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POLITICAL ECONOMY
IMF warns on China's mid-term economic stability
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Aug 12, 2016


China July new bank loans at two-year low
Beijing (AFP) Aug 12, 2016 - New loans extended by Chinese banks in July fell to their lowest level in two years, official data showed Friday, as authorities tighten credit on concerns over the country's mounting debt problem.

Chinese lenders gave out 463.6 billion yuan ($69.8 billion) in loans last month, the central People's Bank of China (PBoC) said in a statement.

It was the lowest figure since July 2014, according to Bloomberg News, and a sharp fall from 1.38 trillion yuan banks lent in June.

It was also far behind a median forecast of 850 billion yuan in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Easy credit has been an important policy tool as Beijing works to avoid a hard landing for the world's second-largest economy, but many analysts are concerned the country faces a hangover from its debt binge.

China's total debt hit 168.48 trillion yuan at the end of last year, equivalent to 249 percent of national GDP, top government think tank the China Academy of Social Sciences has estimated.

The country's mostly state-controlled banks wrote off more than $300 billion of bad loans in the past three years, a high-ranking official with industry watchdog the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in June, as Beijing sought to reassure investors that China can cope with its mounting debt problem.

The People's Daily, the ruling Communist Party's official mouthpiece, warned in an op-ed in May that China must turn off the taps of credit-driven growth to avoid crisis in its financial system in the face of rising bad loans and other risks.

China is a key driver of the world economy but grew at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century last year, and has decelerated further since then.

"The impact of earlier monetary easing now appears to be waning with credit growth falling back as a result," Capital Economics analyst Julian Evans-Pritchard said in a note.

Official figures released Friday showed growth momentum further cooled in July as key indicators for retail sales, factory output and investment all showed weaker growth than in June.

In a separate statement, the PBoC said that total social financing -- an alternative measure of credit in the real economy -- fell to 487.9 billion yuan in July from 1.63 trillion yuan in June.

It was also the weakest number since July 2014 and was lower than a median estimate of one trillion yuan in the Bloomberg survey.

China must take "urgent" action to reform its economy or risk "permanently lower growth", the International Monetary Fund said in a report Friday, citing mounting corporate debt as a major concern.

While near-term growth prospects remain good, Beijing's failure to move on long-promised reforms is raising the chances of a medium-term hard landing in the world's second-largest economy, it said.

China is seeking to restructure its economy to make the spending power of its nearly 1.4 billion people a key driver for growth, instead of massive government investment and cheap exports.

But the transition has caused growth to sputter. The Asian giant's economy expanded at 6.7 percent in the April-June period, the same as the first three months of the year and slowing from 6.9 percent in 2015 -- its weakest annual rate in a quarter of a century.

"China's economic transition will continue to be complex, challenging and potentially bumpy, against the backdrop of heightened downside risks and eroding buffers," the IMF report said.

"Vulnerabilities are still rising on a dangerous trajectory and fiscal and foreign exchange buffers, while still adequate, are eroding," it said.

Resource misallocation, corporate debt, excess capacity and financial opacity were major problems that needed to be addressed, it specified.

"While the challenges are still manageable, urgent action is needed to ensure they remain so," it added.

While Beijing has made verbal pledges to tackle such issues, it has not followed through in practice, the report noted, saying that "government policy and pronouncements seem to alternate between prioritising reform and growth".

The report cited growing corporate debt as a particular concern.

Excluding the financial sector, it stood at around 120 percent of GDP in 2015, estimates in the IMF document said, projecting it could grow by more than 20 points by 2021.

A June report by the China Academy of Social Sciences put the figure even higher, saying it could have already reached 156 percent back in 2014.

The IMF said that in the mid-term, failure to move would "add to vulnerabilities, worsen resource misallocation, and lead to permanently lower growth".

Beijing has no time to lose, the Washington-based institution said, recommending that "progress should be kick-started in the next few months."

The report painted a rosier picture for China's short-term prospects, saying that stimulus measures had created a "benign" outlook.

In July, the IMF upped its forecast for Chinese growth this year by 0.1 percentage points, to 6.6 percent.


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