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Is Mugabe Still In Control
UPI Correspondent Washington (UPI) April 02, 2007 The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front has endorsed President Robert Mugabe's 2008 re-election bid. This came as a shock to many who had hoped ZANU-PF would act on the condemnation of Mugabe's maltreatment of opposition leaders. "I think it is disappointing and does not bode well for Zimbabwe's immediate future," said Jennifer Cooke, co-director of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack in a statement Friday called the nomination sad and outrageous as they had hoped better for the Zimbabwean people. Meanwhile, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change Morgan Tsvangirai said he was appalled by the results. Tsvangirai was detained and beaten twice this month by government forces. British Prime Minister Tony Blair called the situation "appalling, disgraceful and utterly tragic for the people." The current crisis began when local police officials imposed a three-month ban on political rallies in the capital, Harare, in February. Opposition parties vowed to defy the ban, thereby triggering the violence. "Police forces have gone house-to-house beating people with batons, stealing possessions and accusing them of supporting the opposition," a Human Rights Watch report said. South African President Thabo Mbeki has come under pressure to use his relationship with Mugabe to resolve the crisis. He has to contend with the liberator status Mugabe enjoys in the region. Despite this, analysts say support for Mugabe has diminished as his people are afraid of what he would do to them if they oppose his views. "The government of Zimbabwe has intensified its brutal suppression of its own citizens in an effort to crush all forms of dissent," Georgette Gagnon, deputy Africa director for Humans Rights Watch, said in a report Wednesday. Mbeki has refused to publicly criticize the 83-year-old Mugabe, preferring instead to adopt a quiet and constructive approach to handling issues. On Thursday, 14 member states of the Southern African Development Community met in Tanzania and mandated Mbeki to set up a meeting between Mugabe and Tsvangirai to resolve the stalemate. The members expressed solidarity with Zimbabwe. The summit called on Britain to "honour its commitments" to funding land reforms in Zimbabwe. Blair has continuously insisted the issues at stake go beyond bilateral relations with his country. "What is not true is Britain is the only country in the world that is desperately concerned at the plight of Zimbabweans," British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said in an interview with the Times. But Zimbabwean presidential spokesman George Charamba responded to comments by world leaders by saying his country was "under assault from western countries that have imposed illegal sanctions on it." Human Rights Watch also confirmed the role Zimbabwe plays in committing serious abuses against opposition activists and ordinary Zimbabweans. SADC's support raises questions about the possibility of resolving the crisis, or to what extent African leaders are ready to alienate Mugabe to please the West. Already, with ZANU-PF's endorsement of Mugabe's re-election bid, all avenues for resolving the crisis appear gone. There is little the West can do right now if the regional leaders themselves decided to adopt a lukewarm approach. Some regional leaders believe what is happening to Mugabe could happen to them also and are afraid supporting the West to Zimbabwe's detriment may result in loss of support for them. "The big change would have to come from the ruling party. It is hard to see where the United States and the rest of the international community can do anything, and I don't think travel sanctions and asset freezes would change Mugabe's behaviour," Cooke stated. Martha Mutisi, a Fulbright scholar from Zimbabwe studying for her master's in conflict analysis at George Mason University, told UPI her government spreads propaganda in high schools and brainwashes the students into believing ZANU-PF plays a positive role in the country. Mutisi said students are banned from using books written by western authors. These children have to work at the farms first before attending school, she said. "I can say the Zimbabwe from 1980 to the late '90s was something to talk about. I am a product of that education. But the Zimbabwe we are talking about now is equally different." Current economic downfalls, high inflation and high unemployment, she said, have all contributed to a depletion of educational facilities at high schools. "When I went to school, I used to have a book for every subject, but it is not any more. Now students have to share books," Mutisi said. She said the opposition in her country is too weak. "It needs a lot of capacity building and leadership skills. We need someone who would be able to work well with members of the opposition to create the Zimbabwe we want. This is contrary to the current Zimbabwe, characterized by political violence and abuse of young people and women," she said. The Mugabe administration has to grapple with other concerns, especially the hunger situation in the country. The U.N. Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates Zimbabweans need about 2 million metric tons of maize to survive. British Foreign Minister Ian McCartney in a statement to the House of Commons recently attributed the high dependence on food aid, the free fall in the economy and 3,000-percent inflation to Mugabe. With the dissatisfaction by the police and the military, traditionally Mugabe's base, many analysts believe his days are numbered and a massive uprising or coup d'etat may be in the offing. "Mugabe may eventually lose control of the military and the police. The lower rank and file are not getting paid, they are not able to feed their families and they are suffering from the economic catastrophe just like the rest of Zimbabwe," Cooke said.
Source: United Press International Email This Article
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