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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Fed chairman signals possible QE3
by Moran Zhang, Medill News Service
Washington (UPI) Jul 13, 2011

China credit boom still running strong: Fitch
Beijing (AFP) July 13, 2011 - Ratings agency Fitch on Wednesday warned credit levels in China remained high due to an increase in channels for new financing, one day after Beijing reported a drop in new loans issued by banks.

"The post-crisis credit boom in China is often misportrayed as a brief, isolated event in the first half of 2009," Charlene Chu, head of Fitch's ratings of Chinese banks, said in a statement.

"In reality, the credit boom lasted two solid years and is still running strong as new channels of credit expand."

In 2009, lending nearly doubled to 9.6 trillion yuan due to government efforts to spur economic activity amid the global financial crisis. New loans slowed to 7.95 trillion yuan in 2010, but still exceeded the official target.

Chinese policymakers have been pulling on a variety of levers to rein in lending on fears soaring property prices and inflation -- which hit a three-year high of 6.4 percent in June -- could trigger social unrest.

In a sign their efforts are bearing fruit, China's central bank announced on Tuesday that new loans issued by banks fell nearly 10 percent in the first half of 2011 to 4.17 trillion yuan.

Fitch estimates that the volume of new loans issued by banks in 2011 will reach 8 trillion yuan, but it warns total new financing -- which includes lending by non-bank financial institutions -- could hit 18 trillion yuan.

Many individuals and small firms finance their activities through non-bank institutions, such as pawnbrokers.

Last week, ratings agency Moody's also warned China may have understated the debt burden of local governments by as much as $541.6 billion, adding the proportion of bad loans could be higher than previously forecast.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear Wednesday that further stimulus for the U.S. economy is "an option on the table."

Bernanke told a U.S. House of Representatives committee that recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might re-emerge, which could require additional policy support.

"We don't know where the economy is going to go," Bernanke said in his semiannual report to Congress on the economy and monetary policy. "If we get to a point where the economy recovery is faltering and we are looking at the inflation dropping down toward zero, then we have to look at all the options."

The "weaker-than-expected" economic performance in the first half of this year and the disappointing unemployment number that rose to 9.2 percent in June are evidence that the economy may not have sufficient momentum, he said.

Last month, the Fed cut its forecast for economic growth in 2011 to a range of 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent compared with its previous expectation of a growth rate of 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent.

Bernanke's remarks before the House Financial Services Committee echoed other Fed policy makers' openness to the possibility of another round of stimulus spending.

"A few members noted that, depending on how economic conditions evolve, the committee might have to consider providing additional monetary policy stimulus, especially if economic growth remained too slow to meaningfully reduce the unemployment rate in the medium run," the recently released Fed's June 21-22 policy meeting minutes state.

U.S. financial leaders have twice turned to "quantitative easing" -- known colloquially as "QE" -- a strategy in which the government buys assets from financial institutions with newly created funds in an effort to spur the national economy.

"QE3 might help the financial market, but it wouldn't do much to the economy, but I see it coming," said Adolfo Laurenti, deputy chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc.

Bernanke said that "the jobless rate will decline -- albeit only slowly -- toward its longer-term normal level."

The Fed forecasts that the unemployment rate will drop to 7.8 to 8.2 percent at the end of 2012, and 7.0 to 7.5 percent at the end of 2013. The rate in June was 9.2 percent. It hasn't been as low as 7.8 percent since January 2009, when it was 7.6 percent.

"Confidence is crucial. It's important for us to believe in ourselves, to believe in our future, and to believe that it will get better," said U.S. Rep. Spencer Bachus, R-Ala., and chairman of the Financial Services Committee, in addressing the uncertainty and lack of confidence that are impeding the recovery.

Both Republicans and Democrats on the committee pressed Bernanke to take a position on deficit reduction.

Politely dodging the "spending cut or tax increase" questions, the Fed chairman stressed that the Congress and the president need to be "a little bit cautious" about sharp cuts in the very near term because of the potential impact on any recovery.

Even in the longer term, Bernanke said, Congress should be sure any cuts would help the economy grow.

"We don't want to just cut, cut, cut," he said.




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Global computer sales growth modest: Gartner
San Francisco (AFP) July 13, 2011 - More that 85.2 million computers shipped worldwide during the recently ended quarter as the economy and interest in tablets kept market growth modest, industry trackers said Wednesday.

Shipments of personal computers (PCs) were 2.3 percent greater than that seen in the same three-month period last year, according to Gartner.

Market research firm IDC pegged growth during the quarter at 2.6 percent.

The slow overall growth indicated that the PC market is in a period of adjustment, according to Gartner principal analyst Mikako Kitagawa.

"After strong growth in shipments of consumer PCs for four years, driven by strong demand for mini-notebooks and low-priced consumer notebooks, the market is shifting to modest, but steady growth," Kitagawa said.

PC shipments in the United States totaled 16.9 million units in a 5.6 percent decline from the same quarter last year, according to Gartner. IDC calculated the year-over-year drop as 4.3 percent.

Factors behind the drooping US performance included being compared to blockbuster growth in the same quarter last year and interest by companies in alternatives to running on-premise computer networks.

"Demand has softened as corporate buyers continue to focus on increasing share of their IT budget in new IT solutions such as cloud and virtualization," said IDC analyst Rajani Singh.

Along with economic doldrums, interest in tablet computers such as Apple's coveted iPads was hampering home PC sales, according to analysts.

"Given the hype around media tablets such as the iPad, retailers were very conservative in placing orders for PCs," Kitagawa said.

"Instead, they wanted to secure space for media tablets," she added.

Asia and Latin America were bright spots for PC makers, with shipments there rising 9.6 percent and 15 percent respectively when compared with the same three-month period in 2010, according to Gartner.

"These preliminary results continue to reflect pressure from competing consumer and business products as well as cautious spending," said Jay Chou, a senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.

"Nevertheless, product refreshes and promotions in the second half of the year as well as easier year-ago data should boost growth in the second half of the year," he continued.

Hewlett-Packard remained the top PC maker, with its share of the global market increasing to 17.4 percent, Gartner reported.

Dell ranked second with 12.3 percent of the market.

Chinese computer maker Lenovo saw the biggest gain in market share while Taiwan-based Acer's portion shrank, according to IDC and Gartner.

Macintosh computer maker Apple saw the strongest growth among "top-tier" PC vendors in the United States, Gartner reported.





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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Argentina accused of muzzling economists
Buenos Aires (UPI) Jul 13, 2011
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is facing accusations her administration is seeking to muzzle independent economists for publishing data that runs counter to the government's version of key statistics on economic performance. Fernandez and non-government economic think tanks in the country have been at loggerheads frequently over data that critics dismiss as window dr ... read more


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