Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Earth Science News .




POLITICAL ECONOMY
GDP growth slows, Fed between rock and hard place
by Peter Morici
College Park, Md. (UPI) Jun 28, 2013


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

U.S. gross domestic product growth was revised downward for the first quarter from 2.4 to 1.8 percent because consumer spending, business investment and exports grew less than previously estimated.

Slack consumer and business spending raise questions about whether household balance sheets have strengthened enough to fuel more robust growth in the second half of 2013 as many forecasters -- in particular bank economists who tend to wear rose-colored glasses -- are anticipating.

Also, businesses remain wary about the growth of future sales and Obamacare-associated healthcare costs. They remain reluctant to invest in new equipment, expand and hire new employees.

Poorer export performance indicates the manufacturing renaissance continues to be held back by sluggish growth in Europe and protectionism and undervalued currencies in China and Japan. American manufacturers lack market opportunities abroad.

Low interest rates -- low overnight rates facilitated by Fed Open Market Operations and low long-term rates facilitated by Quantitative Easing 3 -- have inspired speculators to rush into the housing market, pushing up prices; encouraged students to take on too much debt, portending weaker consumer spending in the future; instigated easy credit terms and high transactions values for auto sales; and pushed up prices for junk bonds and kept many marginal companies in business.

If the Fed pulls back, mortgage rates will rise -- slowing the housing recovery; student borrowing will slow -- raising unemployment among 18-30 year olds and dampening consumer spending; car loans will become tougher and more expensive to get -- lowering transactions prices and sale volumes in the auto industry; and lower the prices for junk bonds -- causing bankruptcies among weaker businesses.

The Fed is between a rock and hard place. Obama administration policies have been anti-growth. For example, the failure to confront China on the yuan; failure to approve more offshore drilling; failure to properly regulate banks, causing both loan shortages for good businesses and too many bad loans for questionable enterprises; healthcare policies that raise benefits costs and slow hiring; and regulatory overreach elsewhere that stifles manufacturing investment.

This has forced the Fed to carry the ball but Fed easy-money policies are creating distortions in asset markets -- for example, elevated prices for agricultural land, homes, stocks and bonds; and too many risky derivatives.

If the Fed slows QE3, it risks torpedoing a fragile recovery. If it continues easy money policies, distortions in asset markets continue to grow and new bubbles will threaten another financial crisis.

(Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. Foll him on Twitter: @pmorici1)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

.


Related Links
The Economy






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








POLITICAL ECONOMY
Exclusive: World Bank's Kim says no country immune from turmoil over inequality
Washington (AFP) June 28, 2013
No country in the world is immune from unrest arising from poverty and inequality, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim told AFP in an exclusive interview. The protests in Brazil, Turkey, and elsewhere show that even governments that have made significant efforts already cannot let up in programs to help the poor, he said. "There's no country in the world that is immune from having this kin ... read more


POLITICAL ECONOMY
RESCUE Consortium Demonstrates Technologies for First Responders

India chopper crash kills 20 as flood rescue forges on

India rescue chopper crash death toll rises to 20

WIN-T Increment 1 Enables National Guard to Restore Vital Network Communications Following a Disaster

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Major rethink needed if chemical industry is to meet greenhouse gas targets

U.S., Japan work to analyze disaster radiation levels

Laser guided codes advance single pixel terahertz imaging

New laser shows what substances are made of; could be new eyes for military

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Scientists urge New Zealand to save 'sea hobbit'

Scientists Discover Thriving Colonies of Microbes in Ocean 'Plastisphere'

Clearing up confusion on future of Colorado River flows

Ethiopia insists on talks with Egypt to solve Nile row

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Is Arctic Permafrost the "Sleeping Giant" of Climate Change?

The rhythm of the Arctic summer

Global cooling as significant as global warming

Warm ocean drives most Antarctic ice shelf loss

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Rapid colorimetric detection technology enables illegal cooking oils with no place to hide

China officially opens EU wine investigations

How Size-related Food Labels Impact How Much We Eat

Airborne gut action primes wild chili pepper seeds

POLITICAL ECONOMY
3,000 still missing in India's flood-hit north: official

Tropical Storm Dalila strengthens on way to west Mexico

India steps up grim search for bodies in flood zone

New Jersey may have been hit by a tsunami in mid-June

POLITICAL ECONOMY
UN peacekeepers take over ahead of Mali polls

Obama: no Cold War for Africa

Nigerian troops deadly rampage in April incident: report

Mali coup leader says sorry: military source

POLITICAL ECONOMY
What Is the Fastest Articulated Motion a Human Can Execute?

Skull find challenges claim about first white man in eastern Australia

Lessons at home and homework at school in US

Social network size predicts social cognitive skills in primates




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement