Longstanding warnings from economists of global spillover from the US-China trade war appear to be materialising, with a trio of central banks springing surprise rate cuts on Wednesday and bond markets in retreat.

The bold monetary policy moves in India, New Zealand and Thailand came as industrial production in European powerhouse Germany fell back in June, adding to uncertainty in the eurozone compounded by the trade war.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to slap additional tariffs on Chinese imports, and China has now let its yuan currency fall through 7.0 against the dollar.

Trump, in a series of outbursts on Twitter, has demanded the Fed reply in kind even after the US central bank staged its first rate cut in a decade last week.

"'Three more Central Banks cut rates.' Our problem is not China..." he tweeted, attacking the Fed anew.

The Trump administration accuses Beijing of foreign exchange manipulation, fuelling fears of a currency war in addition to the trade battles.

Yields on the benchmark US Treasury and German government bonds have been charting record lows in response, suggesting trouble ahead.

The price of gold, another asset like government bonds that is seen as a safe haven, rose above $1,500 per ounce for the first time since 2013.

"(Interest) Rates falling everywhere," analysts at Moneycorp wrote.

"They may not exactly be competing but the world's central banks all seem to be pointing in the same direction towards lower rates. In every case there is concern, to a greater or lesser degree, about the global economy."

- Hit to confidence -

Second-quarter Chinese growth was already the weakest in three decades and the slowdown in Europe is potentially worsened by the chaotic politics of Britain's looming withdrawal from the European Union.

Markets had relaxed going into the northern hemisphere summer, hoping for a truce in the US-China confrontation after summit talks between Trump and President Xi Jinping in Japan in late June.

But now, Capital Economics said the deteriorating bilateral relationship "looks set to get even worse".

The group's chief emerging markets economist William Jackson said that "with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to confidence, tighter financial conditions and weaker investment risk becoming larger" to emerging markets (EM).

But he concluded that the impact on those markets from the supply chain was probably manageable, and so "the net effect on EM exports is unlikely to be very large".

- Run for the hills? -

Philippe Waechter, research director at Ostrum Asset Management, said Trump's actions had "increased the risk of deterioration or rupture, but we are not yet at the 'head for the hills' point'".

"The global economy is slowing but we are not at the breaking point yet," he said.

Other observers, however, are sounding the alarm bell ever louder.

In late July, the International Monetary Fund revised its 2019 global growth forecast lower to 3.2 percent.

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath noted that "tensions could flare up again and play out in other areas (such as the auto industry) with large disruptions to global supply chains."

Rajiv Biswas of the IHS Markit group told AFP: "We are in a very dangerous environment for world trade."

If import prices continue to go up and currency devaluations hamper consumption, the United States could suffer blowback from Trump's trade battles.

"The US economy is probably in a weaker state than we imagine," Waechter said.

The US economy, which has witnessed an exceptionally long period of growth, is flagging with job creation and exports both down.

The Federal Reserve cut its headline interest rate last week for the first time in 11 years, noting in the words of Fed chief Jerome Powell "downside risks from weak global growth and trade policy uncertainty".

But the Fed has made it clear that it cannot accede to Trump's strident demands to respond to China's currency "manipulation".

In an interview with AFP on Tuesday, Fed policy board member James Bullard said "we can't realistically move monetary policy in a tit-for-tat trade war".

If the trade war worsens, central banks might find themselves without effective ways of dealing with it, Waechter warned.

"They don't have much more room for manoeuvre," he said.

In India, the reserve bank cut its main repo rate by a bigger-than-expected 35 basis points, arguing: "Domestic economic activity continues to be weak, with the global slowdown and escalating trade tensions posing downside risks."

US 'heartland' companies balk at latest Trump tariffs
New York (AFP) Aug 7, 2019 - The cost of President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on Chinese goods will either be passed on to consumers, or taken from profits, several US companies said Wednesday.

"The American people are being misled by this administration that China is paying for these tariffs. This is a tax on them, or on the businesses that are bringing products to America," said Win Cramer, chief executive of Jlab Audio, a California company that makes headphones.

Cramer, who has suspended plans to hire more staff in light of the tariff threat, joined a conference call organized by "Tariffs Hurt the Heartland," a campaign of trade organizations to a policy of a president who has referred to himself as "tariff man."

The group released data showing US consumers paid $6 billion in tariffs in June, up 74 percent from the year-ago period.

The conference call was organized in response to Trump's announcement last week of plans to enact a 10 percent tariff on $300 billion in Chinese goods on September 1, a move that would affect a broad swathe of consumer goods spared in earlier tariff rounds.

Separately, Consumer Technology Association warned Trump's latest tariffs could lift payments on electronics and other items by $1 billion or more.

Participants said it is difficult in many cases to find suitable alternative suppliers to China because they may lack infrastructure or knowhow on meeting US safety standards, such as for lead-free toys and other items.

Also, emerging manufacturing centers such as India and Vietnam may be reluctant to invest heavily in costly new infrastructure in case of a sudden US policy reversal under a sudden deal with China.

Hiking prices would dent sales, while a decision to eat the costs would harm the business, companies said.

"We'll have to face very tough decisions, including job losses and store closures," said Wade Miquelon, chief executive of Joann Stores, an Ohio-based chain of craft stores.

Jay Foreman, chief executive Basic Fun! Toys, a Florida toymaker and distributor that imports from China, said some of his retail partners plan to hike prices this Christmas by 10 to 20 percent, while others will hold off in the 2019 season but lift prices next year.

The coalition plans additional local events and lobbying efforts to encourage Congress to scrutinize the Trump administration's trade policies, said David French, senior vice president of government relations at the National Retail Federation.

"The tariffs so far have been on the margins of the economy," French said. "So what's happened to date is not an indicator of what to expect."

China's exports unexpectedly rise in July
Beijing (AFP) Aug 8, 2019 - China's exports beat expectations to rise in July while its purchases continued to shrink, official data showed Thursday, despite simmering US trade tensions.

The trade war with the United States and weakening global demand had weighed on China's manufacturing sector during the first six months of the year, with its global exports roughly flat from a year earlier.

But in July China's exports rose 3.3 percent on-year, the customs administration's figures showed, ahead of the one percent drop forecast by a Bloomberg News poll.

China's economy slowed to 6.2 percent growth in the second quarter, the slowest quarterly pace in nearly 30 years.

But it does not look to be out of the woods yet, with shrinking imports pointing to weak demand at home.

Imports fell 5.6 percent on-year in July, contracting for the third consecutive month -- though by less than the forecast 9 percent drop.

China's trade surplus fell to $45.1 billion for the month, from $51.0 billion in June.

The trade war with the US has escalated in recent weeks, with President Donald Trump vowing to add 10 percent tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese imports starting on September 1, extending punitive tariffs to nearly every product.

Beijing fired back by allowing its currency, the yuan or renminbi, to weaken and by suspending purchases of American farm goods.

Exports to the US in July fell 6.5 percent on-year while imports dropped 19.1 percent, bringing China's surplus with the US down slightly from June to $28 billion in July.

"Exports still look set to remain subdued in the coming quarters as any prop from a weaker renminbi should be overshadowed by further US tariffs and broader external weakness," said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics.

"August exports may benefit from some front-loading before the new tariffs go into effect on September 1st, this bump will probably be smaller than it was ahead of earlier rounds of tariffs as US port storage facilities have little spare capacity," he said in a note.

China's retaliatory tariffs on soybeans and other US agricultural goods have bruised American farmers, who have been bailed out with subsidies from the Trump administration.

China's customs data showed the value of its soybean imports down 17.1 percent in the first seven months of the year.

"As they have learned in the last two years, our great American Farmers know that China will not be able to hurt them in that their President has stood with them and done what no other president would do - And I'll do it again next year if necessary!" Trump tweeted on Tuesday.

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Trump wants trade pact with China but must be 'right deal': W.House advisor
Washington (AFP) Aug 6, 2019
President Donald Trump wants a trade agreement with China but it must be "the right deal," White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Tuesday. Kudlow's remarks came as markets attempted a recovery from Monday's deep sell-off, prompted by a sudden escalation in the US-China trade since last week. "The president was not happy with the progress" of talks in Beijing earlier this month, Kudlow told CNBC. "The president is defending the American economy" against "a lot of unfair trading practices. ... read more