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TRADE WARS
Markets 'overreacting' to trade war rhetoric: UN official
By Ben Simon
Geneva (AFP) April 11, 2018

Hong Kong dollar touches red line but no intervention as yet
Hong Kong, China (AFP) April 12, 2018 - Hong Kong's de facto central bank said it would not necessarily step into the currency market to support the local dollar despite it touching the bottom end of its trading band Thursday.

As trading began in Asia, Hong Kong's dollar fell to HK$7.85 against the US dollar -- the lower limit of its permitted HK$7.75-7.85 band -- for the first time since the range was introduced in 2005.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority said it is required to buy the local currency at HK$7.85 to US$1 under the city's Linked Exchange Rate System if such requests were made by banks.

But the authority added that this practice, known as the weak-side Convertibility Undertaking, will not be automatically triggered.

"So long as other banks are willing to buy HKD at that level, the interbank market will continue to buy and sell HKD at 7.85," the HKMA said.

Hong Kong has maintained a decades-old peg with the US dollar, which keeps the city at the mercy of Federal Reserve policymakers.

The dollar slump comes against a backdrop of rising trade tensions between China and the United States, the world's biggest economies and key drivers of global growth.

HKMA chief executive Norman Chan said in March that the weakening local dollar, driven lower by US interest rates and capital outflows "should not cause any concerns" and that the authority would take action to ensure it doesn't fall below the band.

The HKMA intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2008, buying billions of dollars to maintain the local currency's peg to the greenback.

During the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis several Asian currencies were de-pegged under severe pressure from speculators, but Hong Kong maintained the link despite having to raise interest rates to spectacular levels.

Market gyrations in response to tariff threats from political leaders show that financial traders do not grasp the intricacies of global trade, a senior UN official said Wednesday.

Arancha Gonzalez, who heads the International Trade Center (ITC), told reporters that traders have proven too sensitive in the face of "big headline announcements" and "shooting from the hip" bluster about possible protectionist moves in major economies.

"I think traders know about the global economy, but international trade procedures and rules may be a little bit too detailed for them at this point," she added.

Gonzalez, who runs a body set up by the United Nations and World Trade Organization to advise businesses, did not downplay the real impact of market swings triggered by back-and-fourth trade war threats in Washington and Beijing in recent weeks.

But she said markets have been "overreacting" to such rhetoric because they "do not understand all of (the) intricacies," especially the long journey between the announcement of a trade sanction and its implementation.

- 'Only for the weak'? -

Gonzalez said the multilateral trading system is indeed facing significant dangers, and urged global leaders to emphasise its successes in order to move forward.

"I worry a lot about the World Trade Organisation, and I worry because I see a tendency today to exaggerate its faults and ignore its success," she said. "This is not good for multilateralism."

The 164-member WTO has become one of US President Donald Trump's favourite targets.

He has called it a "disaster," a "catastrophe," and generally blamed it for giving unfairly favourable treatment to China at US expense.

"We focus on what doesn't work, and we throw away all the things that work, including all the things that make international trade work every day for everybody on this planet," Gonzalez said.

Without naming Washington, Gonzalez voiced concern over the notion that working through the multilateral system is "only for the weak," and that nations seeking to thrive in trade needed to face their rivals themselves.

Trump's trade team has expressed preference for bilateral deals while saying it would work within the WTO when it wants to and ignore WTO rulings when they violate US interests.

"I do not think that the WTO is antinomical with US interests," Gonzalez said. "The WTO is in the interest of the United States like it is in the interest of Japan like it is in the interest of China like it is in the interest of the EU."



Draghi sees little impact from trade tensions -- for now
Frankfurt Am Main (AFP) April 11, 2018 - European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi on Wednesday said the US-China trade spat has so far had little impact on the eurozone economy, but warned that the risk of further retaliation was a key concern.

"So far the direct effects of tariffs that have been imposed or announced to be imposed are not big," Draghi told students at an event in Frankfurt.

But the top central banker warned that the world had only seen "the first round" in the row between the United States and China.

"The key issue is retaliation," he warned.

US President Donald Trump last month sparked fears of a potentially devastating trade war between the world's top two economies after threatening massive tariffs on Chinese imports.

Heated rhetoric on both sides has prompted warnings of tit-for-tat measures against hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods.

But Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday soothed world markets with a conciliatory speech pledging to further open up the country's economy, ease auto tariffs and take action on intellectual property rights, all major US concerns.

In response, Trump tweeted that he was "Very thankful for President Xi of China's kind words", adding "We will make great progress together!"

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde also waded into the US-China stand-off on Wednesday, warning that protectionist trade policies would undermine global growth.

Draghi said the greatest threats to the eurozone's robust recovery came from potential new barriers to trade and geopolitical risks such as the diplomatic tensions between the European Union and Russia, and the worsening security situation in the Middle East.


Related Links
Global Trade News


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TRADE WARS
Trump sees trade deal with 'friend' Xi
Washington (AFP) April 8, 2018
US President Donald Trump on Sunday said he sees an end to the escalating trade dispute with China, after tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs and threats that rattled markets. "China will take down its trade barriers because it is the right thing to do," Trump said in a tweet. "Taxes will become reciprocal & deal will be made on Intellectual Property. Great future for both countries!" He added that he and China's President Xi Jinping "will always be friends, no matter what happens with our dispu ... read more

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