chief Ma Jiantang told a news conference in Beijing.

Analysts have warned the correction in the property market is threatening to drag on economic growth this year, despite government resolve to keep control measures firmly in place.

Alistair Thornton of IHS Global Insight in Beijing said the rapid slowdown in property investment in the final month of last year indicated the overall economy was undergoing an "aggressive" slowdown.

"In this light, the property market correction is providing the greatest downside momentum," he said in a research note.

At the same time, China has pledged to invest more than $700 billion in low-cost housing to help those priced out of the market, with plans to build or renovate 36 million homes over the next five years.

Property developers are hoping Beijing will ease control measures this year, though analysts are divided on the timing of such a move.

In Shanghai, among China's most vibrant property markets, city mayor Han Zheng has dashed hopes of an immediate relaxation.

"This year, the strength of the property market control measures will not be reduced and the policy will not change," he told a news conference on Monday.

Home prices in most major Chinese cities dropped in November last year from the previous month with 49 of the 70 Chinese cities tracked by the government reporting falls.

The government is due to release property price figures for December on Wednesday.

Statistics bureau chief Ma played down concerns that the slowing property market might present a risk for the overall economy.

"Local debt and the property market will not constitute the largest risks for China's economic fundamentals," he said.

There are also worries local governments, who borrowed heavily to fund infrastructure and other projects, could cause an explosion in bad debt.



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