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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Dismal China factory numbers add to global gloom
By Kelly OLSEN
Beijing (AFP) Sept 1, 2015


Emerging economies must be vigilant over China slowdown: IMF chief
Jakarta (AFP) Sept 1 - The International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde warned Tuesday greater resilience would be needed from the world's emerging economies to handle China's slowdown, warning the road ahead could be "somewhat bumpy".

The IMF chief also cautioned that global growth this year would be "likely weaker" than previously anticipated, less than two months after the IMF cut its global forecast for 2015 to 3.3 percent.

Emerging markets from Indonesia to Brazil have been bruised by the slowdown in the world's second largest economy.

A slump in Chinese demand for commodities -- exports that many emerging economies rely on heavily -- has hammered these up-and-coming economies and their currencies, while a recent rout on Chinese stock markets and the shock devaluation of the yuan has only added to their woes.

The IMF still expects Asia to lead global growth, but Lagarde admitted the pace was slower than expected and could further lag, highlighting the need for "ever greater resilience".

Speaking in Indonesia, where China's slowdown has contributed heavily to poor economic growth, Lagarde said many emerging economies risked being caught "on the wrong side" of this recent financial market volatility and needed to remain vigilant.

Aside from China's slowdown, emerging economies faced weaker capital inflows, higher interest rates and financial upheaval if the US Federal Reserve lifts interest rates this year, the IMF chief told an audience at the University of Indonesia

Lagarde said growth in China wasn't slowing sharply and had been expected, but conceded the country's transition to a more market-based economy was "complex and could well be somewhat bumpy".

"Other emerging economies, including Indonesia, need to be vigilant to handle potential spillovers from China's slowdown and tightening of global financial conditions," she added.

Oil dives on poor China factory data
New York (AFP) Sept 1, 2015 - World oil prices tumbled Tuesday as poor manufacturing data in China, the world's largest energy consumer, hammered the outlook for demand and shook market confidence.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for October delivery lost $3.79, or 7.7 percent, closing at $45.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The sell-off snapped a strong three-day WTI rally that had pushed the futures contract up more than 27 percent, rebounding from six and a half year lows.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for October closed at $49.56 a barrel, down $4.59, or 8.5 percent, from Monday's settlement.

China's economic woes once again were hitting markets worldwide. Official data released earlier in the day suggested the country's key manufacturing sector stalled in August. The purchasing managers index (PMI) slumped to a three-year low of 49.7 in August from 50.0 in July. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

US financial giant Citigroup said that China was driving prices of commodities, including oil, lower "as never before."

"We expect China to continue to exert downward pressure on commodity prices in the coming months," it said.

And manufacturing growth appeared to be stalling in the powerhouse United States. The Institute for Supply Management's PMI slid closer to contraction in August, falling to 51.1, the year's low, from 52.7 in July.

Analysts said the global crude oversupply remains a drag on prices, despite the sharp rebound in the past three days.

"Even though US production has started to fall, June production was still up 7.1 percent over a year ago," said Nicholas Teo, market analyst at CMC Markets.

Further signs of slowing in the world's second-biggest economy sent shudders through global markets Tuesday, adding to the worldwide sense of crisis over China's financial management.

The Chinese government's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures activity in the country's vast manufacturing sector, fell to 49.7 in August, representing a contraction in factory activity.

It was the lowest level for the key indicator in three years, and could represent deeper deterioration: Analysts say official figures in China frequently underplay the severity of the situation.

The data, which come after global markets have been rocked by increasing fears over the health of the Chinese economy, highlight the task Beijing faces as it battles to keep a lid on a growing sense of crisis.

They also cast further doubt on the ability of the communist leadership to manage China's adjustment from the high-growth, investment-led model of the last three decades, towards a more sustainable approach.

The numbers delivered a fresh punch to global markets after reeling for a week on worries over the Chinese economy.

Tokyo tumbled 3.84 percent, London's FTSE 100 index plunged 3.03 percent, the CAC 40 in Paris dropped 2.40 percent and Frankfurt's DAX 30 fell 2.38 percent.

On Wall Street, key indices registered similar losses, with the S&P 500 off 2.33 percent in midday trade.

China's economy has been steadily slowing since the double-digit expansions of years past, the last of which came in 2010.

It grew 7.4 percent in 2014, its weakest since 1990, but has slowed further this year, to 7.0 percent for each of the first two quarters.

- Blue skies but grey outlook -

The Chinese economy -- which accounts for one dollar in every eight of global GDP -- has been a lone bright spot since a global slowdown began in 2008.

Its strength has largely been fuelled by massive state spending and huge monetary stimulus, but analysts agree it needs to switch more towards consumer spending.

Investors worry that a failure to manage that re-tooling properly could provide a nasty bump for the Chinese economy -- and much of the rest of the world.

But recent months have offered little comfort.

China's central bank last week cut its benchmark interest rates for the fifth time since November and also further reduced the amount of cash banks must keep on hand.

Since peaking on June 12, Shanghai stocks have plunged nearly 40 percent, prompting broad government interventions to try to shore up domestic exchanges.

In the latest move, Beijing late Monday urged listed companies to merge and restructure, pay cash dividends, and buy back their own shares -- which should see prices rise -- in an effort to encourage investors to hold stock for the long term.

The central People's Bank of China has pumped 290 billion yuan ($45.5 billion) into the money market over the past two days, according to a statement, to shore up confidence.

The statistics bureau said separately on Tuesday that efforts to control pollution in Beijing, Tianjin and neighbouring Hebei province had weighed on factory activity.

That has been particularly marked over recent weeks around Beijing, where authorities have ordered heavy-polluting plants to shutter in a bid to help clear the air in the Chinese capital ahead of a military parade on Thursday.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, noted that similar dips were recorded ahead of other important events in the Chinese capital, such as the 2008 Olympics, when "efforts were made to ensure blue skies".

But as disruption from the pollution measures fades and credit growth and fiscal spending pick up "a sustained rebound in economic activity over the coming quarters seems likely", he wrote.

In one positive sign however, a private survey released Tuesday showed signs of life in China's long-suffering property market, an important sector for the economy.

New house prices recorded their first year-on-year rise in 11 months in August, the China Index Academy said, as government monetary easing policies boosted demand.

However, ANZ economists Liu Li-Gang and Louis Lam said in a research note that despite the central bank's monetary easing actions more stimulus measures were needed, calling for "proactive fiscal policy" and "more financial liberalisation".

China new home prices in first annual rise for 11 months: survey
Beijing (AFP) Sept 1, 2015 - New house prices in China rose in August from a year ago for the first time in 11 months, a survey showed Tuesday, as government monetary easing policies boosted demand.

The average cost of a new home in the country's 100 major cities rose 0.15 percent year-on-year to 10,787 yuan ($1,692) per square metre last month, snapping 10 straight months of decline, the China Index Academy (CIA) said in a report.

On a month-on-month basis, new home prices increased 0.95 percent, accelerating from a rise of 0.54 percent in July and the fourth consecutive month of rising prices, according to CIA.

Prices fell for eight months in a row to December last year.

"The property market continued to recover on the back of a series of policy loosenings this year," CIA said in the statement.

The central People's Bank of China (PBoC) has cut benchmark interest rates five times since November, the latest last week, in a bid to shore up the world's number two economy, which is suffering a slowdown in growth.

It also announced it would reduce the amount of money banks are required to keep in reserves -- the fourth such move this year -- in a bid to encourage lending.

"The 'double cuts' will further stimulate consumers' buying impetus," CIA said.

"With active coordination by local governments and accelerated new project launches by property developers, we expect both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market to continue to heat up from next month until the end of the year," it said.

But it added that property firms still had substantial inventories to clear in some cities.

"Home prices will continue to be stable," it said.

The government on Tuesday also lowered minimum downpayment levels on some second home purchases to 20 percent, after reducing the requirement nationwide in March.

The March move rolled back a four-year-old policy implemented to rein in soaring prices that were making homes too expensive for many buyers and raising worries over social unrest.

In many cities, minimum downpayment levels for second homes used to be as high as 70 percent.

But continued weakening in growth in the world's second-largest economy has prompted the government to switch tack to support the property sector, a key driver of expansion.

Land sales to developers are also a major source of revenue for cash-strapped local governments.

China's economy expanded 7.4 percent last year, the slowest pace since 1990, and weakened further to 7.0 percent in each of the first two quarters this year.

The average price in China's top 10 cities was 19,962 yuan per square metre last month, up 3.83 percent from a year earlier -- picking up from a 1.30-percent rise in July.


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