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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Get ready for climate change, says UN panel
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Nov 16, 2011



The toll from ever-more intense floods, drought, and heatwaves will crescendo this century unless humanity anticipates the onslaught, according to a UN report set to be unveiled on Friday.

In an 800-page assessment, the Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says global warming will magnify the frequence and force of extreme weather events, and defences must be prepared now to avoid worse misery in the future.

"The character and severity of impacts ... depends not only on the extremes themselves but also on vulnerability and exposure," notes a draft "summary for policymakers" obtained by AFP.

The 20-page document is being vetting this week at a meeting of the 194-nation body in Kampala, Uganda.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon drove home the "be prepared" message at a climate forum in Dhaka on Monday.

"Natural hazards need not cause human catastrophe," he said. "There are many cost-effective remedies that communities and countries can take to reduce the impact of extreme weather events."

Poor countries with scant margin for manoeuvre will be hit first and hardest.

But the 2003 heatwave that killed 70,000 in Europe and Hurricane Katrina's flooding of New Orleans are deadly reminders that rich countries must brace for impacts too.

And beyond a certain threshold, the report cautions, all efforts to adapt may be overwhelmed unless the underlying carbon emissions that drive global warming are held in check.

Climate change as risk management

Three years in the making, the special report -- based on thousands of peer-reviewed scientific articles -- is the IPCC's first dedicated probe of the nexus of climate change and extreme weather events.

It is also the first time the panel has woven climate science and risk management into a single analysis.

Since the IPCC issued its inaugural assessment in 1990, "historically distinct research communities" have worked independently and produced separate reports.

That segregation was probably a mistake, experts on both sides of the divide told AFP.

"Disaster specialists have a world of experience that should be an essential baseline for adaptation to future climate change," said Tom Downing, head of the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership in Oxford and a veteran of the IPCC process.

"It is encouraging to see the IPCC take forward this integration in a groundbreaking assessment."

"One of the key take-home messages of this report is the emphasis on exposure and vulnerability," agreed Will Steffen, head of the Australian National University's Climate Change Institute.

"Science is only part of the puzzle here. The others have to do with people's resilience and adaptability."

Neville Nicholls, a professor at Monash University in Melborne and a lead author of the pure-science chapter on how climate change affects weather, said the collaboration "strengthened us both."

"It has made the scientists focus a lot more on what the risk community really needs, and the disaster risk community have a better idea of what we can -- and can't -- give them," he said by phone.

The change in tack follows several reputation-damaging mistakes uncovered in the IPCC's landmark Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.

Most of the errors, including a wildly inaccurate estimate of the pace of glacier melt-off in the Himalayas, stem in part from poor coordination between these communities, IPCC scientists acknowledge.

'Low-regret' options

The new, solution-oriented report, identifies relatively easy and cheap "low-regret" actions such as early warning systems in areas likely to be hit by deadly heatwaves or flooding.

Improved building codes and forecasting capacity could likewise help save lives in cyclone-prone regions.

But the longer such measures are put off the more costly or ineffective they become, it cautions.

Many adaptation schemes have already been put in place, especially at the local level.

Newly-planted mangrove forests in Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar help break the destructive force of cyclones jacked up by warmer and rising seas. And new heat-resistant strains of corn, rice and beans could save thousands of lives.

More than 350 million worldwide people face a "perfect storm" of conditions for potential food disaster, according to the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).

Sometimes there may be not "options" at all -- citizens of several small island states face permanent relocation due to rising seas, the report said.

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Obama calls for China, India action on climate
Canberra (AFP) Nov 16, 2011 - US president Barack Obama Wednesday said he would be pushing for greater efforts by emerging economies on global warming at coming climate talks in South Africa, which he warned would be a "tough slog".

Obama described Australia's carbon tax, passed into law last week, as a "bold strategy" to tackle pollution and said he would be advocating that countries like China and India take greater responsibility at Durban.

"The advanced economies can't do this alone, so part of our insistence when we are in multilateral fora, and I will continue to insist on this when we go to Durban, is that if we are taking a series of steps then it's important that emerging economies like China and India are also part of the bargain," he said.

"It doesn't mean that they have to do exactly what we do, we understand that in terms of per capita carbon emissions they've got a long way to go before they catch up to us, but it does mean that they've got to take seriously their responsibilities as well," he told reporters on a trip to Australia.

High-level climate talks, due to start in Durban on November 28 under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, are being called a make-or-break meeting for legally binding carbon emission reduction targets.

"Ultimately what we want is a mechanism whereby all countries are making an effort and it's going to be a tough slog, particularly at a time when a lot of economies are still struggling, but I think it's actually one that in the long-term can be beneficial," Obama said.

UNFCCC negotiations have made little progress since the stormy Copenhagen Summit of December 2009, which skirted disaster as leaders squabbled over how to share out cuts in carbon emissions.

"As we go forward over the next several years my hope is that the United States, as one of several countries with a big carbon footprint, can find further ways to reduce our carbon emissions," Obama said.

"I think that's good for the world. I actually think over the long-term it's good for our economies as well."

China and fellow major developing countries Brazil, India and South Africa in August issued a joint call for the Durban talks to extend the Kyoto Protocol, which the United States is the only major nation to have rejected.



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Some of the countries most affected by climate change should be an "inspiration" to rich nations on how to reduce their emissions, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said on Monday. Speaking at the Climate Vulnerable forum - which brings together countries most affected by climate change - Ban praised low-lying nations such as the Maldives, Costa Rica and Samoa for committing to be carbon ne ... read more


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