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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Japanese inflation ticks up, but spending still weak
By Miwa SUZUKI
Tokyo (AFP) May 1, 2015


China manufacturing activity grew slightly in April: govt
Beijing (AFP) May 1, 2015 - China's manufacturing activity expanded in April for the second straight month but failed to accelerate, the government said Friday, as the world's second-largest economy struggles to pick up steam.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics came in at 50.1 last month, the same result as March when the gauge showed growth for the first time this year.

The index, which tracks activity in factories and workshops, is seen as a key barometer of the country's economic health. A figure above 50 signals growth, while anything below indicates contraction.

January's reading of 49.8 was the first shrinkage in more than two years and added to worries about China's economic outlook.

Some analysts, however, were cautiously optimistic.

"The continued expansion of the official PMI suggests that the growth momentum is picking up, though modestly, thanks to the rise of newly started projects and monetary policy easing," ANZ economists Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao wrote.

China's economy, a key driver of global growth, expanded 7.0 percent in the first quarter of 2015, against 7.3 percent in the final three months of last year, and the worst result since 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis.

The economy is also slowing on a longer-term basis. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.4 percent in 2014, the worst full-year result since 1990, when China was hit by international sanctions after the Tiananmen Square crackdown.

Chinese authorities are happy to accept a slowdown as they seek to rejig the country's economic model away from reliance on heavy investment and make consumer spending the main growth engine.

But they are sensitive to it getting out of hand and have unveiled several stimulus measures to support the economy, including two interest rate cuts since November and twice this year reducing the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve.

Economists broadly expect more such measures this year.

"As the economy still faces strong headwinds and the risk of deflation has not diminished, the authorities will need to continue to roll out easing measures in the coming months," the ANZ economists added.

There are concerns about weak inflation in China, though the consumer price index (CPI) held steady in March at 1.4 percent, the same as February.

The CPI had slumped to 0.8 percent in January, the lowest since November 2009.

But the producer price index -- a measure of costs for goods at the factory gate and a leading indicator of the trend for CPI -- declined for the 37th straight month in March, falling 4.6 percent year-on-year.

Friday's official PMI announcement comes after banking giant HSBC's own survey of manufacturing activity showed a decline to a 12-month low in April, to 49.2.

Japanese inflation picked up in March for the first time in 10 months, data showed Friday, but household spending tumbled in a worrying sign for consumer confidence.

Core inflation, excluding volatile fresh food prices, hit 2.2 percent year-on-year, accelerating from the previous month for the first time since May 2014, and offering a sliver of hope for Tokyo's war on deflation.

However, stripping out the impact of a sales tax rise last year, the rate was a tepid 0.2 percent, well short of the central bank's 2.0 percent target.

Analysts say central bank policymakers will almost certainly be forced to expand its monetary easing scheme to jack up prices and counter a downturn in the world's number three economy.

Sustained inflation is a cornerstone of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's drive to conquer stagnant or falling prices and revive growth.

"Inflation is still close to zero and could drop in the coming months," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

"The reading was a little bit positive, but worries (for the Bank of Japan) have not disappeared."

Separate figures showed household spending in March dropped almost 11 percent, the worst on record since comparable data started in 2001 and steeper than an 8.2 percent on-year decline in March 2011, when Japan was hammered by a quake-tsunami disaster and nuclear crisis.

On Thursday, the BoJ conceded the original timeline for hitting its price target would be missed, as it cut its growth and inflation forecasts.

Japan's gross domestic product will expand 2.0 percent in the year to March 2016, while the inflation rate is seen at 0.8 percent, the BoJ said in a semi-annual report. That compares with a previous estimate of 2.1 percent and 1.0 percent respectively.

- Tepid spending -

The report -- which followed a meeting where policymakers held fire on fresh stimulus -- pushed back an already murky timeline for hitting the bank's inflation target to the first half of fiscal 2016, which runs from April through September next year.

The ambitious goal was originally supposed to have been achieved around two years after the launch of the BoJ's stimulus in April 2013.

But the bank has, over time, loosened that timeline as the data suggested it was unattainable.

Weighed by a plunge in oil prices and tepid consumer spending, Japanese inflation stalled in February for the first time in nearly two years.

"It is true that the timing for achieving the 2.0 percent inflation target has been delayed," BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda told reporters on Thursday.

"But price trends are improving steadily and that is expected to continue. We don't see additional (easing) measures being necessary at this point."

Kuroda has previously acknowledged that falling oil prices hurt efforts to drive inflation, and he warned of the possibility of zero inflation as attempts to reverse of years of deflation proved to be "very challenging".

Consumers tightened their purse strings after Tokyo hiked Japan's sales levy last April and the economy fell into a brief recession. It emerged from the red in the last quarter of 2014.

Also Friday, the internal affairs ministry said the unemployment rate edged down to 3.4 percent in March from 3.5 percent in February.

Minami said BoJ policymakers could have decided to offer fresh easing measures on Thursday if they had wanted to act pre-emptively.

"But they argue the basic trend is improving. I think they are betting on a scenario in which higher wages and tightening in the labour market lead to higher prices."

Deflation may sound good for Japanese consumers, but it means people tend to put off buying because they do not expect prices to rise and hope they might even get goods cheaper down the line.

That, in turn, hurts producers and holds back their expansion and hiring plans, which is bad news for the economy.


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