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CLIMATE SCIENCE
How will climate change affect your livelihood?
By Marlowe HOOD
Paris (AFP) Aug 29, 2015


UN climate talks: the sticking points
Paris (AFP) Aug 29, 2015 - The 195-nation UN climate talks resume Monday when rank-and-file diplomats gather in Bonn to lay the foundation for a global climate pact to be inked in December.

Dozens of issues have stymied the negotiations, now into their third decade under the auspices of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Here are the key points of contention:

MITIGATION

All countries agree that greenhouse-gas emissions which drive warming must be curbed. But by how much?

The UN has endorsed a ceiling of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels.

But poor countries and low-lying, small-island states -- which will be hit first and hardest by climate change -- say 2.0 C is not good enough, and favour a tougher goal of 1.5 C (2.4 F).

Timing is important too: To have a 50/50 shot at 2 C, global CO2 emissions must peak by 2025 and drop dramatically thereafter.

By 2050, humans must no longer be adding CO2 to the atmosphere.

FAIRNESS

The 1992 UNFCCC charter enshrines a principle that rich countries historically caused the problem, and should do more to fix it.

That divide was entrenched in the Kyoto Protocol which went into force in 2005 and placed emissions-curbing targets on industrialised nations only -- excluding the United States which did not sign up.

Much has changed: Fast-growing China and India have become the world's No. 1 and No. 4 carbon emitters, and others who were labelled "developing" countries 25 years ago, have since scaled the economic ladder.

At the same time, the European Union and United States have slowed their carbon pollution.

Whether, or to what extent, the original "differentiated responsibilities" principle should be abandoned or modified is hugely contentious in determining how to set emissions goals, verification rules, and the flow of financial aid.

MONEY

One of the few concrete decisions to come out of the 2009 UN climate conference in Copenhagen was a pledge from rich economies to muster $100 billion (89 billion euros) per year in financial support for poor countries, starting from 2020.

Some of that money will help poor and developing countries adopt technology to curb their own emissions. The rest will be earmarked for measures to adapt to climate impacts, like rising seas and spreading deserts, which can no longer be avoided.

Where that money will come from and how it will be distributed still has to be worked out.

More recently, least-developed countries, small-island and developing states have presented an additional demand for compensation for climate "loss and damage" to come -- a non-starter with rich nations.

REVIEW

The proposed Paris accord will have as its backbone a roster of voluntary national pledges for reducing carbon emissions.

China, the US and the EU -- which together account for more than half of global carbon dioxide (CO2) pollution -- have already submitted theirs.

But scientists say the sum of global commitments is unlikely to meet the 2 C objective.

As a result, some countries have proposed putting in place a strict review process, starting in 2020, to see if the 2 C goal is on track and, if not, how countries can ratchet up their contributions.

As the reality of global warming starts to hit home, people may ask: "How will it affect my livelihood?"

Well, that depends.

On your profession, your age, and exactly where you live, among other things.

Here, then, are a few scenarios for a climate-altered future, when rising temperatures are closing in on the threshold of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degree Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels which scientists warn we should not cross.

The year is 2030.

The coffee farmer

You are a 60-year old coffee farmer in Nicaragua, selling to an organic wholesaler.

Global demand has soared and commodity prices tripled since 2015, but business is not so good. Scorching temperatures have decimated your output, even after you sold your land to purchase a higher-altitude parcel in search of cooler climes.

Not only yields are down, but also the quality of your beans.

Small consolation that many of your 20-million fellow coffee growers around the world are in similarly dire straits.

The high-flying lawyer

You are a 39-year old real estate lawyer in West Palm Beach, Florida.

You are flush and life is sweet, despite your million-dollar house having been swept away three years earlier by Hurricane Hillary.

Sea levels have only risen 14 centimetres (5.5 inches) in the last 15 years, but Hillary's tide-enhanced storm surge caused $500 billion dollars/euros in damages.

Since Washington cancelled federal flood insurance for properties under a metre (three feet) above sea level, you have more clients than you can handle.

They are suing private insurance companies claiming bankruptcy to avoid having to pay out, and though your clients may only get 20 cents for every policy-insured dollar, you still get your fees.

The Indonesian fisherman

You used to work fishing boats out of Surabaya, a port city in Java, but are now unemployed.

The bottom fell out of the local industry in the mid-2020s. Intensive harvesting had already caused several species to collapse, including bigeye and yellowfin.

But then, as oceans warmed, other species -- Pacific bluefin, crevalle jack, scad -- moved to cooler waters beyond the reach of local vessels.

No other species have come to replace them.

The Alpine hotelier

You own a ski-resort hotel in the French Alps at an altitude of 1,280 metres (4,199 feet).

Since 2020, for two years out of three you have had to manufacture snow to ensure the season. In 2022 and 2028 it was so warm that even artificial flakes couldn't keep the lifts going.

The silver lining: summer tourism has picked up as people seek alternatives to the scorching heat waves that regularly hit the Mediterranean basin.

The Sahel subsistence farmer

Ten years ago, you replaced your millet crop with genetically-modified, drought-resistant sorghum as desertification creeps up on you in the northeastern corner of the Mopti region of Mali.

That was a good move. But as the local climate gets drier by the year, you wonder how long you and your family can hold out.

You have resolved: When the goats die, you will join the other villagers who have already fled to the capital Bamako.

The Tasmanian winegrower

Parts of the island -- Australia's southernmost inhabited outpost -- now rival France's fabled Burgundy region as the lead grower of the fabled pinot noir and chardonnay grapes. Tassie's Champagne-style wine wins big awards too.

Oh what a difference an extra two degrees can make!

Wine exports from Tasmania's Tamar Valley are soaring with grape-growing temperatures now in the ideal range -- what they were in northern France, now too hot, a mere 15 years ago.

The future

You are a seven-year-old only child living with your professional-class parents in a 23rd-story Shanghai apartment.

You were not even born when 195 nations struck a deal in Paris in December 2015, vowing to slash carbon pollution by a large enough margin to keep global warming in check.

They failed, and Earth is on track for warming of 4C by 2100.

You'll be 77 when you greet the 22nd century. Good luck getting there.


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