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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate correction: when scientists get it wrong
By Patrick GALEY
Paris (AFP) Nov 23, 2018

Oceans heating faster than previously thought: study
Paris (AFP) Nov 23, 2018 - The world's oceans have absorbed more heat than previously thought over the last quarter of a century, scientists said Thursday, leaving Earth more sensitive still to the effects of climate change.

Oceans cover more than two thirds of the planet's surface and play a vital role in sustaining life on Earth.

According to their most recent assessment this month, scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) say the world's oceans have absorbed 90 percent of the temperature rise caused by man-made carbon emissions.

But new research published in the journal Nature used a novel method of measuring ocean temperature.

It found that for each of the last 25 years, oceans may have absorbed heat energy equivalent to as much as 150 times the amount of electricity mankind produces annually.

That is between 10-70 percent higher than previous studies showed.

Whereas those studies relied on tallying the excess heat produced by known man-made greenhouse gas emissions, a team of US-based scientists focused on two gases found naturally in the atmosphere: oxygen and carbon dioxide.

Both gases are soluble in water, but the rate at which water absorbs them decreases as it warms.

By measuring atmospheric oxygen and CO2 for each year, scientists were able to estimate how much heat oceans had absorbed on a global scale.

The authors initially calculated that oceans had warmed 60 percent more than previously thought.

However, after some controversy, they acknowledged mistakes in the margin-of-error calculations, and subsequently settled on a range of 10-70 percent.

"Our error margins are too big now to really weigh in on the precise amount of warming that's going on in the ocean," said author Ralph Keeling, of the UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography, after being made aware of the error.

"We really muffed the error margins," he told the San Diego Tribune.

The IPCC warns that drastic measures need taking in order to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius by the end of the century but the world produced a record amount of carbon emissions in 2017.

On November 1, AFP joined news outlets around the world in covering the release of a major academic paper warning that our oceans were warming dramatically quicker than previously thought.

The study was undertaken by some of the world's most pre-eminent climate scientists, using state-of-the-art modelling systems reviewed by their peers, and appeared in one of the most prestigious academic journals.

There was just one problem: it was wrong.

Published in Nature, the paper by researchers from the University of California San Diego and Princeton found that ocean temperatures had warmed 60 percent more than current estimates.

They concluded, with no small sense of alarm, that even the most ambitious emissions cuts laid out in the global plan to prevent climate disaster would need to be slashed again by another 25 percent.

Soon after publication, an independent climate scientist -- one who has repeatedly voiced scepticism of the consensus that human behaviour is causing global warming -- spotted an error in the Nature paper's maths.

"After correction, the... results do not suggest a larger increase in ocean heat content than previously thought," Nicolas Lewis wrote on his Climate Science blog.

"Just a few hours of analysis and calculations was sufficient to uncover apparently serious (but surely inadvertent) errors in the underlying calculations.

"It is very important that the media outlets that unquestioningly trumpeted the paper's findings now correct the record too. But perhaps that is too much to hope for," he added.

With the rectified calculation, the authors quickly realised they had made a mistake.

The new results had a far larger range of possibilities in ocean temperature increases -- between 10 and 70 percent: still warmer, but rendering the study vague even for the sometimes unknowable science of climate modelling.

"We quickly realised that our calculations incorrectly treated systematic errors in the O2 measurements as if they were random errors in the error propagation," author Ralph Keeling wrote on climatehome.org.

"We really muffed the error margins," he told the San Diego Tribune.

- 'Climate hoax' -

The correction prompted some climate deniers to wheel out the conspiracy theory that manmade global warming is made up.

Some Twitter users suggested the study was funded by the Democrats, that human-induced planetary warming was invented by former presidential hopeful Al Gore so he could buy a house, and that decades of evidence-based research into the phenomenon constituted "pseudoscience".

But scientists rallied round the authors, pointing out that the process surrounding the Nature paper's publication and correction was, really, how scientific research is supposed to work.

"Science is a human endeavour and it's therefore imperfect. What's important is that results are scrutinised and replicated by others so that we can assess what is robust and what isn't," Gavin A. Schmidt, director at the Goddard Institute for Space Sciences at NASA, told AFP.

"Current climate change has been looked at by thousands of scientists (and other interested people) and our understanding of it is pretty solid," he said.

AFP has since corrected its coverage of the study so its updated findings are on the record for future stories on warming oceans.

Peter Frumhoff, chief climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the ocean study correction was "a beautiful thing".

"The rapid, transparent acknowledgement and correction of inadvertent errors in scientific papers... is at the heart of what separates science from dogma," he told AFP.

"It underscores our confidence in the robustness of consensus scientific findings, based on thousands of independent studies, regarding human-caused climate change."


Related Links
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Greenhouse gas levels in atmosphere hit new high: UN
Geneva (AFP) Nov 22, 2018
The levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the main driver of climate change, have hit a new record high, the UN said Thursday, warning that the time to act was running out. Ahead of the COP 24 climate summit in Poland next month, top United Nations officials are again trying to raise the pressure on governments to meet the pledge of limiting warming to the less than two degrees Celsius, enshrined in the 2015 Paris accord. "Without rapid cuts in CO2 and other greenhouse gases, climate cha ... read more

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