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Experts Revise Hurricane Forecast Downward To Eight Storms
Miami (AFP) Aug 03, 2007 Eight hurricanes are likely to form in the Atlantic this year, with four expected to reach intense strength, experts said Friday in a downward revision of earlier forecasts. The forecast also said there is a 68 percent chance of an intense hurricane slamming ashore in the United States this year. In all, 15 named storms are expected to form in the Atlantic Basin, according to prominent experts William Gray and Philip Klotzbach, of Colorado State University. Eight of the tropical storms will strengthen into hurricanes, of which four will be intense, meaning they will pack sustained winds of at least 178 kilometers (111 miles) per hour, the forecasters said in a report. In late May the team had predicted 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes. Despite the downward revision, the latest forecasts remain well above the long-term annual average of 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes. "We've lowered our forecast from our May predictions because of slightly less favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic," said Philip Klotzbach who co-authored the report. "Sea surface temperature anomalies have cooled across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks, and there have been several significant dust outbreaks from Africa, signifying a generally stable air mass over the tropical Atlantic," he said. So far, only two tropical storms have formed since the six-month Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and none of them has strengthened into a hurricane. But August and September are usually the most active months of the Atlantic hurricane season. For the month of August, the team expects three named storms, two of which are expected to develop into hurricanes, and of which will be intense. For September, the team predicted five named storms, four hurricanes and two intense hurricanes. A further five named storms, two hurricanes -- one of them intense -- are expected to form in October-November, the researchers said. "We're in an active cycle in the Atlantic basin that is expected to last another 15 to 20 years," said William Gray, one of the reports' authors. But he stressed that the highly active seasons of 2004 and 2005, when a total of 13 major hurricanes, several of them deadly, formed in the Atlantic basin remained an anomaly. Last year, nine storms formed in the Atlantic, including five hurricanes, which did relatively little damage.
Source: Agence France-Presse Community Email This Article Comment On This Article Related Links Bringing Order To A World Of Disasters When the Earth Quakes A world of storm and tempest
Rivers Submerge Villages In South Asian Flood Misery
New Delhi (AFP) Aug 05, 2007The death toll from floods sweeping across India topped 1,100 on Sunday as more people drowned in swollen rivers that have stranded millions with little food or drinking water, officials said. Six people died overnight in Uttar Pradesh, taking the death toll to 125 in the northern state where 2,400 villages have been cut off, a government spokesman said. "Almost all rivers are flowing above the danger mark but what worries us is the discharge of a large amount of water from nearby Nepal," relief department spokesman Shreesh Dubey said in the state capital Lucknow. |
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