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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's industrial output growth wanes
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) March 12, 2016


Moody's downgrades Hong Kong outlook to 'negative'
Hong Kong (AFP) March 12, 2016 - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded its outlook for Hong Kong on Saturday, citing increasing political riskiness and closer economic ties with China, which is facing a growth slowdown.

Moody's changed Hong Kong's outlook from "stable" to "negative" as the semi-autonomous city continues to reel from political unease following mass pro-democracy protests in 2014.

The city saw violent street clashes between police and protesters last month and the fate of five Hong Kong booksellers who went missing and later turned up on the mainland, with four now under criminal investigation, is still in question.

The case has triggered fears of increasing Chinese interference in the city.

"Increasing political linkages are likely to weigh on Hong Kong's institutional strength," Moody's Investors Service said in a statement.

"Political risk has risen in Hong Kong in light of ongoing tensions over the implementation of the 'One Country, Two systems' policy," it said, referring to the policy that grants the city freedoms not seen on the mainland.

It warned that tensions could rise in the lead-up to an election next year for the city's leader, which it said could "impair the effectiveness of government policies".

The vote is the first following a failed political reform package last year that saw pro-democracy lawmakers vote down a proposal that would have opened the ballot for the city's leader to all seven million residents instead of only allowing Beijing-vetted candidates to run.

A Hong Kong government spokesman said Moody's comments were "purely speculative and subjective statements without any ground".

"There has been no evidence of mainland interference in Hong Kong affairs or Hong Kong institutions losing independence over time," he said in a statement.

Moody's report also said risk in China's economy and financial stability could also undermine the city's economic outlook.

"The elevated volatility in Hong Kong's financial markets in recent months has mirrored developments in China's markets, highlighting the strong transmission of changes in risk aversion from China to Hong Kong."

The world's second-largest economy expanded 6.9 percent in 2015, the worst performance in a quarter of a century and a far cry from the golden years of double-digit increases.

Moody's also downgraded China's outlook from "stable" to "negative" earlier this month.

But Hong Kong's financial secretary John Tsang said close links to Beijing were a boon, not a burden.

"What they consider as risks from China, we see as opportunities from China," Tsang told reporters.

China's industrial production during the first two months of the year grew at its slowest rate since the global financial crisis, the government said Saturday, with top officials vowing to support growth and the volatile stock market.

The measure, which gauges output at the country's factories, workshops and mines, rose 5.4 percent year-on-year in January and February.

The figures were the weakest since November 2008 as China seeks to effect a difficult transition from an investment and export-driven growth model to one led by consumer spending.

Despite the darkening outlook the People's Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan told reporters Saturday that there was no need for "excessive" monetary stimulus to hit the government's target of at least 6.5 percent growth over the next five years.

And while worries about the economy have weighed on investors this year and spurred a stock market slump, on Saturday the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission said at a briefing that the state would intervene "if the market is not working properly at all or continues to fail".

"It will be too early to talk about withdrawing" state support for stocks "for rather a long time into the future", Liu Shiyu said.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, increased 10.2 percent in the same period, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Fixed-asset investment, a measure of mainly government spending on infrastructure, expanded 10.2 percent on-year for the first two months of 2016.

Results fell short of economists' expectations, according to a survey by Bloomberg News, which predicted a year-on-year increase in retail sales of 10.9 percent, while industrial production was projected to expand 5.6 percent.

- Restoring confidence -

NBS analyst Jiang Yuan blamed the disappointing industrial output data on sluggish foreign demand, the government's efforts to cut pollution-heavy production of steel, cement and coal and slumping output of tobacco products.

"The decline in industrial output growth in the January-February period was due to industrial structural reforms and the unstable basis of an industrial recovery as well as seasonal factors," Jiang said in a statement.

The NBS released statistics covering two months to smooth out distortions due to China's Lunar New year holiday last month.

Wang Baobin, another NBS analyst, attributed accelerating fixed-asset investment to government policies and construction projects to support the economy and a pickup in property investment growth to three percent compared to one percent for all of 2015.

"The government continued to earmark funds at the start of this year to accelerate the start of a series of major constructions," Wang said.

But analysts with investment bank CICC Macro said that the pick-up in public infrastructure spending will not boost private sector investment unless "their confidence can be restored".

China's leaders have sought to reassure global investors during the annual meeting of the rubber-stamp National People's Congress (NPC), with the country's top economic planner saying last week that the country "absolutely will not have a hard landing".

Premier Li Keqiang set the growth target for this year in a range of 6.5-7 percent, acknowledging in a speech opening the NPC that "China will face more and tougher problems and challenges in its development this year, so we must be fully prepared to fight a difficult battle".

The data are the latest snapshot of the health of the Asian colossus -- a major driver of the global economy -- which grew 6.9 percent last year, the slowest rate in a quarter century.

China growth target 'achievable' without aggressive stimulus: central banker
Beijing (AFP) March 12, 2016 - China can achieve its growth target without aggressive monetary stimulus, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Saturday, while acknowledging numerous "difficulties and challenges" facing the world's second-largest economy.

"We will keep monetary policy stable and don't think it is necessary to take excessive monetary stimulus to achieve the (growth) target," he told reporters at a briefing on the sidelines of the National People's Congress, the Communist-controlled parliament.

The government will keep liquidity "reasonably abundant" given the slowing growth momentum of the economy, Zhou said.

"Currently we underline the downward pressures on the economy, which faces a relatively large number of difficulties and challenges," he said.

The Chinese economy grew at its slowest pace in a quarter century last year and Beijing last week cut its 2016 expansion target to 6.5-7 percent, down from "about seven percent" previously.

The global market remains concerned over the outlook of China's economy and analysts have questioned Beijing's ability to maintain growth while implementing reforms to transform the economic model to one that relies on consumption rather than government-driven investment and exports.

The central bank has cut interest rate six times since late 2014 and also reduced the amount of funds banks must set aside as reserves to boost lending.

Reflecting jitters over the prospects of the Chinese economy, the country has seen a flood of cash leaving in the past few months and its foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, continue to decline.

Asked about the declines, Zhou said such outflows were "not strange at all" given that China enjoyed massive inflows for many years.

"There is no need at all to rush to buy US dollars," he said.

China's foreign exchange reserves dropped $28.6 billion to $3.20 trillion at the end of February from the previous month, after falling $99.5 billion in January and a record $108 billion in December.


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