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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate battle will 'succeed or fail' in Asia: UN
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) Aug 2, 2019

July heatwave up to 3C hotter due to climate change
Paris (AFP) Aug 2, 2019 - The record-shattering heatwave that baked much of northern Europe last month was likely between 1.5 to 3 degrees Celsius hotter due to manmade climate change, an international team of scientists said Friday.

The three-day peak saw temperature records tumble in Belgium, the Netherlands and Britain and the city of Paris experienced its hottest ever day with the mercury topping out at 42.6C (108.7 Fahrenheit) on July 25.

The ferocious heat came off the back of a similar wave of soaring temperatures in June, helping that month to be the hottest June since records began.

Scientists from the World Weather Attribution team combined climate modelling with historical heatwave trends and compared it with in situ monitoring across the continent.

They concluded that the temperatures in the climate models were between 1.5-3C lower than those observed during the heatwave in Europe.

"In all locations an event like the observed would have been 1.5 to 3C cooler in an unchanged climate," the WWA said, adding that the difference was "consistent with increased instances of morbidity and mortality."

Global warming also made the July heatwave in some countries between 10-100 times more likely to occur, compared with computer simulations.

Such temperature extremes in northern Europe, without the additional 1C centigrade humans have added to the atmosphere since the industrial era, would be expected on average once every 1000 years.

"Climate change had therefore a major influence to explain such temperatures," the WWA said.

The July heatwave caused widespread disruption, prompting train cancellations and emergency measures in many cities. Several heat-related deaths were reported, though a precise toll is likely to take weeks to materialise.

The June heatwave itself was likely made at least five times more likely by climate change, and was around 4C hotter than an equivalent heatwave a century ago.

"Models are very good at representing large-scale seasonal changes in temperatures," said Friederike Otto, acting director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford.

"On localised scales, climate models tend to underestimate the increase in temperature."

- Hottest Europe summers -

Europe has experienced exceptionally intense heatwaves in 2003, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2018 and two this year, peaks consistent with the general warming trend: the four hottest years on record globally were the last four years.

Martha Vogel, a climate researcher at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich who was involved in the WWA research, said it was "virtually certain" that Europe's 2018 heatwave -- which sparked widespread wildfires -- could not have occurred without climate change.

Vogel and the team in a study published last month found that just 2C of warming -- levels aimed for in the Paris climate deal -- would see a 2018-style heatwave happen every year.

"The five hottest European summers -- 2018, 2010, 2003, 2016, 2002 -- were all in this century," she told AFP.

The battle to combat climate change will "succeed or fail" based on what happens in Asia, where growing energy needs are increasing demand for fossil fuels, UN officials said Friday.

The United Nations will host a key climate summit next month that has been billed as a last chance to prevent irreversible climate change, three years after the Paris agreement went into force.

Commitments from countries in Asia to move towards carbon-neutral economies would be crucial, said Rachel Kyte, a UN special representative for the UN Secretary-General.

"It is really in this region that we will succeed or fail in the energy transition in order to be able to meet our climate change goals," Kyte told reporters.

The summit hopes to secure commitments to zero net carbon by 2050, but growing demand for electricity in Asia is likely to be one of the key obstacles.

"Southeast Asia is one of the fastest growing economic regions in the world. This is where population and urbanisation mean that electricity demand is expected to triple between 2015 and 2040," warned Kyte.

"In order to meet this, Southeast Asia is currently turning to fossil fuels, many countries are."

New coal plant projects continue throughout the region, particularly in Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, and countries including Japan are funding their construction despite criticism from climate groups.

But Kyte said the sector should be seen as on its way out.

"There is really no future for coal," she insisted.

"It is not competitive by price... and it has such an extreme impact on human health as well as on the planet."

In recent months, some private sector firms in Japan and elsewhere have moved away from funding coal, seeing it as a poor long-term investment, a trend that Kyte said was encouraging, along with growing energy efficiency in China and India.

Luis Alfonso de Alba, UN Special Envoy for the Climate Action Summit, also challenged the idea that the transformations needed to combat global warming would hamstring economic development.

"Fighting climate change is fully compatible with the fight against poverty," he said.

"There are many opportunities, especially for those that will take the lead in this transition, which in any case is going to be inevitable."

A key part of the climate summit's success will be China's commitment, which remains both a leading emitter and also a key financier of coal plants in the region.

Beijing wields significant economic clout throughout the region and beyond thanks to its Belt and Road Initiative, which funds infrastructure projects and more.

"The greening of the belt and road initiative is absolutely essential," Kyte said.

"We are tentatively positive about the extraordinary hard work that is going on in China to make sure that that happens."

French 'climate camps' train activists in protest
Kingersheim, France (AFP) Aug 4, 2019 - Christine, a retiree from southwest France, has been attending marches with climate activists since November. Now she's taking things a step further with a stay in a training camp for activists.

Participants have 12 days to learn a range of techniques developed by veteran activists: everything from getting the media's attention to passively resisting the police.

"I couldn't look at myself in the mirror if I didn't act," said Christine, mingling with younger people and family groups at the camp in the eastern town of Kingersheim.

While the atmosphere is relaxed and good humoured, the thousand people at the camp, many of them new to activism, are all quite serious about their goal -- to learn the techniques used by the new generation of climate campaigners.

First they learn the basics; how to crowd-fund a campaign; use online networks securely; get their message across at demos and lobby local politicians.

First aid classes are also provided.

Other key elements of the training, organised by a network of activists' groups, include learning non-violent techniques while resisting the authorities and using civil disobedience to promote their cause.

In neighbouring Germany, all these techniques were applied during mass protests near an open-cast lignite mine in June -- quickly followed by a peaceful mass occupation of the site that generated widespread media coverage.

- Growing numbers -

"When I do marches for the climate, I see people passing who don't look, so I suddenly thought it's important to be able to make placards that stand out," says 15-year-old Myriam Tremoulinas, her face lit up with a smile.

She was leaning over a flag on which she painted a logo as part of a workshop on making materials for demos. She is also learning to make "armlocks": tubes activists wear to transform themselves into human chains.

It will not be long before some of the people here get a chance to put this training into practice. The next G7 summit will take place at Biarritz, on the southwest coast of France at the end of the month.

When the first of these "climate camps" was organised in 2016, 300 people turned up to be trained. The following summer, there were 600.

"This year, we've just crossed a threshold," says Khaled Gaiji, president of Les Amis de la Terre (Friends of the Earth).

From being just a few marginal activists they have become something of a social phenomenon.

"It's a good thing to learn civil disobedience when the states aren't acknowledging the scale of the emergency," says Joe Spiegel, mayor of Kingersheim, who provides the venue for the camp, as well as for concerts and other presentations.

- 'Dead weight' -

Some skills are more difficult to master than others. One training course involves how to deal with the police when they intervene, which requires a certain amount of role-playing.

"You learn not to struggle but not to cooperate either when you're being moved," trainer Nicolas Rangeon explains. Participants are taught to go limp, obliging the police to shift their dead weight while not actually offering any active resistance.

It is easier said than done, says Rangeon. "It's not easy when you're under stress to relax completely."

The would-be activists are also encouraged to think carefully about the level of danger they are prepared to risk: not just their physical safely, but the legal implications of what they are doing -- how far they are prepared to go.

Zoe Lavocat, spokeswoman for Alternatiba-ANV-COP21, one of the other organisations involved in the training, explains that several of their activists have been arrested during an ongoing campaign of direct action.

It involves taking down the portrait of President Emmanuel Macron that hangs in city halls across France to protest what they say is his lack of action against climate change.

The climax of the camp will be a simulated action when the trainee activists will take part in an act of mass civil disobedience. They will role-play not just the activists but police and journalists covering the event.

Christine does not see herself in the frontline of the action.

"But my limits are changing," she said. "The things I was doing at the beginning are no longer enough."


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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