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Japan nuclear crisis mixed message for climate change

European ministers call for bolder climate emissions cut
Athens March 14, 2011 - Seven European environment ministers on Monday called for a 30 percent cut to CO2 emissions by 2020 instead of the currently targeted 20 percent reduction, Greek officials said. The ministers of Britain, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Sweden issued an open letter prompting EU states to join an "urgent debate" to find a more cost-effective route to the bloc's 2050 emission targets. "We call on all member states to enter into this urgent debate on Europe's future and agree how the roadmap is put into action," the letter said.

"Now is the right time to discuss the most cost-effective route to achieving our 2050 goals, maximising growth, jobs and prosperity throughout Europe. We are not starting from scratch; the EU has already cut emissions by 17 percent from 1990 levels by 2009," it added. "We believe it's vital such a plan starts now rather than in 40 years' time, and is a plan that can stimulate the right investment in low-carbon infrastructure and technology, putting Europe on track for a low-carbon future," the ministers said. The European Commission on Tuesday set out recommendations for EU states to radically slash CO2 emissions by 2050 but avoided upsetting governments or industry with precise targets. The European Union is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by between 80 and 95 percent from 1999 levels by the middle of the century, aiming to maintain global warming within a two degrees Celsius threshold deemed attainable and safe by governments.

Three targets have already been agreed for 2020: cutting emissions by 20 percent; having 20 percent of energy consumption coming from renewable sources by that date; and implementing energy efficiency savings of 20 percent as well. But the third objective is not binding -- and is in any case far from being achieved. Governments are reluctant to make such commitments at a time when the worldwide race for economic recovery means every competitive inch is guarded jealously. The debate is being held amid crippling EU dependency on oil and gas imports, deep social instability in north Africa and potentially the Middle East as well amid public suspicion of leaders' number one "clean energy" preference, nuclear power.
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) March 14, 2011
Japan's nuclear crisis will boost interest in clean renewables such as solar and wind power but may also sharpen demand for coal, oil and gas, whose carbon pollution drives climate change, experts said Monday.

Nuclear energy provides around 14 percent of the world's electricity mix, although this is overwhelmingly concentrated in six countries, and is not going to disappear off the map any time soon, they said.

"The accident in Japan is not a death sentence for nuclear power," stressed Jean-Marie Chevalier, an economist and energy expert at the Universite Paris Dauphine, pointing to the hundreds of billions of dollars invested in existing reactors and plants under construction.

But the scare surrounding the crippled reactors at the earthquake-struck Fukushima plant means nuclear's renaissance after the 1986 Chernobyl disaster will be crimped, at least in the short term.

Governments in India, the United States and Europe are under pressure to review safety standards or slap a moratorium on new projects, and Germany and Switzerland have already said they will be on hold plans to extend the operational life of existing plants, pending safety reviews.

"At the very least, we would expect significant investments in nuclear to be delayed, or deferred, for a period of one to two years," said Rupesh Madlani, renewables analysts at Barclays Capital in London.

In the short run, any energy shortfall in Japan, and elsewhere, will be filled by fossil fuels, said other experts.

"Disruption to the Japanese nuclear industry means that they are going to be relying increasingly on oil and gas for power generation," said Julian Lee, an analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies, a London think tank backed by the oil industry.

Jacques Percebois, head of the Centre for Research on Energy Economy and Law at Monpellier University, agreed the fossil fuel industry would be early beneficiaries as it could provide gigawatts of quick power.

"Those who declare a moratorium on new nuclear energy should understand that the available solution for meeting large-scale energy demands today is not solar panels, it's gas," he told AFP.

Burning natural gas contributes to global warming, but less so than oil, and far less than coal.

"The major risk is that, facing an energy shortage, coal-fired reactors with coal imported from Australia are built," said Cedric Philibert, an analyst in the renewable energy division of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris.

"Japan's greenhouse gas emissions would skyrocket."

At the same time, though, a slowdown in nuclear investment would also steer money into renewable energies, which since the 2008 financial crisis have been struggling to expand their share of the world's power market, several experts said.

"This should lead to an incremental upside in terms of demand for wind and solar projects," said Madlani of Barclays.

"It could mean 10 percent more wind and solar being demanded each year for the next couple of years," he told AFP.

Madlani also pointed to current high oil prices and the increasing cost of oil extraction, especially after the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

For Christiana Figueres, the United Nations' top climate change official, the meltdown will probably push up the costs of nuclear energy, making renewables more competitive.

"Japan will change mid-term world energy scenarios," she said in a Twitter message on Sunday from a meeting of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in Berlin.



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