. Earth Science News .
Greenhouse Gas Effect Consistent Over 420 Million Years

Thankfully the process of "global warming" has been a key aspect of our world for a very long time.
by Staff Writers
New Haven CT (SPX) Mar 29, 2007
New calculations show that sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) has been consistent for the last 420 million years, according to an article in Nature by geologists at Yale and Wesleyan Universities.

A popular predictor of future climate sensitivity is the change in global temperature produced by each doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. This study confirms that in the Earth's past 420 million years, each doubling of atmospheric CO2 translates to an average global temperature increase of about 3 Celsius, or 5 Fahrenheit.

According to the authors, since there has continuously been life on the planet over this time span, there must be an ongoing balance between CO2 entering and leaving the atmosphere from the rocks and waters at Earth's surface. Their simulations examined a wide span of possible relationships between atmospheric CO2 and temperature and the likelihood they could have occurred based on proxy data from geological samples.

Most estimates of climate sensitivity have been based on computer simulations of climate or records of climate change over the past few decades to thousands of years, when carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures were similar to or lower than today. Such estimates could underestimate the magnitude of large climate-change events.

To keep Earth's carbon cycle in balance, atmospheric CO2 has varied over geologic time. Carbon-cycle models balance chemical reactions that involve carbon, such as photosynthesis and the formation of limestone, on a global scale. To better predict future trends in global warming, these researchers compared estimates from long-term modeling of Earth's carbon cycle with the recent proxy measurements of CO2.

This study used 500 data points in the geological records as "proxy data" and evaluated them in the context of the CO2 cycling models of co-author Robert Berner, professor emeritus of geology and geophysics at Yale who pioneered models of the balance of CO2 in the Earth and Earth's atmosphere.

"Proxy data are indirect measurements of CO2 - they are a measure of the effects of CO2," explained co-author Jeffrey Park, professor of geology and geophysics at Yale who created the computer simulations for the project. "While we cannot actually measure the CO2 that was in the atmosphere millions of years ago, we can measure the geologic record of its presence. For example, measurement of carbon isotopes in ancient ocean-plankton material reflects atmospheric CO2 concentrations."

Led by Dana L. Royer, assistant professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Wesleyan University, who did his graduate work in geology at Yale, the collaboration simulated 10,000 variations in the carbon-cycle processes such as the sensitivity of plant growth to extra CO2 in the atmosphere. They evaluated these variations for a range of atmospheric warming conditions, using the agreement with the geologic data to determine the most likely warming scenarios. The model-estimated atmospheric CO2 variations were tested against data from ancient rocks.

Other proxy measurements of soil, rock and fossils provided estimates of CO2 over the past 420 million years. Calculation of the climate sensitivity in this way did not require independent estimates of temperature. It incorporated information from times when the Earth was substantially warmer and colder than today, and reflects the sensitivity of the carbon-cycle balance over millions of years.

"Our results are consistent with estimates from shorter-term records, and indicate that climate sensitivity was almost certainly greater than 1.5, but less than 5.5 degrees Celsius over this period," said Park. "At those extremes of CO2 sensitivity, [1.5C or 5.5C] the carbon-cycle would have been in a 'perfect storm' condition."

Email This Article

Related Links
Yale University
Explore The Early Earth at TerraDaily.com

Mammals Geared For Global Rise Long After Dinosaurs Died
Paris (AFP) March 28, 2007
Most modern mammals can be traced to a surge in biodiversity that occurred long after the dinosaurs were wiped out, according to a new study that challenges a keystone theory about life on Earth today.







  • Life Or Death A Matter Of Luck In Japanese Quake
  • Japanese Earthquake Victims Spend Restless Night
  • Cyclone Kills 36 Displaces 50000 In Madagascar
  • Birth And Rebirth In New Orleans

  • Republicans Move To Block Al Gore Live Earth Rock Concert
  • Healthy Coastal Wetlands Would Adapt To Rising Oceans
  • Sweeping Changes To Global Climate Seen By 2100
  • Himalayan Glacier Melting Observed From Space

  • DMCii To Launch New Higher-Resolution Satellite Imaging Service
  • First Greenhouse Gas Animations Produced Using Envisat SCIAMACHY Data
  • GeoEye Acquires Leading Aerial Imagery Provider From GE Oil And Gas
  • Take A Closer Look At Our Planet At The Palais De La Decouverte In Paris

  • US Automakers Press Bush On Ethanol
  • Russian Diplomat Declares Ministry Committed To Energy Security
  • Boeing Prepares Fuel Cell Demonstrator Airplane For Ground And Flight Testing
  • Consumer Electronics Firms Seek Edge By Going Green

  • Antibiotic Resistance In Plague
  • Researchers Find Best Way To Detect Airborne Pathogens
  • Bird Flu Found In Endangered Japanese Eagle
  • Genome Sequence Shows What Makes Bacteria Dangerous For Troops In Iraq

  • Monster Toad Found In Australia
  • Iron In Northwest Rivers Fuels Phytoplankton And Fish Populations
  • Science Of Metagenomics Will Transform Modern Microbiology
  • Researchers Figure Out What Makes A Simple Biological Clock Tick

  • Visions Of A Green China Lost In The Haze
  • Plastic That Degrades In Seawater Could Be Boon For Cruise Industry And Others
  • China Backs Away Fom Green Plan
  • Global Shipping Must Curb 'Unchecked' Pollution

  • The Mother Of All Tooth Decay
  • Man's Earliest Direct Ancestors Looked More Apelike Than Previously Believed
  • Hebron Settlers Spread Out
  • Moral Judgment Fails Without Feelings

  • The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2006 - SpaceDaily.AFP and UPI Wire Stories are copyright Agence France-Presse and United Press International. ESA PortalReports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additionalcopyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by SpaceDaily on any Web page published or hosted by SpaceDaily. Privacy Statement