Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Earth Science News .




CLIMATE SCIENCE
Climate models disagree on why temperature 'wiggles' occur
by Staff Writers
Durham NC (SPX) Jan 28, 2015


File image.

A new Duke University-led study finds that most climate models likely underestimate the degree of decade-to-decade variability occurring in mean surface temperatures as Earth's atmosphere warms. The models also provide inconsistent explanations of why this variability occurs in the first place.

These discrepancies may undermine the models' reliability for projecting the short-term pace as well as the extent of future warming, the study's authors warn. As such, we shouldn't over-interpret recent temperature trends.

"The inconsistencies we found among the models are a reality check showing we may not know as much as we thought we did," said lead author Patrick T. Brown, a Ph.D. student in climatology at Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment.

"This doesn't mean greenhouse gases aren't causing Earth's atmosphere to warm up in the long run," Brown emphasized.

"It just means the road to a warmer world may be bumpier and less predictable, with more decade-to-decade temperature wiggles than expected. If you're worried about climate change in 2100, don't over-interpret short-term trends. Don't assume that the reduced rate of global warming over the last 10 years foreshadows what the climate will be like in 50 or 100 years."

Brown and his colleagues published their findings this month in the peer-reviewed Journal of Geophysical Research.

To conduct their study, they analyzed 34 climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth and most recent assessment report, finalized last November.

The analysis found good consistency among the 34 models explaining the causes of year-to-year temperature wiggles, Brown noted. The inconsistencies existed only in terms of the model's ability to explain decade-to-decade variability, such as why global mean surface temperatures warmed quickly during the 1980s and 1990s, but have remained relatively stable since then.

"When you look at the 34 models used in the IPCC report, many give different answers about what is causing this decade-to-decade variability," he said. "Some models point to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as the cause. Other models point to other causes. It's hard to know which is right and which is wrong."

Hopefully, as the models become more sophisticated, they will coalesce around one answer, Brown said.


Thanks for being here;
We need your help. The SpaceDaily news network continues to grow but revenues have never been harder to maintain.

With the rise of Ad Blockers, and Facebook - our traditional revenue sources via quality network advertising continues to decline. And unlike so many other news sites, we don't have a paywall - with those annoying usernames and passwords.

Our news coverage takes time and effort to publish 365 days a year.

If you find our news sites informative and useful then please consider becoming a regular supporter or for now make a one off contribution.
SpaceDaily Contributor
$5 Billed Once


credit card or paypal
SpaceDaily Monthly Supporter
$5 Billed Monthly


paypal only


.


Related Links
Duke University
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle




Memory Foam Mattress Review
Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News





CLIMATE SCIENCE
California aims to slash greenhouse gas emissions through 2030
Berkeley CA (SPX) Jan 26, 2015
A new model of the impact of California's existing and proposed policies on its greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals suggests that the state is on track to meet 2020 goals, and could achieve greater emission reductions by 2030, but the state will need to do more to reach its 2050 climate goals. "The big news here is that not only will California meet its 2020 reduction goals under AB 32, b ... read more


CLIMATE SCIENCE
Probe after 11 die in NATO training jet crash in Spain

Hackers target Malaysia Airlines, threaten data dump

Shanghai stampede showed 'critical neglect': mayor

New York defends storm shutdown

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Scientists invent 3-D printer 'teleporter'

Vanguard Delivers Advanced EHF Bus Structure Assembly

Planetary Society announces test flight for LightSail

Integral manoeuvres for the future

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Katherine, the tagged great white shark, returns to Florida

From Tar Sands to Ring of Fire - Canada's watersheds

Russian Scientists Develop 'Underwater Wi-Fi' to Control Sea Robots

Small drop in sea level had big impact on southern Great Barrier Reef

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Arctic ice cap slides into the ocean

Murkowski: Obama's Alaska move an act of war

Scientists find translucent fish living under Antarctic ice shelf

Obama recommends extended wilderness zone in Alaska

CLIMATE SCIENCE
With pollinator declines, millions at risk of malnutrition

Fish catch break on world stage at global conference

When it comes to variations in crop yield, climate has a big say

Scientists develop strategy to contain GMOs to the lab

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Going with the flow

Death toll in Mozambique floods rises to 117

Fossils that survived volcano give clues to Canary Islands history

Madagascar tropical storm claims 46 lives

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Defence Minister Lungu wins Zambia's disputed presidential race

African Union agrees 'substantive' transport deal with China

Chinese become targets in DR Congo anti-government riots

Spain negotiates permanent US Marines Africa force

CLIMATE SCIENCE
Scientists map brains of the blind to solve mysteries of specialization

Early human ancestors used their hands like modern humans

Scientists extend telomeres to slow cell aging

A mother's baby talk isn't easier to understand




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. All websites are published in Australia and are solely subject to Australian law and governed by Fair Use principals for news reporting and research purposes. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA news reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement, agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement All images and articles appearing on Space Media Network have been edited or digitally altered in some way. Any requests to remove copyright material will be acted upon in a timely and appropriate manner. Any attempt to extort money from Space Media Network will be ignored and reported to Australian Law Enforcement Agencies as a potential case of financial fraud involving the use of a telephonic carriage device or postal service.