Computer simulations produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) suggested that ocean currents could send oil surging beyond the Gulf of Mexico and along the United States' eastern seaboard.

"I've had a lot of people ask me, 'Will the oil reach Florida?'" NCAR scientist Synte Peacock said in a statement.

"Actually, our best knowledge says the scope of this environmental disaster is likely to reach far beyond Florida, with impacts that have yet to be understood."

At least 20 million gallons of oil are believed to have spewed into the Gulf of Mexico since an April 20 explosion tore through a BP-leased rig just off the Louisiana coast, making it the worst spill in US history.

The NCAR simulations suggested once oil entered the Gulf of Mexico's "Loop Current" -- part of the Gulf Stream which sweeps around the Florida panhandle -- it would be only weeks before it reached Florida's Atlantic shores.

From there, the current could take oil as far north as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, before turning east, the simulations showed.

It was not know whether the oil would be a thin surface layer or whether it would be below the surface.

The NCAR, a Colorado-based facility supported by the National Science Foundation that works with university scientists, emphasized however that the simulations were not a forecast because it was impossible to accurately predict the exact location of the oil in several weeks or months time.

However all six simulations released Thursday suggested oil would work its way into the Loop Current and along the Atlantic coastline.

earlier related report
Spill threatens Florida's beaches, and tourism livelihood
Miami (AFP) June 3, 2010 - The Gulf of Mexico oil spill approached the sandy white beaches of Pensacola Thursday, threatening Florida's tourist industry just ahead of the prime summer season.

"The phones are not ringing for reservations," lamented Laura Lee, spokeswoman for Visit Florida in the beachside town, adding that the tourism industry is "very anxious about summer business."

The area's crystal clear waters and famously bright beaches are open and not yet impacted by oil, Lee told AFP, saying "right now we are just taking it day by day."

Some oil stains have been spotted in the sea about 10 miles (16 kilometers) from Pensacola, however, and the spill was expected to come ashore over the next two days, Florida Governor Charlie Crist said this week.

"The shifts, the winds and the currents are projecting weathered oil from the leading edge (which) could impact the Florida Panhandle as early as this week, possible in a day or two," he said Wednesday.

Having already contaminated the Louisiana coast, the United States' worst environmental catastrophe is now being driven toward Florida by winds blowing from the south and west.

That spells disaster for a state that is one of the world's top destination for tourists, with more than 80 million visitors a year.

At a time of high unemployment in other sectors, tourism generates more than a million jobs and in 2008 brought the state 65 billion dollars in revenues.

The US Coast Guard said Thursday it was investigating reports of oily substances and tar balls reaching the hit the state's idyllic Keys on its southern tip. Officials said the reports would require sampling and testing to determine if any pollution is related to the Gulf spill.

The Gulf spill also had confirmed reports by fishermen who observed oil sheen not far from Pensacola Beach and other beaches in northwestern Florida.

The hotel business, commercial and sport fishing and diving are mainstays of the economy, especially in the summer, and they would be seriously impacted if oil spreads into the region and onto its beaches.

"Waters are clean and beaches are clean as well, but in this incident everything changes, so we are watchful, we are monitoring the situation, and we will do everything to protect our beautiful state," said Crist.

Florida has already received 35 million dollars in compensation from BP, the British energy giant responsible for the leak, and is using it to promote visits to the state and get the word out that its beaches and waters are clean.

But if oil tars Florida beaches, the message will change, said Crist.

The public relations campaign will instead "discuss where it is and more importantly where it is not so the people understand that most of Florida is untouched by this at this hour," he said.

Michael Sole, head of Florida's environmental protection department, ruled out the use of dispersants to break up the spill before it reaches shore.

"The product that is heading our way is largely a weathered product, tar balls, tar mats, that type of material. Dispersants are largely ineffective on this heavily weathered oil," he said.

Oceanographers have warned that the use of dispersants in Florida could have devastating effects on the coral reefs that run parallel to the Florida Keys at the southern end of the state, another tourist attraction that is now at risk.

Every attempt BP has made to plug or contain the leak has failed since explosions ripped through its Deepwater Horizon rig April 20, unleashing what has become the largest oil spill in US history.

earlier related report
Top US Senator pushes new oil drilling rules
Washington (AFP) June 3, 2010 - The top US senator pressed key lawmakers Thursday to craft legislation by July 4 to prevent the kind of "economic, social and environmental devastation" wrought by the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told major committee chairs that he aimed to include their proposals in a comprehensive energy and climate change bill he hoped to bring to a full Senate vote in the next three months.

"I think it is extremely important that you each examine what could be included in a comprehensive energy bill that would address the unfolding disaster in the Gulf of Mexico," Reid wrote in a letter.

"The economic, social and environmental devastation occurring there now due to the oil pollution is unprecedented," he said, pushing for steps to address the crisis and "reduce the risks of such a catastrophe happening again."

Reid's letter went to the chairs of the finance, energy, environment, banking, judiciary, homeland security, agriculture, and commerce committees, which have jurisdiction over key parts of the overall climate bill.

"I hope to bring comprehensive clean energy legislation before the full Senate later this summer," said the majority leader.

Reid suggested a need for new measures to ensure oil companies are accountable for the full damages caused by spills; compensate oil pollution-related losses; and updated criminal and civil penalties.

"In addition, we must make sure that effective federal safety standards are in place and effectively enforced and that we are better equipped to avert, detect and adequately respond to disastrous failures in the future," he said.

Reid said the United States "cannot now afford to halt" domestic oil production, "but we can demand that companies operating in deepwater invest in the development and deployment of emergency response technologies and safety procedures that are sufficient to handle worst case scenarios."

And he called for a more aggressive effort to develop alternative fuels and new-energy vehicles to "move much more quickly to kick the oil habit as soon as possible" and urged proposals be unveiled "before the Fourth of July recess."

"We must act soon to ensure there are no statutory impediments to quick action in the Gulf of Mexico and to moving forward rapidly on a safer, cleaner and more secure energy policy," he said.

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