Outside View: Thailand after Bhumibol

Myanmar rebels warn of election clashes
Bangkok (UPI) Mar 22, 2009 - A Myanmar ethnic rebel group warned the ruling military that clashes are inevitable in the run-up to a national election this year. The head of the Karen National Union, the political wing of the Karen National Liberation Army, joined the call by opposition groups to boycott the election, although no Election Day has been set. Zipporah Sein, head of the KNU, said ethnic minorities shouldn't vote because Myanmar's 2008 constitution doesn't recognize ethnic diversity. She said the KNLA would fight any attempt by the ruling generals to force local people to either join or form border guard militia that have been set up by the generals in some remote areas. "They then adopt regime-style policies and tactics toward the local population, committing the same atrocities as the army, such as forced displacement, rape, killing and more," she said. Sein made her warning during a news conference in Bangkok. She was sitting alongside leaders of other ethnic groups and Myanmar democracy advocates including U Thein Oo, a member of the National League for Democracy political party that operates within Myanmar.

They called on the international community tot not recognize any Myanmar election and for the regime to release all political prisoners, including the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi is leader of the National League for Democracy but she remains under house arrest in Yangon, formerly called Rangoon. Opposition leaders denounced the junta's recent election rules that exclude people with criminal pasts. Opposition groups say this is a ploy to exclude democracy advocates who have been languishing in jail as political prisoners, such as Suu Kyi, according to a report in the Thailand-based Irrawaddy magazine, which is staffed by many Myanmar exiles. The electoral laws should serve as "a wake-up call" for people who believed that by calling an election the ruling generals were serious about democracy, said U Thein Oo. He won a seat in the last general election in Myanmar, formerly called Burma. But the results of the 1990 poll were never accepted by the junta, which has maintained power since. "With more than 2,100 political prisoners in Burma, many activists and politicians will be excluded, though some queries were raised as to whether the law prevents former prisoners from remaining in a political party. We are not clear on that," he said. Despite the apparent unified front of opposition groups in Bangkok, the KNU's Sein said there won't likely be a similar unified approach within Myanmar.

The KNLA, as have dozens of other ethnic minority rebel groups, has been fighting a central government, some since the 1960s, demanding regional autonomy and a rolling back of what they see as an aggressive and heavy-handed police and military presence. For nearly 20 years the generals have been sitting down with various rebel groups to hammer out cease-fire agreements, with some going over to the generals. Last month a reporter with Irrawaddy visited a KNLA encampment high in the remote forested hills near the Thailand-Myanmar border. On a nearby hill was an encampment of the breakaway Democratic Karen Buddhist Army that separated from the KNLA in 1994. Soon after breaking away, it signed a cease-fire with the generals and members of the DKBA have been fighting against the KNLA. Media reports this week also noted a possible split within Suu Kyi's NLD over whether it should register to take part in the election. By contesting in the election, some senior members said, the party would default on its longstanding demand that the general recognize the 1990 poll, which the NLD won by a landslide.

by Stanley A. Weiss
Washington (UPI) Mar 22, 2009
Sixty years ago this week, King Bhumibol Adulyadej arrived back in Thailand. The 22-year-old had lived abroad most of his life. Named king four years earlier on his brother's death, he was coming home for his coronation. The royal navy was drawn up for review. A jet squadron soared overhead. Half a million people lined the streets in celebration. As one biographer writes, "To astrologers, the heavens proved the great event: three days before Bhumibol arrived, hail fell on Bangkok for the first time since 1933."

The Massachusetts-born, Swiss-educated, jazz-playing Bhumibol might have seemed an unlikely fit for the Thai throne. But over the decades, the king has earned Thais' reverence -- even worship -- for his generosity, humility and devotion to his people.

Paradoxically, however, the world's longest-serving monarch may be a victim of his own success -- or, more accurately, his legacy may be tarnished by the lack of a smooth succession. Now 82, Bhumibol is ailing, and no one knows what will come next, which is raising tensions and rattling investors in Bangkok and beyond, especially as the nation is embroiled in political turmoil.

The king has long been a symbol of unity in Thailand's increasingly fractious political and social arena; a trusted referee whenever conflict threatens to spiral out of control. Now, the question on many people's minds is: Can Thailand's unstable democracy outlive its beloved king?

Since 2006, when the military toppled the popularly elected prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, a fierce power struggle has divided Thai politics. Thousands of protesters, the "Red Shirts" -- mostly rural and poor and whom the ruling elite believe telecommunications billionaire Thaksin is financing and fomenting from abroad -- continue to pressure Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's government for new elections.

The "Yellow Shirts" -- monarchists, the military and urban middle class -- rightly criticize the Thaksin administration's abuses in office but their preferred alternative amounts to continued domination by Bangkok's privileged, in a country where the population's richest fifth is roughly 13 times better off than the poorest.

The Thai Supreme Court's decision in February to confiscate $1.4 billion of Thaksin's assets, stemming from charges of corruption, has prompted fears of violent confrontation between the camps. The red-shirt protesters have been demonstrating in the tens of thousands this month.

In December, a frail Bhumibol emerged from the hospital, urging Thais to put "the common interest before their own interest." But some fear that his death, whenever it occurs, will spark chaos in the country of 65 million.

The 1924 Palace Law of Succession establishes primogeniture of male heirs, suggesting Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn will try to fill his father's shoes. Unfortunately, the crown prince lacks his father's discipline and standing; one longtime Bangkok businessman told me that doubts about Vajiralongkorn's fitness for the job were "beyond any return."

Thailand's 1974 constitution declared that in the absence of a prince, parliament could pick a king's daughter to assume the throne. Many Thais feel the king's daughter, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn, would be an excellent candidate. Yet Thailand experts tell me that as long as the crown prince is alive, "the dreams of Sirindhorn succeeding are just that." They predict the crown will pass to Vajiralongkorn and that the monarchy will "be weakened and changed forever."

This will mean the transformation of politics as well. For although it is one thing to clamp down on democracy while claiming to defend a revered king -- as the aristocratic Yellow Shirts did in 2008 -- it will be much harder for monarchists to maintain their grip on authority if the monarch in question lacks mass devotion.

What about the military, responsible for 18 coups since 1935? One prominent Thai entrepreneur told me his worst-case scenario is the emergence of a young, charismatic leader at the helm of a rising red shirt movement, calling for an end to "the double standards in Thai society." This might provoke the army to feel it has the mandate to use force to preserve the status quo. Thailand-based columnist Chang Noi suspects the military may block another general election, speculating that it would likely want to overthrow the winners anyway.

The most hopeful scenario is one in which the king's passing sparks a democratic maturation -- across institutions, civil society and political classes.

The first step, however, must be a national conversation about the future. And that can't happen as long as strict lese-majeste laws render the topic of succession taboo. Bhumibol Adulyadej's name means "strength of the land, incomparable power." Perhaps the greatest gift he can give his country now is permission to start planning for life without him.

(Stanley A. Weiss, who has spent part of the year in Thailand for more than 20 years, is founding chairman of Business Executives for National Security, a nonpartisan organization in Washington. This article originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times and is appears here with the permission of the author.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

Share This Article With Planet Earth

del.icio.us	Digg	Reddit
YahooMyWeb	Google	Facebook

Related Links
Democracy in the 21st century at TerraDaily.com

Memory Foam Mattress Review

SPACE MEDIA NETWORK PROMOTIONS
Solar Energy Solutions
Tempur-Pedic Mattress Comparison ...

Newsletters :: SpaceDaily :: SpaceWar :: TerraDaily :: Energy Daily
XML Feeds :: Space News :: Earth News :: War News :: Solar Energy News

Thai tourism hit by blood-pouring protests
Bangkok (AFP) March 19, 2010
Thai tourism is taking a battering as the latest gruesome protests in Bangkok have frightened off visitors to the kingdom, better known for its white sands and smiles. Would-be tourists considering massage, temples and spicy food in the Thai capital this week may have been put off by scenes, televised worldwide, of red-clad protesters throwing bottles of their own blood at government offices ... read more

The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2010 - SpaceDaily. AFP and UPI Wire Stories are copyright Agence France-Presse and United Press International. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by SpaceDaily on any Web page published or hosted by SpaceDaily. Privacy Statement