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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Donald Trump looms large over future of climate action
By Mari�tte Le Roux
Marrakesh, Morocco (AFP) Nov 19, 2016


Climate science: Bad news gets worse
Marrakesh, Morocco (AFP) Nov 18, 2016 - Diplomats from 197 nations wound down a two-week UN conference Friday which started drafting a blueprint for arresting global warming "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels.

- Record temperatures -

Earth is on track for its third successive year of highest-ever average surface temperatures since records began in 1880.

The first 10 months of the year have been the hottest in modern times.

The average temperature for the year was set to reach 1.2 Celsius (2.16 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-Industrial Revolution levels -- meaning that 16 of the 17 hottest years on record were this century.

For the first time ever, the average temperature in 2015 was a full degree Celsius above the pre-industrial era benchmark used by the UN climate science panel.

In the Arctic, land surface temperatures in 2015 matched the record years of 2007 and 2011, both of which were 2.8 C higher than a century earlier, when records for the region began.

- Greenhouse gases -

The atmospheric concentration of the three most potent greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) -- all hit new highs in 2015, though the rate of emissions has been nearly flat for three years in a row.

Methane levels, according to a new assessment, may be twice as high as previously thought.

For the first time, the concentration of CO2 -- by far the dominant greenhouse gas -- stayed above 400 parts per million (ppm) throughout 2015, as measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory on the island of Hawaii.

CO2 levels are going up by just over two parts per million -- about half a percent -- every year.

Most climate scientists agree that CO2 concentrations must be capped at 450 ppm to have a fighting chance of preventing the global thermometer from rising by more than 2C above the pre-industrial benchmark.

- Arctic Ocean in danger -

High-altitude glaciers declined in surface area in 2015 for the 36th year in a row.

The Greenland ice sheet lost nearly two trillion tonnes of ice mass between 2003 and 2013.

Arctic Sea ice shrank to 4.14 million square kilometres (1.6 million square miles) on September 16 -- the second-lowest after 2012 when it reached 3.39 million km2.

The Arctic Ocean could be entirely ice free in summer as early as 2030.

- Sea levels rising -

Oceans continued to rise in 2015, reaching a level 70 millimetres (2.75 inches) above the 1993 mark. That works out to about 3.3 mm (0.13 inches) per year, though in parts of the Pacific and Indian Oceans it is more than that.

The pace of sea level rise is likely to pick up in coming decades as ice sheets and glaciers shed mass, threatening the homes and livelihoods of tens of millions of people in low-lying areas around the world.

On current trends, greenhouse gas emissions could cause the Antarctic ice sheet to retreat sufficiently by 2100 to lift global oceans by a metre, double previous estimates.

- Extreme events -

Some scientists have calculated that the number of climate-related extreme events -- droughts, forest fires, floods, major storm surges -- have doubled since 1990.

Climate change have boosted the intensity of typhoons battering China, Taiwan, Japan and the Korean Peninsula since 1980 by 12 to 15 percent, according to one recent study.

Natural disasters drive at least 26 million people into poverty each year and cause more than $500 billion (470 billion euros) in lost consumption, according to a World Bank report.

From across the Atlantic, Donald Trump eclipsed a UN conference which fought valiantly in Marrakesh to preserve momentum on curtailing climate change amid fears the mogul will fragment the global effort and starve it of cash.

World leaders, CEOs, negotiators and activists at the two-week meeting, which closed Friday, were clearly unsettled by the pending White House takeover of Trump, who has vowed to withdraw the US from a hard-won global agreement on climate change.

Analysts say a US exit would make it harder to achieve the 196-nation pact's goals to limit planet warming, and likely result in a shortfall of billions of dollars promised to help developing countries fight against climate change and cope with its impacts.

"The biggest impact, I think, is on financing... the US federal government's commitment to continue to finance clean energy," Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists told AFP.

"The thing that people seem to be most concerned about is: will the US fulfil the remaining $2.5 billion of the $3 billion pledge President Obama made to the Green Climate Fund (GCF)?"

The fund supports projects to make the shift away from greenhouse gas-emitting fossil fuels to renewable sources.

Trump, who has described climate change as a "hoax", remained mum for the duration of the conference on whether he will execute his pre-election threats.

Amid the uncertainty, delegates to the 22nd UN climate conference put on a brave face.

Heads of state and cabinet ministers attending a "high-level segment" from Tuesday to Thursday this week reaffirmed their countries' determination to push ahead, with or without Washington.

But no-one could ignore the elephant in the room.

"The process has taken a huge hit following the US election results," said climate activist Mohamed Adow of Christian Aid, which represents the interests of poor countries at the UN negotiations.

"There is a lot of uncertainty about what's going to happen next."

Trump's election has recalled the shock of 2001, when George W Bush refused to ratify the Paris Agreement's predecessor, the Kyoto Protocol.

His action was a major blow to the global effort to rein in planet warming that scientists warn threaten the human way of life.

- Americans the biggest losers -

Washington was instrumental in negotiating the structure and contents of both agreements, striking tough bargains which made for often combative negotiations.

Many fear that after years of trust-building, a US retreat may revive old enmities between rich and developing nations at the UN process, possibly unleashing more withdrawals.

"Certainly, it could embolden some of the least progressive actors," said climate diplomacy expert Liz Gallagher of the E3G think-tank.

A handful of countries, including major emitters India and Saudi Arabia, needed serious convincing to get on board with the Paris Agreement.

Finance for climate aid is a particularly hot-button issue, with developing nations putting pressure on rich countries to ramp up contributions and deliver on what they have promised.

The US provided $2.7 billion in international climate finance in 2014, according to the Washington-based World Resources Institute.

It pledged last year to double finance for developing country adaptation projects -- from $400 million in 2014 -- for shoring up defences against climate change harms.

Of the $3 billion pledged for the GCF, $500 million has been delivered so far.

Washington also pays a big chunk of the operating budget of the UN climate body, under whose umbrella the Paris Agreement was negotiated.

Another concern, analysts say, is the core target enshrined in the Paris Agreement: to halt global warming "well below" two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial era levels.

If the US does not achieve it's own pledge of cutting emissions by 26-28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025, the collective goal will move further out of reach.

"We knew before the election that it was going to take additional actions by the next administration to meet the target," said Meyer.

"It's not very likely in my mind that Mr Trump would take additional actions."

All agree that if Trump acts on his threat, states, cities and businesses in the US and elsewhere will have to pick up the slack.

On Wednesday, more than 360 major companies called in an open letter for a "continuation of low-carbon policies" and investment in a renewable energy economy.

And representatives from the states of Vermont, Washington State and California -- the 7th largest economy in the world -- stressed they were committed to renewables for the long haul.

"As states we are doing the job," said Deborah Markowitz of the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

Many in Marrakesh stressed that market forces, not politics, may be what ultimately guarantees a low-carbon future.

"If in the worst case the United States were to withdraw its leadership, the biggest losers will be the people of the United States," Erik Sondheim, executive director of the UN Environment Programme, told AFP.

"All those new, remarkable fascinating jobs will go to other places."


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CLIMATE SCIENCE
UN climate meeting closes under Trump shadow
Marrakesh, Morocco (AFP) Nov 18, 2016
A UN climate conference dominated by Donald Trump's threats to withdraw from a hard-won pact concludes in Marrakesh Friday amid fears that the goal of curtailing worst-case-scenario global warming may not be achieved without US backing. The first gathering of the UN's climate forum since last year's adoption of the Paris Agreement to curtail disastrous global warming, was tasked with draftin ... read more


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