With negotiators laboring to unblock a complex, interlinked two-track process, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva meanwhile predicted the 12-day meeting "won't result in anything."

"No big leader is going, only environment ministers at best. We don't even know if foreign ministers are going. So there won't be any progress," Lula, who himself decided not to travel to Mexico, told reporters in Brasilia.

Green groups reacted with concern after Japan on Monday spelt out its opposition to renewing pledges under the Kyoto Protocol, the cornerstone UN pact on global warming.

It said it did not plan to renew its carbon-cutting pledges when Kyoto's current roster of promises expire at the end of 2012.

In an argument it has repeated over nearly a year, Japan says Kyoto's targeted carbon constraints are unfair and ineffective in the present arrangements for tackling global warming.

They only apply to rich countries, but not the United States, which abandoned the treaty in 2001, nor to China, the world's No. 1 polluter, which is a developing country. As a result, only 30 percent of planet-wide emissions of greenhouse gases are covered.

"With this position, Japan isolates itself from the rest of the world. Even worse, this step undermines the ongoing talks and is a serious threat to the progress needed here in Cancun," said Yuri Onodera of Friends of the Earth Japan.

WWF's Maskako Konishi said "Japan's hardline rejection... is damaging for the ongoing negotiations... the Japanese negotiators are effectively isolating Japan globally."

The UN talks in Cancun are essentially two tracks, with linkages.

One track gathers all 194 parties under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including the United States, on worldwide action beyond 2012.

The other gathers the 193 parties to the Kyoto Protocol -- everyone but the United States.

Developing countries have said in essence they will commit to a deal in the first track provided there is a deal in the second track for renewing the Protocol.

As a result, if Japan and other rich countries bale out of Kyoto, that could block a deal in the worldwide arena.

"It's clear we're strongly disappointed," Greenpeace's Wendel Trio told AFP.

"At the same time, we do see that the EU is really committed to continuing a second period and that position is not dependent on Japan. I still think there is a number of countries, including Australia, New Zealand and Russia, that want to continue."

UN climate chief Christiana Figueres said Japan's statement was "not new" and underscored the long and complex process of negotiations.

"The position of Japan in respect with the KP has been on the table for 11 months. It should not take anybody by surprise," she told reporters.

"It is clear that parties are going to have to compromise, that they are going to have to flexible, that they are going to have to understand each other's position and situation, and try to find where the median ground may lie," Figueres said.

Asked to react to Lula's predictions of a failure, Figueres said the Cancun meeting had not been designed to be "a summit," while US chief delegate Jonathan Pershing said, "I personally think that the process will reach results. I think that there will be conclusions coming out."

Scientists say unbridled burning of fossil fuels has brought concentrations of carbon dioxide, a colourless, odourless and tasteless "greenhouse" gas, to record concentrations.

Without urgent action to stem these emissions, the world is on track for worsening drought, floods, storms and rising seas, spelling a threat for hundreds of millions of people, they warn.

earlier related report
Stakes are high for Philippines in Cancun
Manila, Philippines (UPI) Nov 30, 2010 - The Philippines will push for climate change adaption financing at the Cancun, Mexico, meeting on climate change, yet it is not optimistic about the outcome of the talks, officials said.

Mary Ann Lucille Sering, vice chairwoman of the country's Climate Change Commission, said the Philippines wants clarification on the $30 billion pledged last year at the Copenhagen, Denmark, conference by developed countries as "fast-start" climate aid to the developing world.

"The accord clearly stated that it's for small islands and least developed countries, which effectively takes out the Philippines from the prioritization," she said ahead of the Cancun talks, Manila's BusinessWorld newspaper reports. "That was one of our criticisms of the accord. That's why we are going through consultations."

Sering said the Philippines also wants "direct access" to the long-term commitment of $100 billion in funding per year by 2020 pledged in Copenhagen.

Sering is leading her country's delegation of 51 to Cancun just a week after she was sworn into her position. She replaced Heherson T. Alvarez to resolve what was considered a festering leadership crisis in the Philippines' climate commission.

The Philippines accounts for only 0.27 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, the World Bank says.

But Manila, with a population of about 11 million, is at risk of extreme flooding in the next 40 years mainly because of the effects of climate change, says a report released last month by the Asian Development Bank, the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the World Bank.

The report warns that even if the government implements proposed flood infrastructure plans, the scope of areas in Metro Manila that could be flooded by 2050 could increase by 42 percent.

"The stakes are high for us, because without an international agreement on mitigation and adaptation, the Philippines is left on its own to fight the serious challenge of climate change," said Antonio G.M. La Vina, an environmental lawyer based at Manila University who is part of Sering's delegation to Cancun.

While La Vina said a binding agreement on emissions cuts was not likely to come out of Cancun, he was optimistic delegates would agree on a framework for climate change adaptation to developing countries, financing for agriculture and REDD-Plus financing (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries).

For his part, Philippine President Benigno Aquino, in declaring Global Warming and Climate Change Consciousness Week on Sunday, urged Filipinos to adjust their lifestyles to prevent further damage to the environment.

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