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How global warming is having an impact
Paris (AFP) Nov 29, 2009 From cautiously advising that man-made, heat-trapping carbon gases would disrupt Earth's climate system, mainstream scientists are increasingly convinced that the first signs of change are already here. Following are the main indicators, reported in the scientific press over past three years: RISING SEAS: Sea levels have risen in tandem with global warming, according to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8mm (0.07 inches) per year, but accelerated from 1991 to 3.1mm (0.12 inches) per year. The IPCC estimated sea levels would rise 18-59 centimetres (7.2-23.2 inches) by 2100. But added runoff from melting land ice is accelerating. According to Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the global sea level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected. If emissions are not curbed, "it may well exceed one metre (3.25 feet)." SHRINKING GLACIERS: Mountain glaciers and snow cover in both hemispheres have widely retreated in the past few decades. One of the most closely-observed sites, the Cook glacier on the southern Indian Ocean island of Kerguelen, has shrunk by a fifth in 40 years. Around 1.3 billion people depend on the water that flows down from Himalayan glaciers, which in some places are falling back at up to 70 metres (230 feet) per year. The snows capping Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, could vanish entirely in 20 years, US experts reported this month. SHIFTING SEASONS: Some species of birds and fish are shifting habitat in response to warmer temperatures. The range of 105 bird species in France moved north, on average, 91 kilometres (56.5 miles) from 1989 to 2006. Average temperatures, however, shifted northward 273 kilometres (170 miles) over the same period, nearly three times farther. Twenty-one out of 36 species of fish in the North Sea migrated northwards between 1962 and 2001 in search of cooler waters. Anecdotal evidence from commercial fishermen says once-exotic species of fish from warmer latitudes now inhabit southern British waters. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: The acidity of the seas is rising as oceans absorb more carbon dioxide (CO2), with an impact on coral and micro-organisms, marine biologists say. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the protective calcium shell of amoeba-like organisms living in the Southern Ocean called foraminifera, a vital link in the food chain, has fallen in weight by a third. "Within decades," acidification could severely affect biodiversity and fisheries, 150 marine scientists jointly warned last January. ARCTIC ICE: The Greenland ice sheet has lost 1,500 billion tonnes of ice since 2000, contributing 0.75 mm (0.03 inch) annually to sea levels, according to a study published this month. In 2009, the Arctic summer sea ice pack thawed to its third smallest size on record, confirming a shrinkage trend seen over the past 30 years. Some experts believe the Arctic ice cap will disappear completely in summer months within 20 to 30 years. ANTARCTIC WARMING: The Antarctic peninsula has warmed by 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) in the last 50 years, around six times the global average. In the past 20 years, Antarctica has lost seven ice shelves -- huge floating ledges of ice, attached to the shore, that are fed by glaciers. PERMAFROST RETREAT: Emissions of the potent greenhouse gas methane were found to be soaring at sites investigated in 2006 by University of Alaska scientists at lakes in northern Siberia. The reason is thawing of the permafrost, causing the warmed soil to release gas that had been stored for thousands of years. Billions of tonnes of methane, which comes from natural sources such as decomposing vegetation and marshland, are stored in the frozen lands of Siberia, Canada and Alaska. CHANGED PRECIPITATION: Patterns of rainfall or snowfall increased "significantly" from 1900-2005 in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia but declined in the Sahel, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia, says the IPCC. "Globally, the area affected by drought has likely increased since the 1970s," it adds. STORMS: A mooted link between climate change and extreme events has little scientific consensus. A 2008 study by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College London found that warmer seas accounted for 40 percent of a large increase (from six a year to eight a year) in the number of Atlantic hurricanes from 1996-2005. Other scientists say it is hard to say whether a drought, flood or cyclone is part of the longer trend which is climate change or simply just a one-off event, or series of them. SOURCES: IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007); Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Center (Australia); Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK); Nature; Science; Nature Geoscience; Laboratory for Studying Geophysics and Space Oceanography (France); French National Museum of Natural History; Pen Hadow Arctic expedition; US National Snow and Ice Data Center; British Antarctic Survey (BAS); University of Alaska at Fairbanks.
earlier related report At a press conference, Sarkozy praised US President Barack Obama's "courage" for setting goals that would reduce US carbon emissions by 17 percent by 2020, while also offering positive words for China's proposed moves to reduce carbon emissions. "The latest statements by Barack Obama and China's leaders are extremely encouraging in making Copenhagen a success," said Sarkozy, who is attending the meeting because France's overseas department of French Guiana is in the region. The other governments in attendance were Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru, Venezuela and Surinam, all nations that straddle the ecologically-imperiled Amazon river basin. The meeting was called by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to draw up a "common stance" on saving the Amazon jungle. Officials said the meeting aims to adopt tough measures to combat global warming and preserve rainforests, ahead of the December 7-18 climate change conference in the Danish capital Copenhagen. "We are determined to protect the Amazon and use its resources in a sustainable way," participant nations said in a final declaration Thursday as the meeting concluded. Beijing has vowed to cut carbon intensity, measured per unit of GDP, by 40-to-45 percent from 2005 levels within a decade, putting its first-ever emissions targets on the table. The new proposals by the world's two biggest carbon emitters for curbing pollution may have breathed life into UN climate talks, but fall short of what scientists say is needed to avert serious global warming. And the impact of Thursday's Amazon meeting was thrown into doubt by the notable absence of two of the region's big hitters -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his Colombian counterpart Alvaro Uribe, at loggerheads over an agreement granting US access to Colombian military bases. Beyond Lula and Sarkozy, the only other head of state was Guyana President Bharrat Jagdeo, with other countries dispatching senior officials to what had been billed as a leaders summit. The centerpiece of the meeting was a Brazilian proposal to fight rampant deforestation throughout the Amazon basin with financial help from rich nations. "Let no gringo (foreigner) ask us to let an Amazonian starve to death under a tree," Lula said in a speech before the countries met in the planet's largest rainforest. "We want to preserve (the forest), but they (other countries) have to pay for that preservation." Lula's chief adviser Marco Aurelio Garcia explained that Brazil was seeking an agreement from Amazon basin countries "because in Europe, everyone thinks the Amazon is a zoo, a botanical garden and does not realize that it is more complex, there are 30 million people living here." Greenpeace's Amazon official Paulo Adario told AFP that the Lula-Sarkozy alliance was significant "because France has an important leadership role in the European Union and Brazil is also showing growing leadership on the international stage." The two leaders met two weeks ago in Paris to plan for the summit. The clearing of wide swathes of jungle for farming and livestock, especially in Brazil, is reducing the planet's capacity to absorb greenhouse gases -- chiefly carbon dioxide -- that contribute largely to global warming and climate change, Greenpeace warned ahead of the summit. As the fourth-largest greenhouse gas producer, Brazil has promised to cut its CO2 emissions by 36-39 percent by 2020. Half that effort will come from reducing deforestation in the Amazon jungle by 80 percent. Brazil this year has managed to curb deforestation to its lowest level in 20 years, but 7,000 square kilometers (2,700 square miles) of rainforest still disappeared. Unusually, non-Commonwealth leaders Sarkozy, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Danish Prime Minister Lars Loekke Rasmussen are to address a Commonwealth summit Friday as part of an effort to influence the Copenhagen climate talks. The 192-nation talks backed by the United Nations aim to craft a post-2012 pact for curbing the heat-trapping gases that drive global warming. Share This Article With Planet Earth
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Predictions for climate change this century Paris (AFP) Nov 29, 2009 Following is a summary of expert opinion of potential impacts from climate change by the end of the century. The source is the Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007 by the UN's Nobel-winning scientists, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The magnitude of impacts will mainly depend on the level of warming, which the panel predicted would be in a range of 1.8-4.0 ... read more |
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