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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate change: Low-hanging fruit ripe for the picking
By Marlowe HOOD
Paris (AFP) Nov 3, 2016


Highlights of the climate pact entering into force on Nov 4
Paris (AFP) Nov 3, 2016 - On December 12, 2015, 195 countries gathered in the French capital concluded the world's first universal climate treaty, the Paris Agreement, aimed at preventing worst-case-scenario global warming levels.

The pact crossed the ratification threshold on October 5 this year, in record time, when the European Union, as a party to the agreement, and seven of its member states officially signed off on it.

This rounded off the required participation of 55 parties responsible for 55 percent of greenhouse gas emissions for the pact to enter into force.

These are the key points in the Paris Agreement:

- The goal -

Nations agreed to hold global warming to "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels, and to strive for 1.5 C (2.7 F).

The lower goal was a demand of poor countries and island states at high risk of climate change effects such as sea-level rise and drought.

But experts say even 2 C will be a tough task, requiring much deeper cuts to planet-warming emissions from burning coal, oil and gas.

Scientists warn that on current rates, we are headed for a 4 C-warmer world, or about 3 C if countries actually meet self-determined targets for cutting carbon.

- Getting there -

The world will aim for emissions to peak "as soon as possible", with "rapid reductions" thereafter.

Countries submitted non-binding carbon-cutting goals to bolster the agreement.

There are no binding deadlines or goals as there were in the agreement's predecessor -- the Kyoto Protocol -- whose restrictions applied only to developed nations.

By the second half of this century, says the Paris Agreement, there must be a balance between emissions from human activities such as energy production and farming, and the amount that can be captured by carbon-absorbing "sinks" such as forests or storage technology.

- Burden-sharing -

Developed countries, which have polluted for longer, must take the lead with absolute emissions cuts.

Developing nations which still need to burn coal and oil to power growing populations and economies, are encouraged to "continue enhancing" their efforts and "move over time" towards cuts.

- Tracking progress -

In 2018, and every five years thereafter, countries will take stock of the overall impact of what they are doing to rein in global warming, according to the text.

In 2020, countries come up against the first deadline for updating their carbon-curbing pledges.

Some set targets for 2025, others for 2030. Both categories will be updated five-yearly.

- Finance -

Rich countries "shall provide" funding to help developing countries make the costly shift to green energy and shore up their defences against climate change impacts.

Donor nations must report every two years on their finance levels -- current and intended.

Not included in the agreement itself, but in a non-binding "decision" that accompanies it, reference is made to the $100 billion (90 billion euros) a year that rich countries had pledged to muster by 2020 as "a floor", which means it can only go up.

The amount must be updated by 2025.

Developed countries, in a report published last month, said they were confident of reaching the 2020 target.

Pledges made in 2015 alone would boost public finance (excluding private money) to $67 billion in 2020, they said. Using this cash to "mobilise" private finance, the total could come to between $77 billion and $133 billion.

Earth is hurtling deep into the red zone of dangerous global warming, but experts say there are some low cost, effective options for putting on the brakes.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, UN members pledged to cap rising temperatures at less than two degrees Celsius (2.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial era levels.

The big culprit is CO2, the byproduct of fossil fuels that provide the backbone of today's energy supply.

But addressing indirect CO2 emissions -- and warming sources that are not from CO2 -- offer complementary ways of slowing the temperature rise.

"The overarching objective is crystal clear: we need to cut CO2 emissions, and we need to do it as quickly as possible," said Rachel Cleetus at the Washington-based advocacy group, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).

Here are some of the main options:

- HFCs -

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are the poster child of potential "low-hanging fruit" in the carbon cleanup.

These are gases used in air conditioning and refrigeration -- invented, ironically, to replace other gases that had ripped a hole in the ozone layer. And they are viciously effective at trapping solar heat -- one type of HFC is more than 15,000 times more efficient than CO2 in this regard.

An amendment to the 1987 Montreal Protocol signed by nearly 200 countries last month assures the phase out of HFCs by mid-century, avoiding up to a 0.5C (0.9F) of global warming by 2100.

- Black carbon -

Black carbon -- more commonly known as soot -- consists of dark particles cast off by the inefficient burning of diesel fuel, wood and other biomass such as dung.

Like CO2, soot contributes to warming in the atmosphere.

But it causes far more damage by settling on snow at high altitude and in the Arctic, regions warming twice as fast as the global average.

Pristine snow reflect more than 80 percent of solar radiation back into space. But when blanketed by soot, it absorb heat instead.

Implementing known solutions "could reduce soot by 70 to 80 percent," said Drew Shindell, a professor at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina.

- Methane leaks -

The second biggest contributor to global warming after CO2 -- methane -- comes mainly from oil and gas production leakage, livestock, and rice paddies.

Global emissions of methane have been rising sharply since 2007, and may be twice as high as previously thought, according to an assessment published last month in Nature.

A large slice of that increase comes from the booming shale gas industry in the United States, said Stefan Schwietzke, a scientist at the UN National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and lead author of the study.

The good news, he told AFP, is that this jump also means greater "potential to reduce climate forcing from this specific source is also greater."

"We have calculated that -- if you put into place all the existing, proven methods to reduce methane and soot -- you could slow the rate of global warming over the next three decades by about half-a-degree Celsius," Shindell noted.

- Agriculture -

Global livestock -- mainly cows and sheep, both gas-passing ruminants -- is probably a larger source of methane than the fossil fuel industry, according to Doug Boucher, a scientist at the UCS.

"There are some technical ways of reducing methane, such as improving feed for cattle," he told AFP. "But the real potential comes from shifting diets away from high-emission foods, especially beef."

Even switching from beef to chicken or pork would have a big impact, reducing emissions by almost the same amount as if all beef-eaters become vegetarians.

But weaning North and South Americans -- by far the biggest consumers of beef -- from hamburgers and T-bone steaks is easier said than done.

"There is a very strong resistance, culturally," Boucher said. "It is considered food-policing."

Another simple target is food waste.

About a third of all food produced in the world is lost during production or consumption, according to the UN, accounting for about eight percent of greenhouse gas emissions.

- Plant trees -

A different approach to fighting climate change is to enhance the Earth's natural capacity to soak up carbon, a job done mainly by oceans and forests.

Scientists at Woods Hole Research Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts, for example, are mapping the world's land area -- excluding active agricultural and urban landscapes -- that humans have cleared of forests over the centuries.

"We calculate that on the order of 100 to 200 billion tonnes of carbon could be put back onto land," scientist Richard Houghton told AFP, cautioning that the study is not yet complete.

That is roughly equivalent to a dozen years of global CO2 emissions.


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