Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. Earth Science News .




POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: U.S. economy adds 203,000 jobs
by Peter Morici
College Park, Md. (UPI) Dec 6, 2013


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

The U.S. Labor Department reported the U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs in November, in line with the progress of recent months.

Overall, the economy should be stronger in 2014, permitting the Fed to ease back on monthly bond purchases and let longer term interest rates rise modestly.

The unemployment rate fell to 7.0 percent mostly because furloughed government workers returned to their jobs.

With third quarter gross domestic product growth at 3.6 percent, businesses should be adding more jobs but much of that growth was from additions to business inventories as consumers remain tightfisted and goods stay on the shelves. Overall consumer demand contributed about 1 percentage point to growth, whereas inventories accounted for 1.7 percent.

Major apparel retailers report huge stocks of unsold goods entering the final weeks of holiday shopping. More broadly, Black Friday weekend disappointed their expectations for stronger sales than last year. These indicate much slower fourth quarter growth, as businesses slow purchases and retailers trim headcount more than usual in January.

Auto sales and rising home values remain a bright spot. With the uncertainty of new U.S. military activity in the Middle East and another government shutdown receding, consumers' confidence should strengthen through December and into the New Year.

Overall growth will be 1-2 percent in the fourth quarter and then strengthen to 2.5-3 percent in 2014. However, hiring will likely continue at its present pace or improve only moderately. Good paying full-time jobs will continue to be scarce.

Overall, jobs creation is well short of the 365,000 needed each month to reduce unemployment to 6 percent over a period of two or three years. That would require GDP growth in the range of 4-5 percent. Over the last four years, the pace has been a paltry 2.3 percent.

Obamacare health insurance mandates are increasing benefits costs for full-time employees. Along with anticipated penalties for not covering all employees working more than 30 hours per week in 2015, these will cause employers to either reconfigure toward more part-time workers or to only cautiously add workers.

Strident anti-business campaigns targeting McDonalds, Walmart and other employers of lower-skilled workers add to pressures to substitute machines for workers or move to a more part-time economy in hospitality, retailing and other activities where wages are already subpar and job security non-existent. All with lax immigration enforcement, these exacerbate income inequality.

The situation remains particularly tough for recent college graduates and older Americans and many working-age adults have quit looking for work. Adding part-timers who want full-time employment and discouraged adults, the unemployment rate becomes 13.2 percent.

Stronger growth is indeed possible. Four years into the Reagan recovery, following a recession that pushed up unemployment to higher levels than President Barack Obama faced, the economy was growing at a 4.9 percent pace and creating jobs at a breakneck pace.

Still in this environment, Federal Reserve low interest rate policies and quantitative easing (monthly purchases of $85 billion of Treasury and government-agency securities) have done about as much good as can be expected.

With a bit stronger growth beginning in 2014, look for the Fed to begin easing back on bond purchases.

The trade deficits on oil and manufactures with China subtract substantially from demand for U.S. goods, services and workers. Even with the recent surge in domestic production, petroleum imports exceed exports by more than 6 million barrels a day, and will require lifting bans on offshore drilling to eliminate. Currency manipulation and other forms of protectionism remain problems with China, Japan and Germany -- the United States' principal competitors.

Addressing those problems could add nearly more than 4 million jobs directly and 7 million jobs with the usual secondary effects, all but eliminating unemployment and substantially reducing inequality.

(Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and a widely published columnist. Follow him in Twitter: @pmorici1)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

.


Related Links
The Economy






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








POLITICAL ECONOMY
Bitcoin value slumps after China banks ban
Beijing (AFP) Dec 05, 2013
The value of Bitcoins, the volatile virtual currency that has soared in recent months and made fortunes for some, plunged Thursday after China banned its banks from providing related services and products. China has become the biggest Bitcoin market in recent months as buyers seek to profit from speculating in the currency. Prices on BTC China, the country's biggest Bitcoin trading platf ... read more


POLITICAL ECONOMY
Philippines typhoon survivors determined to hope

Philippines to seek more aid from Japan at summit

One month after super typhoon, Philippines faces huge challenges

Lebanon races to help Syria refugees ahead of storm

POLITICAL ECONOMY
SST Australia: Signed, Sealed and Ready for Delivery

Scientists build a low-cost, open-source 3D metal printer

An ecosystem-based approach to protect the deep sea from mining

Study shows how water dissolves stone, molecule by molecule

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Israel, Jordan, Palestinians to ink water-sharing deal

Precipitation declines in Pacific Northwest mountains

Environmentalists hail China's banquet ban on shark fin

Scripps Leads First Global Snapshot of Key Coral Reef Fishes

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Airborne Radar Looking Through Thick Ice During NASA Polar Campaigns

Lakes discovered beneath Greenland ice sheet

Prince Harry's South Pole race cancelled, but trek goes on

Antarctic fjords are climate-sensitive hotspots of diversity in a rapidly warming region

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Saudi, China scientists decode date-palm tree DNA

Qantas steward with Parkinson's to sue over pesticide link

IPM for Billbugs in Orchardgrass

Unlikely collaboration leads to discovery of 'gender-bending' plant

POLITICAL ECONOMY
At least 11 dead after heavy rains in northeast Brazil

Slippery clay intensified Japan 2011 tsunami-quake: scientists

Malaysia floods force more evacuations as 1 more dead

One dead, 19,000 evacuated in Malaysia floods

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Bangui residents guide French troops in weapons hunt

1,600 French troops in CAR, no fresh clashes: army

US praises French 'leadership' in C. Africa conflict

France tells Africa to take charge of security

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Domestication of dogs may have come from pre-existing capacity of wolves to learn

First evidence of primates regularly sleeping in caves

Evidence of funerary meal found at 13,000-year-old gravesite in Israel

Skull find shows women were sacrificed in ancient China




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement