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POLITICAL ECONOMY
G20 seeks to smooth economic shock waves from China
By Aur�lia END
Paris (AFP) Sept 3, 2015


Lew: US will hold China 'accountable' on exchange rate
Washington (AFP) Sept 3, 2015 - US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said Thursday that the United States would hold China responsible for the political and economic impact of its currency policies after last month's yuan devaluation.

"They have to understand, and I make this point to them quite clearly, that there's an economic and a political reality to things like exchange rates," Lew said in a CNBC interview that aired Thursday.

"They need to understand that they signal their intentions by the actions they take and the way they announce them," he said, referring to Beijing's sudden devaluation of the yuan, or renminbi, on August 11 that triggered shock waves in global markets.

The Chinese authorities "have to be very clear that they're continuing to move in a positive direction. And we're going to hold them accountable," Lew said.

Lew said that China's exchange rate policy and its economic reforms would figure in the discussions at the Group of 20 meeting of finance chiefs that opens Friday in Turkey.

"How they manage their exchange rate is a matter of great concern to us and that they need to be willing to let market forces drive the value up, not just drive it down," he said in the interview conducted Wednesday.

Since the yuan was allowed to sink about 2.8 percent against the dollar over three days last month, the rate has held almost unchanged, with the Chinese currency strengthening slightly since Monday.

The Treasury secretary pointed to the US economy's "continuing signs of strength" as a bright spot in the global economy where a number of countries are experiencing weak growth.

"We've (recently) had a consistent and quite stable series of indicators that the US economy remains strong," he told CNBC.

"We're seeing good, sustained job growth. And we're seeing increasingly strong consumer demand."

Lew's remarks came as the Federal Reserve plans to raise ultra-low interest rates this year, dependent on whether data supports the view that the economy is strong enough to weather the hike.

The Fed has held its benchmark federal funds rate at the zero level since 2008 in a bid to support the economy's recovery from the Great Recession.

World finance ministers and central bankers gather in Turkey this weekend to grapple with the fallout of slowing growth in China, tanking emerging economies and panicked global stock markets.

Signs that China's economy -- the world's second-largest -- is slowing more than expected have panicked stock markets, pushed commodity prices to fresh lows, sparked a rout in emerging market currencies and thrown into question a US interest rate rise previously expected in September.

The potential chilling impact of a new cycle of US interest rate hikes fed uncertainty and concern ahead of the meeting of the Group of 20 top advanced and emerging economies.

"China's transition to a lower growth, while broadly in line with forecasts, appears to have larger-than-previously-envisaged cross-border repercussions, reflected in weakening commodity prices and stock prices," the International Monetary Fund warned in a report on policy challenges facing the G20.

"The expected boost in economic activity from lower oil prices has not materialized, and lower energy costs are keeping inflation low. Hence, monetary policy must stay accommodative to prevent real interest rates from rising prematurely," it said.

The Fund cautioned policymakers at the US Federal Reserve, who meet September 16-17, to make their decision on interest rates dependant on the economic and financial data, noting "little evidence of meaningful wage and price pressures".

It urged the European Central Bank, which was meeting Thursday, to extend its 60-billion-euro ($68 billion)-a-month sovereign bond buying programme if inflation fails to meet its medium-term target of just under two percent.

The IMF told the Bank of Japan it "should stand ready for further easing".

This week IMF managing director Christine Lagarde conceded global economic growth will likely be weaker in 2015 than the 3.3 percent estimate the IMF made just two months ago, due in part to fallout from China's slowdown.

Whether China can manage a soft landing after years of explosive economic growth will be at the heart of G20 talks.

- China in focus -

One Western government official said China's enormous reserves and determination to ease its economy from reliance on state investment and exports to increased domestic consumer spending should be sufficient to overcome its current troubles.

"The Chinese economy has the means to confront its economic slowing in the near-term," said a Western governmental source, who acknowledged the "real question is the one of switching to a more sustainable development model".

Andrew Kenningham, senior economist at Capital Economics in London, says some of the reaction to China's slowing has been over-blown anyway.

"For China we don't think the outlook is nearly as bad as many people are suggesting. We could even see some re-acceleration of growth in the second half of this year, partly because of policy stimulus," he said.

"If you look forward China is then likely to continue slowing but at a relatively gradual pace and a pace that should not cause too many problems for the rest of the world."

Not all observers are as optimistic, however, and calls have multiplied for Beijing to step up efforts to address the panic.

The United States has appealed to China to be more transparent to financial markets, especially concerning the "actions and objectives" of its economic policies, a senior official with the US Treasury said.

"It's important for communication to be clear and effective across a range of issues, be they related to growth, financial markets and so forth."

But China isn't alone in encountering problems. The United States has produced mixed economic data, French growth has again stalled, and both Canada and Brazil have entered recession as commodity prices slide.

- Reassuring, not resounding -

Given that context, messages from gathering G20 officials will likely seek to be more reassuring than resounding.

"I am convinced that the recent market developments -- which are not yet over -- are not the sort to destabilise the European economy," European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said Tuesday in a preview of the expected G20 tone.

Sebastien Jean, director of the CEPII economic research institute said one focus of the meeting should be to clearly differentiate market panic about China from effective action that must be taken to address the situation.

"There's been a lot of over-interpretation, so it will be important for G20 leaders to reaffirm their determination to coordinate" action, Jean said.

Concerted action is even more important amid what Jean calls "the really sensitive moment" of the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise interest rates after years at rock-bottom levels.

In 2013, the mere mention of rate increases by the Federal Reserve was enough to rock emerging markets that suffered flights of investment funds toward more lucrative US returns.

That response by investors has already begun in expectation of US rate hikes -- further slowing emerging economies that had been motors of global growth in recent years.


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POLITICAL ECONOMY
US to seek demand growth, press China for clarity at G20
Washington (AFP) Sept 1, 2015
The US will press fellow G20 economies this week to act to boost world growth, and urge China to better communicate its policies, a senior Treasury official said Tuesday. The official said Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew's focus will be on measures countries can undertake to stimulate demand when the economic chiefs of the Group of 20 elite economies meet on Thursday and Friday in Ankara, Turk ... read more


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