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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Japan government agrees plan to double sales tax
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) June 30, 2011

China reaffirms faith in Europe after Greek vote
Beijing (AFP) June 30, 2011 - China on Thursday reaffirmed its confidence in Europe's financial system after the Greek parliament approved a crucial austerity package aimed at helping Athens avoid a catastrophic default.

"We believe Europe, as a place of profound economic talent and technical foundations, can overcome its difficulties and realise the growth of its economy," foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters.

The Greek parliament on Wednesday approved 28.4 billion euros ($40 billion) in spending cuts, unlocking a much-needed 12-billion-euro payout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in the process.

The payout represents the fifth tranche of a 110-billion-euro aid package agreed last year with the EU and the IMF, and is crucial to preventing Greece from defaulting on its mammoth debts.

The parliament's vote, which sparked frenzied battles between rioters and police in Athens, helped ease mounting international concern over Greece's debt woes, and markets around the world rallied on the news.

But Hong warned that Greece's problems, along with difficulties faced by other countries, "indicate that global economic recovery is still unstable and uncertain."

Japan's government and the ruling party on Thursday agreed a plan to double sales tax by the middle of the decade, as the nation looks to tackle rising social welfare costs and ballooning debt.

However, the timing of the plan was watered down from an earlier proposal to double the tax -- currently 5 percent -- by March 2016, with no fixed date set.

Some lawmakers fear that the economy is too fragile to cope with a tax hike, despite the threat from ratings agencies of a sovereign debt downgrade.

Final approval of the plan is expected to be complicated by the fact that Prime Minister Naoto Kan is expected to resign in coming months amid opposition pressure.

Kan has faced mounting criticism for his response to the country's March 11 earthquake and tsunami disaster amid anger at his handling of the ensuing nuclear crisis and slow progress in helping victims.

The finalized tax and social security overhaul plan proposed to double the five percent consumption tax in stages "by the middle of the 2010s," Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) policy chief Koichiro Gemba told reporters.

The vague wording made it less clear how committed the government is to lifting the tax to 10 percent in the years ahead.

Expanding welfare costs have squeezed government finances in Japan, where the population is rapidly ageing while the workforce shrinks.

As tax revenues fall, Japan has seen its public debt expand to around 200 percent of GDP, the highest in the industrialised world.

Kan had made social security reform his priority amid battles with a political opposition intent on blocking government action to push him to call a general election.

When Kan brought the idea before voters in elections last year, his Democratic Party of Japan suffered a huge defeat and lost control of the upper house, effectively freezing legislative debate on the subject.

The earthquake and tsunami and the task of rebuilding devastated areas has forced Kan to review earlier policy priorities, amid concerns the cost of rebuilding would also pressure Japan's debt.

The International Monetary Fund in June suggested a consumption tax hike to about seven or eight percent from next year, and ultimately to about 15 percent in a decade.

-- Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this story --




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Think tank tips China growth at 9.5% in H1: report
Beijing (AFP) June 30, 2011 - The Chinese economy is expected to grow 9.5 percent in the first half of the year and a hard landing is "extremely unlikely", state media reported Thursday, citing a government think tank.

Inflation in the country, which has been spiralling and has sparked fears of social unrest, is forecast to rise 5.3 percent in the first half, the State Information Centre said in a report, according to the China Securities Journal.

"Currently the slowdown in China's economic growth and rises in prices are both within a controllable range," the think tank said.

Inflation in the second half of the year may slow down to between 4.5 and 5.5 percent due to the government's tightening measures and international market conditions, it added.

"It is extremely unlikely that the slowdown in China's economic growth would turn into a hard landing, as long as the world economy does not slip into a second recession," it said.

The world's second-largest economy expanded 9.7 percent in the first quarter, slightly lower than the 9.8-percent growth rate posted in the final quarter of 2010.

The consumer price index -- a key gauge of inflation -- rose 5.5 percent in May, a near-three-year high.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said this week it would be difficult to keep inflation under Beijing's target of four percent for 2011, adding that fighting rising prices remained a top government priority.

Stability-obsessed Beijing is anxious about inflation and its potential to trigger social unrest. It has been restricting bank lending and raising interest rates to stem a flood of liquidity into the economy.

The think tank suggested the central bank should use rate hikes more often in the second half of the year, given the actual deposit interest rate is now negative due to high inflation, the China Securities Journal said.





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POLITICAL ECONOMY
IMF warns US on debt; says economy still frail
Washington (AFP) June 29, 2011
The International Monetary Fund warned Wednesday that the US debt burden is perilously unsustainable but advised against too-sharp fiscal adjustments that would slow the fragile economy. In its annual assessment of the US financial situation, the IMF said that if the United States did not hike its debt ceiling soon to accommodate spending commitments, the impact could wreak havoc on global m ... read more


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